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Analysis and perspectives
Strategic reading of events that move the Venezuelan economic board.
Three Scenarios for Venezuela H2 2026: What Happens if Reforms Accelerate, Stall, or Collapse
Rating BB- · Positive outlook. Three months after Maduro's capture, Venezuela has produced more legal reforms than in the past decade. But oil majors call them inadequate, productivity is the hemisphere's lowest, and PDVSA's debt has no restructuring plan. This analysis evaluates three possible paths for the second half — and what each means for investors.
GL 51 + Mining Law: Venezuela's Mining Opening Accelerates and Stalls in the Same Week
Rating B- · Positive outlook. OFAC authorized Venezuelan gold exports to the U.S. on March 6. Burgum visited Caracas with 26 mining companies. The National Assembly approved the Mining Law in first reading on March 9. But the second reading stalled after 12 of 130 articles. What looked like a sprint became an obstacle course — with gold, diamonds, and rare earths as the prize.
$391 Per Worker: Venezuela's Productivity Collapse and What It Means for Anyone Who Wants to Produce There
Rating B- · Positive outlook. Real output per worker in Venezuela fell from $1,014 in 2008 to $391 in 2025. To match the output of one American worker, you need 286 Venezuelans. The most devastating number in the country isn't inflation or debt — it's productivity. And no OFAC license fixes it.
Oil Majors Tell Washington What It Doesn't Want to Hear: Venezuela's Reform Is "Woefully Inadequate"
Rating B · Positive outlook. At CERAWeek Houston, the CEOs of ConocoPhillips and Chevron — the two most important companies for Venezuela's oil future — publicly stated that OFAC licenses are not enough. They need fiscal reform, legal certainty, and a debt repayment plan. Licenses open the door; the local framework determines if anyone walks through it.
General License 52: OFAC Unlocks PDVSA for U.S. Companies and Rewrites the Rules of Venezuelan Oil
Rating B+ · Positive outlook. GL 52 is the broadest authorization Washington has issued on Venezuela since sanctions were imposed. It allows established U.S. companies to operate directly with PDVSA without a specific license. Contracts under U.S. law, payments to Treasury, and exclusion of Russia, Iran, China, and Cuba. Venezuelan oil wasn't set free — it changed wardens.
$20B in USDT, Zelle as payment method: informal dollarization reached a point of no return
Venezuela operates with three simultaneous currencies without any authority designing it. The exchange spread exceeds 31%. Informal dollarization is an irreversible fact.
U.S. downgrades travel advisory to Level 3: what it means for tourism and investment
First downgrade since 2019. Level 3 unlocks corporate insurance and due diligence travel. Real impact in Caracas and central coast. Deep interior remains in another category.
Rodriguez replaces the longest-serving Defense Minister of Chavismo: the silent purge reorganizing Venezuelan military power
General Vladimir Padrino, 11 years at the helm of the Ministry of Defense and pillar of Maduro's power apparatus, is replaced by Gustavo González López — head of the presidential guard and Rodriguez's military counterintelligence. This is not a transition: it is consolidation.