- RIESGO
In the Maduro case, the State Department declares under oath that it recognizes Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela's sole head of state.
Escrito de la fiscalía: 57 páginas · declaración jurada de un subsecretario de Estado · réplica de la defensa: 16-oct · audiencia oral: 17-nov
affects companies holding contracts signed by the Rodríguez government
- PRECIOS
Prices rise 8.4% in September, less than August's 8.9%, and the central bank credits a steadier exchange rate.
INPC sep: 8,4% · ago: 8,9% · acumulada 2026: 225,3% · dólar oficial en septiembre: +8,1%
affects importers, retailers and bolívar savers
- GAS
Eni and Repsol are reported to be weighing the sale of part of Perla, the field that covers a third of the domestic gas market; neither has confirmed it.
Eni 50% · Repsol 50% · 580 millones de pies cúbicos diarios a PDVSA Gas · sin porcentaje, precio ni comprador
affects funds and oil companies looking to enter Venezuelan gas, and PDVSA Gas
Friday's declaration outweighs the rest of this edition because it bears on who signs. The contracts of the opening, from NABEP to the joint ventures, rest on Delcy Rodríguez speaking for Venezuela, and the State Department now says so under oath before a federal court, not just in a statement. The same text gives the recognition a purpose: to facilitate a phased process toward an elected government. For anyone buying Venezuelan assets, the signature is thus tied to a transition that still has no election date. Lower inflation and the possible sale in Perla do not move that foundation. The next observables are the defense reply, on October 16, and the third round of the dialogue table, expected in mid-month.
↳ The mission investigates arbitrary detentions, torture and executions since 2014; whether it continues or closes enters the due diligence of funds with human-rights policies.
↳ Its OPEC production table carries the agency's estimate for Venezuelan crude, the first after a September with lower exports.
↳ It is October's first reading of how much Venezuelan crude enters the United States, the destination of almost six of every ten barrels exported in September.
↳ It is the first time the case returns to the courtroom after the prosecution's brief; any remark by the judge on recognition previews how he will read immunity.
↳ The business body announced representatives of the tax administration, the Labor Ministry and PDVSA: it is where the private sector will hear the year-end rules firsthand.
↳ The eleven-deputy commission will take the list of those selected to the plenary on Thursday the 15th; the candidates for justice come out of that 23-member committee.
Total September 2026 collection —domestic taxes, customs and the large financial transactions tax—: Bs 1,003,772 million, according to superintendent Román Maniglia.
That is 13.1% more than in August and 37.6% more than in September 2025, measured in dollars; in bolívares, the year-on-year rise exceeds 600%. Domestic taxes contributed $810.5 million and customs $365.8 million, close to a third of the total, so a large share of collection tracks the pace of imports. The dollar figure is the tax administration's own conversion. October's figure will show whether September's pace holds.
New York prosecutors answered Maduro's immunity motion on Friday the 2nd with a sworn State Department declaration: Delcy Rodríguez is the only recognized head of state.
The US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York filed on Friday the 2nd its 57-page opposition to the motions by Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores to dismiss the case on head-of-state immunity grounds. It attached a sworn declaration by Juan Pablo Segura, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs: the United States has not recognized Maduro since January 23, 2019, and recognizes Delcy Rodríguez as "the sole head of state, able to speak for and take action on behalf of Venezuela." Judge Alvin Hellerstein has not ruled.
Departamento de Estado — vía CourtListener ↗Escrito de la fiscalía: 57 páginas (ECF 338) · declarante: Juan Pablo Segura, subsecretario para el Hemisferio Occidental · réplica de la defensa: 16-oct · audiencia oral: 17-novRecognizing a foreign government is a power of the US Executive, and prosecutors argue that courts owe it absolute deference: what Washington says about who is head of state settles immunity. The declaration adds a fact from the Venezuelan government itself: on May 14 its embassy asked Washington to certify Rodríguez's immunity in a civil suit in Florida, the Kenemore case, and did not ask for Maduro, against whom that court entered a default judgment on July 15.
