Multidimensional assessment: political, regulatory, operational, fiscal, sanctions, legal, social and exchange rate
Multidimensional assessment: political, regulatory, operational, fiscal, sanctions, legal, social and FX.
BCV: 451 Bs/USD · Inflation: 618% · Total Debt: $150-170B (180-200% GDP) · No formal restructuring · No access to international capital markets · Oil revenues under U.S. Treasury custody · Last IMF Article IV consultation: September 2004.
01 · OFAC licenses without expiration are more powerful than they appear — and carry a hidden price. None of the 7+1 general licenses have expiration dates. But the real mechanism is more subtle: Washington didn't lift sanctions — it converted them into a permanent oversight system where the U.S. controls the revenue tap. The licenses are permanent but the control is total. The risk isn't that they'll revoke them — it's that they'll use them as an indefinite pressure mechanism.
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FURTHER READING
04Pacific Coast Energy promises to double crude output at two PDVSA blocks claimed by former partners
On July 30 the company said it was finalizing the contracts; on October 7 it confirmed it runs both blocks with full operational control. Its release mentions no OFAC license and none of the partners claiming the fields.
Dragon field: Venezuela's gas for Shell and Trinidad waits on three keys
Venezuela licensed Dragon to Shell and NGC in 2023 with a 20% royalty and a floor of 45% of gross revenue. Under OFAC's General License 50C, those payments would go to the Treasury fund whose disbursement the State Department decides, and Trinidad and Tobago admits it has no fiscal framework for imported gas. Three scenarios and their signals.
GL 48D — Supply of Goods and Services to Venezuela
Authorizes the supply from the U.S. or by a U.S. person of goods, technology, software or services for oil, gas and petrochemical exploration, development and production —including maintenance and repair of equipment—, and for electricity generation, transmission, storage and distribution in Venezuela. As of September 28, 2026, the petrochemical annex lists methanol. The formation of new joint ventures remains outside the license. Supersedes GL 48C.
Venezuela country risk August 2026: the file runs on two clocks and only one tells verifiable time
The Venezuelan file operates on two clocks: an external one producing verifiable acts at a reliable cadence, and an internal one whose statements have no associated indicator. Reconstruction is the best available proxy for state execution capacity.
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