Enter oil now?
7 permanent OFAC licenses. Reformed law with arbitration. Production above 1M bpd. Risk: PDVSA debt and logistical bottlenecks.
Seven OFAC general licenses in 8 weeks, Brent above $100 due to the Hormuz crisis, and major international operators competing for position. This document assesses whether the timing justifies investment and under what conditions.
Venezuela today offers the most favorable combination in a decade for investment in the oil sector: clear legal framework (7 OFAC licenses with no expiration date), Brent above $100 maximizing return per barrel, production at 1.021K bpd with capacity to double, and tier-1 operators (Chevron, Repsol, Shell) already positioning themselves. The primary friction is not regulatory but physical: deteriorated infrastructure and revenue custody by the U.S. Treasury.
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