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PROPRIETARY EDITORIAL VERDICT · vv1.5
VE Score
Monthly editorial rating of Venezuela investment environment. 4 sectors + country aggregate.
VE-COUNTRY
59
July 2026
VERDICT
EN OBSERVACIÓN
↓ (-3)
PROPRIETARY TRACKER · UPDATED DAILY
OFAC Venezuela License Tracker
Status of every OFAC General License on Venezuela: scope, expirations, sector implications.
ACTIVE
21
licenses
Energy · Refining & Upgraders
The country produces crude at seven-year highs and refines at a quarter of installed capacity. Art. 43 of the Regulation grants up to −5 points of the rate to projects with integrated upgrading or refining: the only incentive aimed at that gap.
Energy · Domestic Power
Corpoelec issued no statement establishing the cause of the July 27 episode. June's three capital approaches still have not turned into capacity delivered to the grid, and the system reliability sub-index remains at 22 out of 100.
Upstream
The Ministry of Hydrocarbons denied an extension of the contract migration deadline. Chevron declared 280,000 bpd in its joint ventures and confirmed it is negotiating fiscal terms. The United States absorbed ~786,000 bpd in July, the highest since early 2019.
Finance · Banking & Bonds
The short, successive extensions of the collateral signal a live negotiation whose calendar governs the contractual maturity. Financial activity grew 26.26% in the second quarter with private credit blocked by a 73% reserve requirement.
Macro · Regulatory Framework
The official rate rose 19.84% in July, but in August the slide eases to 5.09%. The central bank reported 7.14% growth in the second quarter and the Fund projects 4% for the year: nothing available today arbitrates between the two figures.
Country Risk
The Venezuelan file operates on two clocks: an external one producing verifiable acts at a reliable cadence, and an internal one whose statements have no associated indicator. Reconstruction is the best available proxy for state execution capacity.
Sectors · Telecom
The Maiquetía terminal opening set for August 24 did not happen and that day's drill closed with no date. The September 1 in circulation sits in reservation systems, not in an official act: what is missing is slot assignment, and United already moved its route to January 2027.
Sector Outlooks
Enter oil now?
7 permanent OFAC licenses. Reformed law with arbitration. Production above 1M bpd. Risk: PDVSA debt and logistical bottlenecks.
$20B in USDT without regulated custody
73% reserve requirement compresses formal banking. Crypto dominates exchanges. Opportunity in fintech and dollar credit.
SEZs as the gateway
100% ISLR refund for 6 years. Non-oil GDP +13.9%. The lowest labor cost in the hemisphere.
Gold, minerals and GL 51
GL 51 authorizes gold. Mining Law in second reading. Mining Arc unexplored by institutional capital.
The assessment no one else does with this granularity
8 risk dimensions evaluated individually. Composite rating UNDER OBSERVATION with favorable outlook. Reforms heading in the right direction but debt is a minefield.
Venezuelan power sector: the master key that determines whether the oil opening works or stalls
Without stable electricity, refineries cannot operate, production cannot scale, and the domestic economy stalls. GL 48A opened the legal door. Siemens and GE have already assessed Guri. But no contract has been signed.
Banking post-GL 57: regulated stablecoin custody determines when institutional capital enters
VE-FIN · UNDER OBSERVATION. Trigger: explicit OFAC/FinCEN authorization for USDT custody by an authorized Venezuelan bank, or SUDEBAN regulation on fiat-crypto rails. First-mover window: 6-9 months before regional competition arrives.