Multidimensional assessment: political, regulatory, operational, fiscal, sanctions, legal, social and exchange rate
Multidimensional assessment: political, regulatory, operational, fiscal, sanctions, legal, social and FX.
BCV: 451 Bs/USD · Inflation: 618% · Total Debt: $150-170B (180-200% GDP) · No formal restructuring · No access to international capital markets · Oil revenues under U.S. Treasury custody · Last IMF Article IV consultation: September 2004.
01 · OFAC licenses without expiration are more powerful than they appear — and carry a hidden price. None of the 7+1 general licenses have expiration dates. But the real mechanism is more subtle: Washington didn't lift sanctions — it converted them into a permanent oversight system where the U.S. controls the revenue tap. The licenses are permanent but the control is total. The risk isn't that they'll revoke them — it's that they'll use them as an indefinite pressure mechanism.
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FURTHER READING
04The missing regulation: Venezuela completes the framework of its oil opening, 20 days before the deadline
Venezuela reworks the rules of its oil and its exchange rate to attract capital, while the United States' footprint inside the country turns physical: from the crude income under Treasury custody to the Marines in Maiquetía's control tower.
What OFAC’s New License Does —and Doesn’t— Allow for Aiding Venezuela After the Quake
After the earthquake, OFAC issued General License 60, which temporarily lifts the sanctions prohibitions for relief through October 23, 2026, and the U.S. pledged US$150M through the UN and aid partners. A descriptive map of the perimeter: which transactions are authorized (including third-country transfers), what the license leaves out (no property unblocked, no ordinary remittances or commerce), and through which vehicles the money flows. Information, not advice.
GL 60 — Earthquake Relief Efforts (through October 23, 2026)
Authorizes, through 12:01 a.m. eastern time on October 23, 2026, transactions ordinarily incident and necessary to earthquake-relief efforts following the June 24, 2026 earthquake in Venezuela that would otherwise be prohibited by the Venezuela Sanctions Regulations (31 CFR part 591), including those involving the Government of Venezuela and SDNs sanctioned under the executive orders incorporated into the VSR. Note 1 covers the processing and transfer of funds on behalf of third-country persons in support of relief and lets U.S. financial institutions and money transmitters rely on the originator to establish compliance. Does not unblock blocked property and does not cover ordinary activity (routine remittances, general commerce).
Venezuela country risk May 2026: 90+90 transition toward July elections, GL cascade and restructuring underway
VE-RISK brief May 2026. Constitutional 90+90 clock with elections mandated for July; OFAC General License cascade (incl. GL 58 restructuring advisory); Citgo $5.9B sale contingent on Treasury (GL 5W expires Jun 19); debt restructuring launched (May 13, Centerview); IMF/World Bank reconnected. Easing via revocable licenses without congressional backing: reversibility as the key risk.
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