CENTRAL BANK · FX AND RESERVES
Central Bank of Venezuela
The Central Bank of Venezuela sets the official exchange rate, manages international reserves and publishes monetary indicators. Its decisions shape funding costs and the hard-currency planning of any operation in the country.
VE Pulses
40Venezuela oil exports fall 25% in October as PDVSA holds the line on price despite freight
In September traders were asking for a discount to cover freight; in October PDVSA did not grant it, and it was volume that gave way.
PDVSA gives six to seven years to the million barrels NABEP calls near-term
Until now NABEP set the timeline for the million barrels; a PDVSA vice president has just given a much longer one, and the operator’s latest figure covers a single day.
Caracas must pay first for GE Vernova to start repairing Corpoelec's power grid
Since the September agreement, the obstacle is no longer technical: engineering is done and contractors are lined up, but the company will not carry out work without being paid first, and the government has said nothing in public about when it will pay.
Venezuela's BCV and Finance Ministry bet on two-digit inflation in 2027 with no target for the bolívar
The target requires breaking 2026's pace, and the agreement rests it on two things Caracas does not control: oil revenue, held in custody by Washington, and foreign lending.
Venezuela's election clock starts with a vacancy Washington places after a new TSJ and a new CNE
The State Department published on Monday the order it expects: the Supreme Court first, then an electoral council with no power to bar candidates and, last, the vacancy that opens the election. Caracas has not confirmed it.
Machado returns to Caracas with no public guarantees from the government and outside the dialogue table
Until Saturday, the opposition leader was trying to return from Panama; since Sunday she is in Caracas, with a travel ban and a disqualification that, by reported accounts, remain in force, and outside a table that put off electoral council reform.
From 132,000 to 44,000: SENIAT cuts the list of special taxpayers that withhold VAT
Those who leave the list stop withholding the tax from their suppliers and file it once a month, not every two weeks. Fiscal printers, meanwhile, stopped being mandatory on Wednesday.
What comes first for Citgo: the Third Circuit ruling or the OFAC license Amber needs?
The judges heard Venezuela, PDVSA and Gold Reserve on Wednesday without setting a date to rule, and the $5.9 billion bid remains approved in the meantime.
Rubio wants Reliance to refine more Venezuelan crude, with Maduro-era sanctions still in place
The United States already takes more than half of the crude Venezuela exports; its secretary of state visits the owner of the world's largest refining complex today to get it to process more, and concedes there are prior sanctions to work through, without saying which.
Over wages of $5 a week, PDVSA workers idle boats on Lake Maracaibo
The crews that serve PDVSA on the lake, on wages their union puts at five dollars a week, joined the retirees' protests on Monday in the basin where the company wants 400,000 barrels a day before December.
The World Bank's first loan to Venezuela since 2005 waits on the country paying its overdue debt to the IDB and CAF
Venezuela has not received a World Bank loan since 2005; the bank now has a portfolio, an amount and a first operation for water and electricity, and the next step is the country's: catching up with the other multilateral lenders.
Venezuelan crude halves its discount to Brent in two months
In July, the Venezuelan benchmark sold $16.61 below Brent; in September, $8.27. With output nearly flat, the month's gain came from price.
Calixto Ortega takes the IMF a plan for the bolívar to cover every domestic transaction in Venezuela
Before the Fund, the vice president for the economy ruled out dollarization. The plan published by the central bank leaves the dollar to foreign trade and sets two-digit inflation as the condition, with no date to reach it.
Washington declines to weigh in on Citgo, and Venezuela heads to the October 21 hearing without its support
Gold Reserve backed the pause only if Washington did too, and Washington abstained. The sale of Citgo's parent now hangs on the judges' ruling and on the OFAC license Amber is still waiting for.
The IMF estimates Venezuela's GDP grew 9% in 2025, six times what it calculated in April
The Fund's new series shows a deeper fall between 2018 and 2020 and a faster recovery since 2022. In the same tables, projected inflation rises and the external surplus it expected in April turns into a deficit.
The round of talks Washington announced for Wednesday the 14th puts the Supreme Court ahead of the electoral council
After two rounds in Caracas, Washington put the order of the negotiation in writing: first the 32 justices, by December; the overhaul of the electoral authority, in rounds that still have no date.
Delcy Rodríguez sets a year-end deadline for the law opening Corpoelec's power grid to private companies
The bill letting private companies into generation, transmission and distribution has been waiting for its second reading since June 2. Before the country's largest business federation, the acting president said it will pass before the year is out.
Pacific Coast Energy promises to double crude output at two PDVSA blocks claimed by former partners
On July 30 the company said it was finalizing the contracts; on October 7 it confirmed it runs both blocks with full operational control. Its release mentions no OFAC license and none of the partners claiming the fields.
