VENEECONOMIST
Analysis · APRIL 28, 2026

Venezuela, day 110: the institutional map and the decisions still pending

On April 3, the 90-day constitutional term expired without a formal extension vote or declaration of permanent vacancy. At day 110, the economic architecture advanced: 13 GLs, hydrocarbons and mining reforms, BCV desanctioned. The political architecture — CNE, Electoral Statute, convocation, roadmap — did not. This analysis documents facts, separates confirmed from disputed, and maps pending decisions.

VE-MACRO · UNDER OBSERVATION. On January 5, Delcy Rodríguez assumed the acting presidency under Article 234 of the Constitution. On April 3, the initial 90-day term expired. There was no formal declaration of permanent vacancy, nor an extension vote by the National Assembly. The constitutional framework designed for this scenario did not activate an electoral mechanism nor formalize continuity. This analysis documents verifiable facts at day 110, separates what is confirmed from what is reported-but-disputed, and maps the decisions no actor has formally taken.

The Rubio three-phase plan — stabilization, recovery, transition — was presented in classified Senate and House briefings in January. Rubio offered no election timeline.

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FURTHER READING

04
VE PULSE · 05-OCT-2026

The State Department swears in the Maduro case that only Delcy Rodríguez can act for Venezuela

March's recognition rested on a statement and a speech by Trump. Since Friday the 2nd it rests on a sworn declaration, which prosecutors in New York are using to deny Maduro head-of-state immunity.

ANÁLISIS · ENERGÍA · GAS TRANSFRONTERIZO

Dragon field: Venezuela's gas for Shell and Trinidad waits on three keys

Venezuela licensed Dragon to Shell and NGC in 2023 with a 20% royalty and a floor of 45% of gross revenue. Under OFAC's General License 50C, those payments would go to the Treasury fund whose disbursement the State Department decides, and Trinidad and Tobago admits it has no fiscal framework for imported gas. Three scenarios and their signals.

OFAC · GL 48D

GL 48D — Supply of Goods and Services to Venezuela

Authorizes the supply from the U.S. or by a U.S. person of goods, technology, software or services for oil, gas and petrochemical exploration, development and production —including maintenance and repair of equipment—, and for electricity generation, transmission, storage and distribution in Venezuela. As of September 28, 2026, the petrochemical annex lists methanol. The formation of new joint ventures remains outside the license. Supersedes GL 48C.

SECTOR BRIEF · VE-MACRO

Venezuela macro August 2026: the slide moderates and the accounts remain unaudited

The official rate rose 19.84% in July, but in August the slide eases to 5.09%. The central bank reported 7.14% growth in the second quarter and the Fund projects 4% for the year: nothing available today arbitrates between the two figures.