Companies with contracts signed by the Rodríguez government, from Chevron to NABEP: Washington declares under oath that she can act on behalf of Venezuela.
The Maduro and Flores defense, which claims an immunity Venezuela has not asserted for them either in this case or in the Florida one, where it did seek it for Rodríguez.
INDICADORThe defense reply to the prosecution's brief and the oral argument on immunity before Judge Hellerstein. · 16 de octubre de 2026 (réplica) y 17 de noviembre, 10:30 ET (audiencia oral).
The central bank reported on Saturday the 3rd that prices rose 8.4% in September, against 8.9% in August. It credits a steadier exchange rate and the normalization of external income.
The Central Bank of Venezuela reported on Saturday the 3rd that the national consumer price index rose 8.4% in September, after 8.9% in August. So far in 2026 it is up 225.3%. Education services rose 11.1% and housing services 4.6%. The bank credits the smaller increase to coordination with the Executive, to "the normalization of external income flows" and to easing exchange-rate pressure, which brought the exchange rate toward stabilization.
Banco Central de Venezuela ↗INPC sep: 8,4% (ago: 8,9%) · acumulada ene-sep: 225,3% · dólar oficial: Bs 794,99 el 31-ago, 859,06 el 30-sep (+8,1%) · reservas 30-sep: US$12.801 M (−491 M en el mes) · ahorro mínimo: 42% anualIn September the official dollar rose 8.1%, slightly less than prices, and the bank presents that exchange-rate calm as the cause of the slowdown. In the same month international reserves fell by $491 million, to $12.801 billion on September 30. The bank's note does not mention reserves or say how much it sold in the foreign-exchange market.
Importers and retailers selling in bolívares: the dollar they restock with rose slightly less than the price index in September.
Bolívar savers: the minimum savings rate, 42% a year since September 15, works out to 3.5% a month against prices that rose 8.4%.
INDICADORThe October price index change published by the central bank. · Primeros días de noviembre de 2026.
Eni and Repsol, equal owners of the Perla gas field, are reported to be weighing the sale of part of their stakes to fund its development. Neither Eni nor Repsol has confirmed it.
Eni and Repsol, each holding 50% of Cardón IV, the license that operates the Perla field in the Gulf of Venezuela, are weighing the sale of part of their stakes to outside investors to fund the field's development, according to a report on Saturday the 3rd based on unidentified people. Both companies declined to comment, and there is no percentage, price or buyer. On September 30, at the Caracas oil summit, Repsol said Cardón IV delivers 580 million cubic feet a day to PDVSA Gas, a third of the domestic market.
Bloomberg ↗Cardón IV: Eni 50% · Repsol 50% · 580 MMpcd a PDVSA Gas, un tercio del mercado interno · venta: sin porcentaje, precio ni comprador · resultados 3T: Eni 23-oct, Repsol 29-octAt the Caracas oil summit on September 30, Repsol's Francisco Martínez called Cardón IV "a high-investment, high-cost development" compared with gas associated with oil, and said the domestic market "should not depend on Cardón IV's growth"; the field delivers 580 million cubic feet a day today. A new partner would finance growth that, according to one of the owners, the domestic market should not count on. On Friday the 2nd the government hosted Baker Hughes to assess onshore gas infrastructure.
Funds and oil companies looking to enter Venezuelan gas: it would be a stake in a field that already produces.
PDVSA Gas: according to Repsol, additional supply for the domestic market will have to come from gas associated with oil, not from Perla.
INDICADORConfirmation of the sale by Eni or Repsol, with a percentage and a buyer. · Resultados del tercer trimestre: Eni el 23 de octubre y Repsol el 29 de octubre de 2026.
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn October 2 we set a watch on whether Rubio and Hegseth would hand over, before October 14, the text of the NABEP deal requested by Democrats on five House committees.
That same Friday the State Department gave the Foreign Affairs Committee one document on the deal signed with Alejandro Betancourt to take a stake in NABEP. Democrats called it insufficient and repeated their request for the agreement between Delcy Rodríguez and Betancourt, and for KPMG's audits of the US Treasury funds where payments for Venezuelan oil are deposited.