A ruptured gas line leaves Cardón, PDVSA's second-largest refinery, shut with no restart date
Cardón was already running without one crude unit and its catalytic cracker, idled in September for lack of feedstock; now all its plants are in emergency shutdown. PDVSA rules out major damage and says it has inventories, but sets no date to restart.
Domestic market first, LNG later: the order of Baker Hughes' gas alliance with PDVSA
The official note on Friday the 2nd's meeting with the acting president mentioned no signing; on Monday the 5th, Baker Hughes announced a framework signed with PDVSA and two US partners. Each project will need its own definitive agreement and an OFAC authorization.
The State Department swears in the Maduro case that only Delcy Rodríguez can act for Venezuela
March's recognition rested on a statement and a speech by Trump. Since Friday the 2nd it rests on a sworn declaration, which prosecutors in New York are using to deny Maduro head-of-state immunity.
The United States took almost six of every ten barrels of oil Venezuela exported in September
Venezuela exported 9% less oil in September than in August, while trading houses pressed for bigger discounts to cover freight. Shipments fell to Europe and India and rose to the United States.
One Planta Centro unit in Carabobo carries almost half of Corpoelec's 1,300-megawatt plan
The state power company's plan adds 1,300 megawatts through December from existing units returning to service. It does not say how many of the 4,800 thermal megawatts the acting president set in August for year-end are already online.
GeoPark puts 2038 on Bare and leaves the heavy spending for after 2028
The $7 billion attached to the field in the headlines adds up capital and operating spending, not just investment. What the company gave this week is the pace: the 90,000-barrel-a-day target is set for 2038, and heavier spending comes after 2028.
Venezuelan methanol enters an OFAC license when it was already almost a quarter of US imports
Metor, the Jose plant in which the state holds 37.5%, kept selling in the United States while sanctions were in force. Since Monday the license names the product and lets the state partner in, with its payment routed to the Treasury account.
Stripe backs dollar accounts for Venezuelans under a humanitarian OFAC license expiring October 23
Two apps offer users in Venezuela virtual accounts with US account numbers, backed by Bridge, Stripe's subsidiary, and by Lead Bank. UglyCash credited its return to the humanitarian channel opened after the June earthquake, and its contract limits deposits to that aid.
Corpoelec rations what it has, and Zulia waits until January 2027 for Termozulia units
The head of Corpoelec, the state power company, put the wait for a part for its plants at more than a year on Wednesday, with demand at its highest in nine years. Anyone planning 2027 in Venezuela does so with rationing inside the budget.
Freight from José to the Gulf went from $1.90 to $5 a barrel and it is pressing the price of Merey
Until now the argument about the Venezuelan barrel was how much gets produced and who buys it. The cost of moving it has multiplied two and a half times in nine months, and the houses that ship more than half of exports want that difference taken out of the price.
The IDB puts Venezuela's power grid in a two-year plan and the debt owed to the bank stays undated
The bank stopped approving new loans to Venezuela in May 2018. Its president described on Monday the missions preparing the document for the next two years, without saying how the overdue payments get settled or when disbursement could resume.
TotalEnergies signs with PDVSA without being one of the six companies Washington authorizes by name
The annex that names authorized operators in writing has not added a company since June. On Saturday one that is not on it signed at Miraflores, and no fields, amounts or timetable were disclosed.
Heeney Capital takes El Callao's gold in Guayana with a concession
In May, the same parties signed a memorandum of understanding over that district; on Wednesday, in Houston, they signed the concession. Between one instrument and the other lies a difference of legal category, and it decides whether a right can be enforced.
Venezuelan crude reaches the United States at a record pace and Washington will not say what the Treasury holds
Last week it was 782,000 barrels a day, the largest volume of the year. What those cargoes pay is held in custody by Washington, and on Tuesday the man who holds it appeared before Congress without giving the balance.
BCV scraps the commercial credit ceiling and makes 16% the floor for bolivar loans
The repealed resolution set a band: no more than 16% a year, no less than 13%. The one in force since Tuesday deletes the ceiling and leaves that same 16% as the minimum. The bank's press note announced what it will pay on deposits; what borrowing will cost sits in the official gazette.
OFAC's GL 52C lets a sanctioned official sign for PDVSA
Until last night, a sanctioned officer signing was enough to make the transaction prohibited, and the contract stalled in its last box. The same document closes the door on the Citgo structure in Delaware, by name.
Chevron will pay for Carabobo out of its joint ventures' cash, declaring a total cost under $20 a barrel
The September 2 release said how much it would invest and over what period. What Mike Wirth added on Friday says where the money comes from — whatever cash the three operating joint ventures generate, with none brought in from outside.
Merey gained more from price in August than PDVSA gained from every extra barrel
OPEC published price and volume in the same table on Thursday, and they do not weigh the same. On the month's volume, the price rise added some eleven million dollars a day; the extra barrels added seventy-seven thousand.
