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PROPRIETARY EDITORIAL RATING · vv1.2
VE Score
Monthly editorial rating of Venezuela investment environment. 4 sectors + country aggregate.
VE-COUNTRY
57
April 2026
VERDICT
EN OBSERVACIÓN
↑↑ (+7)
Upstream
Brief VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM mayo 2026. El upstream entra en fase de ejecución contractual: exportaciones cruzan 1.23M bpd en abril (máximo en 7 años, +14% intermensual), Chevron en su call Q1 (1 may) confirma Venezuela = 1–2% del CFO (cash flow operativo) con cuenta por cobrar de $1.5B en amortización a 2027 y sin compromiso de capex incremental antes de clarificación fiscal. GL 5W (4 may) extiende protección bono PDVSA 2020 hasta 19 jun — extensión más corta en dos años, señal de coordinación Treasury con proceso judicial Citgo en Delaware. Repsol Petroquiriquire, Eni Junín-5 y Maurel & Prom operativos bajo GL 50A.
Power Sector
VE-ENERGY April brief. GL 48A active, Wright in February, Siemens/GE inspections in March, Delcy announcement in April. The legal-enablement layer is closed; payment mechanism and power reform are not. The power constraint ceilings oil production at 1.2M bpd.
Mining
Mining Brief April 2026. Organic Mining Law passed April 9, GL 55 since March 27, Burgum-Trafigura $100M gold shipment. The pilot architecture works; institutional scale requires the regulation, the Superintendency and a first formal announcement from a Western major.
Energy
The oil opening in numbers. Regulatory framework, production, OFAC licenses, and the players positioning themselves.
Finance
Banking, fintech, stablecoins, digital payments and credit. What works, what doesn't, and where the opportunity lies.
Macro
The macroeconomic outlook evaluated for the investor. GDP, inflation, exchange rate, budget and monetary policy.
Country Risk
Multidimensional assessment: political, regulatory, operational, fiscal, sanctions, legal, social and FX.
Sector Outlooks
Enter oil now?
7 permanent OFAC licenses. Reformed law with arbitration. Production above 1M bpd. Risk: PDVSA debt and logistical bottlenecks.
$20B in USDT without regulated custody
73% reserve requirement compresses formal banking. Crypto dominates exchanges. Opportunity in fintech and dollar credit.
SEZs as the gateway
100% ISLR refund for 6 years. Non-oil GDP +13.9%. The lowest labor cost in the hemisphere.
Gold, minerals and GL 51
GL 51 authorizes gold. Mining Law in second reading. Mining Arc unexplored by institutional capital.
The assessment no one else does with this granularity
8 risk dimensions evaluated individually. Composite rating UNDER OBSERVATION with favorable outlook. Reforms heading in the right direction but debt is a minefield.
Venezuelan power sector: the master key that determines whether the oil opening works or stalls
Without stable electricity, refineries cannot operate, production cannot scale, and the domestic economy stalls. GL 48A opened the legal door. Siemens and GE have already assessed Guri. But no contract has been signed.
Banking post-GL 57: regulated stablecoin custody determines when institutional capital enters
VE-FIN · UNDER OBSERVATION. Trigger: explicit OFAC/FinCEN authorization for USDT custody by an authorized Venezuelan bank, or SUDEBAN regulation on fiat-crypto rails. First-mover window: 6-9 months before regional competition arrives.