The bi-monetary economy grows double digits while the bolivar loses a quarter of its value
The macroeconomic outlook evaluated for the investor. GDP, inflation, exchange rate, budget and monetary policy.
Official BCV: 451 Bs/USD · complementary: ~560-650 Bs · Spread: 25-30% · INPC inflation Feb: 14.6% monthly (618% annualized) · Reserves: $14.125M · 80% of foreign exchange transactions via crypto platforms. Oil revenues are channeled to accounts supervised by the U.S. Treasury through a trust in Qatar.
Oil revenues ($863M January 2026) → U.S. Treasury custody (Foreign Gov. Deposit Funds) → BCV / Budget (Conditional release)
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FURTHER READING
04The clock that forces Venezuela to call elections runs out this week, held by those who least want them
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Venezuela macro May 2026: IMF reconnection, ~$13B reserves, GL 58 opens restructuring, ICJ Essequibo hearings close
Macro Sector Brief · Venezuela May 2026: BCV publishes on time, ~$13B reserves ($12.995M as of May 19) with $5B mobilizable SDR, IMF/World Bank resume after 7 years, OFAC issues GL 58 for restructuring advisory, ICJ closes Essequibo oral hearings. Regulatory framework under EO 14373 and the 2026 cascade of General Licenses.
Fiscal Sovereignty in Custody: Who Signs Off on Every Dollar of Venezuelan Oil
Since Executive Order 14373, Venezuela’s oil revenue flows into accounts custodied by the U.S. Treasury and is spent through a monthly budget approved by the State Department. Some ~US$8 billion moved in four months, with audits announced but unpublished. For the investor, the double lock is both a guarantee —less revenue diversion— and a risk —State discretion, opacity and Washington politics— in the same mechanism.
GL 60 — Earthquake Relief Efforts (through October 23, 2026)
Authorizes, through 12:01 a.m. eastern time on October 23, 2026, transactions ordinarily incident and necessary to earthquake-relief efforts following the June 24, 2026 earthquake in Venezuela that would otherwise be prohibited by the Venezuela Sanctions Regulations (31 CFR part 591), including those involving the Government of Venezuela and SDNs sanctioned under the executive orders incorporated into the VSR. Note 1 covers the processing and transfer of funds on behalf of third-country persons in support of relief and lets U.S. financial institutions and money transmitters rely on the originator to establish compliance. Does not unblock blocked property and does not cover ordinary activity (routine remittances, general commerce).
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