WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • SANCIONES

    Washington authorizes supplying equipment, software and services to install, repair and operate telecommunications in Venezuela, and in the same text bars setting up the joint venture that would invest in the sector.

    Licencias generales 61 y 62 · nombradas Conatel, el regulador de telecomunicaciones, más CANTV y Movilnet · contrato bajo ley estadounidense y disputas en EE. UU., Reino Unido, Francia o Singapur · reporte al Departamento de Estado a los 10 días y cada 90

    affects the U.S. maker and integrator of network gear, the submarine-cable operator and the cloud vendor that wants to invoice in Venezuela

  • ENERGIA

    The export ceiling turns out to be the dock, not the permit: tankers wait as long as a month to load at the terminals that move the country's crude.

    Hasta 30 días de espera · cerca del 70% de la exportación sale por José · 2 de los 7 muelles de Guaraguao, en Puerto La Cruz, en servicio a mediados de agosto · sobrestadía que PDVSA acordó pagar en crudo

    affects the refiner holding a fixed-date cargo, the shipowner collecting demurrage and anyone pricing the discount on the Venezuelan barrel

  • FINANZAS

    The Central Bank, the banking supervisor and the private lenders sit down with the U.S. State Department to work through correspondent banking and anti-money-laundering standards.

    Programa de corresponsalía bancaria internacional · prevención de lavado y financiamiento del terrorismo · Banco Central, Sudeban y banca comercial pública y privada · licencia general 57 vigente desde el 14 de abril

    affects anyone who needs to move a dollar payment into or out of a Venezuelan bank without routing it through third parties

01MARKET PULSE · APERTURAKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$86.93
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
791.32
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$73-79
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$13.36B
PRODUCCIÓN · JUL
1.200M
bpd
INFLACIÓN · JUL
19.9%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

The U.S. vendor of network gear can invoice CANTV starting Friday; the fund that wants to buy into that business cannot. General License 61 authorizes installing, repairing and operating, and in the same text bars setting up the joint venture that would channel the investment. License 62 allows signing the contract and makes performance conditional on a separate permit. The practical result is that the sector opens first as a place to sell and only later, if that authorization arrives, as a place to put money. Two conditions travel with the permit: a contract with the Venezuelan state is construed under U.S. law and litigated in four venues outside the country, and every transaction is reported to the State Department within ten days and every ninety thereafter. Whoever walks in, walks in counted.

02AGENDA VE4 eventos · Events & catalysts
Events & catalysts24-ago — 31-ago
LUN24-ago
The Central Bank sets the official rate for the day at Bs 784.66 per dollar, 1.6% above the previous Monday.

That is the rate at which the week's imported inventory is replaced and the tax bill is settled, so it sets the floor for repricing before anything else moves.

MEDIO
MIÉ26-ago
The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its weekly petroleum inventory report.

Brent closed Friday at US$93.87 and the Merey band is set off that close, so this report moves the reference price against which the Venezuelan barrel is placed this week.

MEDIO
VIE28-ago
The Central Bank publishes the weekly cut of international reserves.

It is the first reading after a week in which the official rate rose 1.6%, and the closest available gauge of how much oil revenue is landing in the reserve balance.

MEDIO
LUN31-ago
August closes: the month against which PDVSA set its output target in Houston.

The figure is checked against the loading record and the direct communication to OPEC, not against the announcement: it is the first month-end cut that separates what was produced from what actually shipped.

ALTO
03THE FIGUREKey number in context
One in ten buildings inspected in Caracas came back with a red tag
11.185building inspections in metropolitan Caracas · 75% green tag, 13% yellow, 10% red

The Venezuelan Association of Engineers closed the first phase of its damage survey after the June 24 earthquakes with 11,185 buildings inspected in metropolitan Caracas through August 19: three quarters green, 13% yellow and 10% red. Most of the damage is in masonry rather than in structure.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

A red tag is not a demolition order: it is a building that cannot be occupied or sold until someone certifies it. That turns the survey into a queue of work with a name and an address, and sets the order in which money moves: structural assessment first, then masonry repair, and only after the certificate can the mortgage, the policy or the pre-sale be written. The 10% in red holds the highest-value work and the longest capital lock-up. The 13% in yellow decides the size of the market, because it comes back with far less spending than it looks.

IMPLICACIÓN POSITIVA

IMPLICACIÓN NEGATIVA

04RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Riesgo · Sanciones y licenciasEN CURSOPOSITIVOOFAC · licencias generales 61 y 62

Washington authorized on August 21 the supply of goods, technology, software and services to install, repair and operate telecommunications in Venezuela, naming Conatel, CANTV and Movilnet.

EVENTO

The U.S. Treasury's sanctions office issued two general licenses for the sector on August 21. License 61 authorizes supplying, from the United States or by a U.S. person, the goods, technology, software and services needed to install, maintain, repair, upgrade and operate telecommunications in Venezuela, including dealings with the government, with Conatel and with the state telephone company CANTV. The cover reaches broadband equipment, fiber pairs, satellite bandwidth, IP transit, submarine cables, cloud, billing and servers. License 62 authorizes negotiating and signing contingent contracts for new investment.