Nabors dates its Venezuela return for 2027; NABEP, Washington's operator, counted six rigs this year
The deal's operator placed six rigs drilling before December. The two suppliers that filed on Tuesday with the securities regulator date something else: one rig starting in 2027 and components for ten more only now leaving the United States.
Washington pays nothing for 35% of NABEP and can veto every board appointment
The first reading was that of a passive stake. The official fact sheet documents the opposite: a mandatory U.S.-citizen majority on the board. What it does not document is whether that third is shares or the right to buy them.
India and Europe absorbed in August the barrels PDVSA stopped sending to the United States
Total loadings did not move. What moved was the split: the United States came off a July record and fell, India rose by two thirds and Europe nearly tripled.
Eni replaces PDVSA at Junín-5: the field produces 5% of what was promised for 2018
Since 2010 the field was run by a joint venture with PDVSA holding 60% and the spending shared. The contract Eni signed on Wednesday takes it out of the operation and, on the terms January's law set, leaves the state carrying no debt: the operator is paid a percentage of metered barrels.
Analysis
08Investing in Venezuela in 2026: position is being bought, big money waits
Commercial lobbying on Venezuela in Washington rose almost eightfold while the central bank still records a net outflow of direct investment. What comes in buys licenses, operating contracts and distribution networks; large capital waits for the Supreme Court, Citgo and the debt.
Two Venezuelas? The IMF sees 9% growth; the minimum wage is still 130 bolívares
The IMF’s new series matches the central bank’s: 9% in 2025, with oil growing 15% and government consumption 0.6%. Growth reaches those paid in dollars by a company, not the public payroll, stuck at 130 bolívares since 2022. The pay rule announced for 2027 proposes tying remuneration to GDP.
SENIAT: Venezuela collects 37.6% more in dollars and 25.8% more in real terms
SENIAT reported $1.198 billion in September 2026, converted at the central bank's official rate, which rose less than inflation. Deflated by the consumer price index, the increase is 25.8%. March was the year's peak, April and July were not published, and it is not on record whether the totals include oil taxes that OFAC sends to the Treasury fund.
Venezuela’s central bank sells dollars at a record pace and the bolívar keeps sliding: why, and for how long
The Central Bank is selling dollars like never before — US$7.897 billion in seven months, nearly triple 2025 — and still the bolívar keeps sliding. The answer is not how much it sells, but where that money comes from, and where it does not.
Venezuela GDP Q1 2026 (+2.5%): BCV transparency and the road to IMF Article IV
The Central Bank of Venezuela released first-quarter 2026 results on May 20 after sixteen months of statistical opacity. GDP +2.5% year-on-year — slowest expansion since Q2 2021 —, non-oil +3.11%, hydrocarbon sector -2.12%, Financial Services +13.46%, Construction -18.30%. The release frames the reactivation with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and opens the path toward the first IMF technical mission in June or July and eventually to the Article IV consultation pending since 2004.
Venezuela, day 110: the institutional map and the decisions still pending
On April 3, the 90-day constitutional term expired without a formal extension vote or declaration of permanent vacancy. At day 110, the economic architecture advanced: 13 GLs, hydrocarbons and mining reforms, BCV desanctioned. The political architecture — CNE, Electoral Statute, convocation, roadmap — did not. This analysis documents facts, separates confirmed from disputed, and maps pending decisions.
New BCV President Amid Full Reconnection: What to Expect from Luis Pérez and Why Timing Matters
Delcy Rodríguez appointed Luis Pérez as new BCV president after Laura Guerra's resignation. The change occurs in the densest week for Venezuela's financial system in a decade.
GL-57: Venezuela's financial reconnection and what it means for the investor
For the first time in seven years, the BCV operates in dollars. Bessent backs IMF return. $4.9B in SDRs await release.
Sector Briefs
06Mining Law, GL 55, and the real Arco Minero: the legal framework arrived before territorial control
Mining Brief April 2026. Organic Mining Law passed April 9, GL 55 since March 27, Burgum-Trafigura $100M gold shipment. The pilot architecture works; institutional scale requires the regulation, the Superintendency and a first formal announcement from a Western major.
The oil opening in numbers: regulatory framework, production, OFAC licenses
The oil opening in numbers. Regulatory framework, production, OFAC licenses, and the players positioning themselves.
The bi-monetary economy grows double digits while the bolivar loses a quarter of its value
The macroeconomic outlook evaluated for the investor. GDP, inflation, exchange rate, budget and monetary policy.
Financial sector: between the 73% reserve requirement and $20B in unregulated USDT
Banking, fintech, stablecoins, digital payments and credit. What works, what doesn't, and where the opportunity lies.
SEZs, manufacturing and foreign trade: the non-oil economy under the microscope
SEZs, manufacturing, foreign trade and telecommunications. The non-oil economy under the microscope.
Multidimensional assessment: political, regulatory, operational, fiscal, sanctions, legal, social and exchange rate
Multidimensional assessment: political, regulatory, operational, fiscal, sanctions, legal, social and FX.
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