SEZs, manufacturing and foreign trade: the non-oil economy under the microscope

Non-oil GDP +13.9% estimated 2026 Ecoanalítica Non-oil exports +87.6% Jan-Apr 2025 vs 2024 Foreign trade records Active SEZs 7 since 2023 SEZ Superintendency Telecommunications 13.3% of GDP · +18.7% est. BCV / Deloitte-Econosignal Business registrations +66.2% RUPDAE 2024-25 Accelerated formalization National products 90% in supermarkets ANSA Context BCV: 451 Bs/USD · Parallel: ~560-650 Bs · Inflation: 618% annually · Labor cost: $150-200/month per operator (lowest in the Western Hemisphere) · 69.5% of the population earns less than $300/month — the domestic market cannot absorb production at international prices. The opportunity lies in exports. SEZ value chain — From production to export Local raw materials (Agriculture · fisheries · manufacturing) → Processing in SEZ (100% ISLR reimbursement · 6 years) → Port of departure (50% reduction in port costs) Target markets: Caribbean · Central America (import nearly everything) · Colombia (50M consumers · border) · Europe · Asia (Coffee, cocoa, fish, rum) 7 active SEZs: Paraguaná (energy) · Puerto Cabello-Morón (industry) · La Guaira (logistics/export) · Margarita (tourism/fisheries) · La Tortuga (special) · Agricultural SEZ (5 states) · Border SEZ (Colombia) Key players — March 2026 Player Position Key Move Pacific Seafood Proven model Exports fish to China and South Korea from Cumaná. Fisheries sector +23% Jan-Feb. Ron Diplomático / Santa Teresa Global brand 2M cases/year to 100+ countries. Demonstrates that the Venezuela brand works in premium segments. CONATEL Telecom regulator National Telecommunications Plan 2025-2031 under execution. Fiber optics, 4G, 5G transition. Movistar / Digitel Private operators Aging infrastructure but captive base. Telecom = 13.3% of GDP, more than manufacturing. Caribbean Café Success case Operates from La Guaira SEZ. Venezuelan coffee in Italy and U.S. specialty markets. What you're not seeing 01 · Telecommunications is the sector no one is pricing as an investment opportunity. 13.3% of GDP. More than manufacturing (9.2%), more than commerce (4.6%), more than construction (3.2%). Estimated growth +18.7% for 2026. And yet, there is not a single Tier III data center in the entire country, the fiber optic network is decades behind. Whoever enters telecom infrastructure now captures long-term concession returns without competition. 02 · The Caribbean as a captive market for Venezuelan manufacturing — no one is assembling this. The Eastern Caribbean islands import virtually everything they consume. La Guaira is hours away by sea. Venezuelan labor costs ($150-200/month) are a fraction of the Dominican Republic or Trinidad. The first mover who assembles an export cluster from La Guaira to the Eastern Caribbean captures a niche without real competition. 03 · Business registrations +66% are the formalization signal that anticipates fiscal growth. The 66.2% jump in business registrations is not just bureaucracy — it is the earliest signal that the informal economy is becoming formal. This expands the tax base, reduces operational risk, and creates a supplier ecosystem that international companies need to establish themselves. Opportunity and risk Opportunity Risk SEZ: 100% ISLR reimbursement for 6 years + 50% reduction in port costs. Lowest labor cost in the hemisphere. Non-oil exports +87.6%. Telecom 13.3% of GDP with infrastructure to be renewed. Colombia border reactivated. Fisheries +23%. Coffee and cocoa with designation of origin. Data centers: virgin market. 69.5% earn <$300/month — compressed domestic market. Intermittent electricity: main productive constraint. SEZ incentives on paper vs. actual execution. La Guaira port congested. Cold chain nonexistent. Inflation erodes cost advantage. Exclusion of China as partner. Window — 2026–2027 SEZs are operational but with inventory of installed companies still low. The first mover captures port locations and establishes precedents for incentive execution. Suitable profile: export agribusiness, light manufacturing for the Caribbean, fish processing, telecom infrastructure provider. Requirement: own power generation and 100% dollar operations.

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