OFACLicencias generales 61 y 62 · FAQ 1266 · reporte al Departamento de Estado a los 10 días y cada 90 · excluidas contrapartes de Rusia, Irán, Corea del Norte, Cuba y China
VE Análisis

The pair of licenses splits the business in two. License 61 pays out immediately for whoever sells and operates, and it bars forming new joint ventures or entities in Venezuela to develop or invest in the sector; license 62 lets that same investor negotiate and sign, and makes performance expressly contingent on a separate authorization. On top of that, contracts with the Venezuelan state must be construed under the law of a U.S. jurisdiction and disputes heard in the United States, the United Kingdom, France or Singapore.

QUIÉN GANA

The U.S. equipment maker, the network integrator and the submarine-cable operator: they bill against a permit already in force, without waiting for a specific license.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Whoever wanted in as an equity partner: they hold a signable contract they cannot perform. And any supplier whose partners or financing sit in the five excluded countries.

INDICADORwhether the sanctions office issues the first specific authorization turning a contingent telecommunications contract into an enforceable one · la licencia rige desde el 21 de agosto de 2026; el primer reporte al Departamento de Estado vence 10 días después de la primera transacción y se repite cada 90 días

Energía · Logística de exportaciónEN CURSONEGATIVOReuters · exclusiva sobre los puertos

Tankers wait as long as 30 days to load in Venezuela. At Guaraguao, the Puerto La Cruz terminal, only two of its seven docks were fully in service by mid-August.

EVENTO

Shipping reports and anchorage data compiled through mid-August put the wait to load Venezuelan crude at up to 30 days, against under a week two decades ago. Tankers pile up at the anchorage off Jose, the eastern terminal handling close to 70% of exports. At Guaraguao, the Puerto La Cruz terminal, only two of seven docks were fully in service, and one berth had been occupied by a single vessel for two years. The oil ministry and PDVSA did not reply to requests for comment; state company vice president Jovanny Martinez acknowledged in Houston that there are deficiencies and that reliability must improve.

ReutersHasta 30 días de espera · ~70% de la exportación sale por José · 2 de 7 muelles en servicio en Guaraguao, Puerto La Cruz · tope de 1,25 millones de barriles diarios
VE Análisis

The wait has a price and a currency. PDVSA is charged thousands of dollars a day in demurrage — the surcharge a tanker collects for every day beyond its loading window — and agreed to settle it in crude, so the cost of the broken dock is deducted from the barrel itself before it turns into cash. The ceiling holds as output rises: exports have not cleared 1.25 million barrels a day. And the US$100 billion U.S. energy plan is focused on lifting output: projects to repair terminals and refineries are not being prioritized.

QUIÉN GANA

The shipowner with a vessel on time charter, who collects the surcharge for every day of waiting, and the trading houses that already loaded their volume this year.

QUIÉN PIERDE

PDVSA, which pays that surcharge in barrels rather than dollars, and the refiner in the United States or India holding a fixed-date cargo it has to reprogram.

INDICADORwhether PDVSA opens to export the docks so far reserved for domestic shipping, as Chevron requested, and whether the monthly loading tally clears 1.25 million barrels a day · el registro de embarques de agosto se conoce en los primeros días de septiembre de 2026

Finanzas · Banca corresponsalEN CURSOPOSITIVOEmbajada de Estados Unidos · corresponsalía

Venezuelan public and private banks, the Central Bank and Sudeban, the banking supervisor, completed on August 21 a U.S.-backed program on correspondent banking and financial-crime prevention.

EVENTO

The U.S. Embassy in Caracas reported the close of a correspondent-banking program focused on preventing money laundering and terrorism financing, backed by the State Department. Around the table were the Central Bank, Sudeban, the financial intelligence unit, the office against organized crime, the banking association and the commercial lenders. It is the second visible link this year between the two financial systems, after the April general license that authorized financial services with the Central Bank and named state banks.

Embajada de Estados Unidos en CaracasPrograma de corresponsalía bancaria internacional · prevención de lavado y financiamiento del terrorismo · licencia general 57 vigente desde el 14 de abril de 2026
VE Análisis

Correspondent banking is the account a Venezuelan bank keeps at a U.S. bank to settle dollar payments; without it a client's transfer travels through third parties that add cost and days. A license does not reopen that account: general license 57 has authorized financial services with the Central Bank and named state banks since April 14. What reopens it is the correspondent bank's compliance review, passed with documented procedures and a supervisor that can vouch for them.

QUIÉN GANA

The exporter and the importer who today pay a spread to route dollars through a third jurisdiction, and the Venezuelan bank that recovers fee income it lost to intermediaries.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The payment intermediary living off that detour, and any lender that cannot show the procedures: the standard sorts institutions rather than lifting all of them at once.

INDICADORwhether a U.S. bank publicly restores a correspondent line with a Venezuelan lender, or the banking association reports a reopened account · en los meses siguientes a agosto de 2026; ningún organismo ha anunciado fecha

05

HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING

indicators we issued in earlier editions
  • Did not holdedition #112 · 2026-08-17

    The week-opening agenda put August 24 as the date Maiquetia would resume commercial flights with a ceiling of eight daily operations. Faults detected in the August 19 drill and unfinished work in the arrivals area pushed it back: the temporary terminals do not start operating today. The drills continue and no new date has been announced. Airlines keep flying out of Valencia and Maracaibo.

VE Pulse · Opening indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.