VENEECONOMIST
VENE · ECONOMISTINTELLIGENCE UNIT · SECTOR BRIEF
VE-MACRO · March 2026 · SECTOR BRIEF

The bi-monetary economy grows double digits while the bolivar loses a quarter of its value

The macroeconomic outlook evaluated for the investor. GDP, inflation, exchange rate, budget and monetary policy.

UNDER OBSERVATION · Favorable perspectiveMarch 24, 2026

Official BCV: 451 Bs/USD · complementary: ~560-650 Bs · Spread: 25-30% · INPC inflation Feb: 14.6% monthly (618% annualized) · Reserves: $14.125M · 80% of foreign exchange transactions via crypto platforms. Oil revenues are channeled to accounts supervised by the U.S. Treasury through a trust in Qatar.

Oil revenues ($863M January 2026) → U.S. Treasury custody (Foreign Gov. Deposit Funds) → BCV / Budget (Conditional release)

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Classification
Sector Brief · VE-MACRO
March 2026 · Monthly edition
Sector Verdict
UNDER OBSERVATION · Favorable perspective
Next review: April 2026
Editorial product
Sector Brief — Recurring structural knowledge. Distinct from Analysis (ad-hoc per event) and VE Score (quantitative rating).

FURTHER READING

04
ANÁLISIS · FINANZAS PÚBLICAS · RECAUDACIÓN TRIBUTARIA

SENIAT: Venezuela collects 37.6% more in dollars and 25.8% more in real terms

SENIAT reported $1.198 billion in September 2026, converted at the central bank's official rate, which rose less than inflation. Deflated by the consumer price index, the increase is 25.8%. March was the year's peak, April and July were not published, and it is not on record whether the totals include oil taxes that OFAC sends to the Treasury fund.

VE PULSE · 05-OCT-2026

The State Department swears in the Maduro case that only Delcy Rodríguez can act for Venezuela

March's recognition rested on a statement and a speech by Trump. Since Friday the 2nd it rests on a sworn declaration, which prosecutors in New York are using to deny Maduro head-of-state immunity.

SECTOR BRIEF · VE-MACRO

Venezuela macro August 2026: the slide moderates and the accounts remain unaudited

The official rate rose 19.84% in July, but in August the slide eases to 5.09%. The central bank reported 7.14% growth in the second quarter and the Fund projects 4% for the year: nothing available today arbitrates between the two figures.

OFAC · GL 48D

GL 48D — Supply of Goods and Services to Venezuela

Authorizes the supply from the U.S. or by a U.S. person of goods, technology, software or services for oil, gas and petrochemical exploration, development and production —including maintenance and repair of equipment—, and for electricity generation, transmission, storage and distribution in Venezuela. As of September 28, 2026, the petrochemical annex lists methanol. The formation of new joint ventures remains outside the license. Supersedes GL 48C.

VENE · ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit · Informational analysis. Does not constitute investment advice.
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