The week had two halves that explain each other. Through Wednesday, Washington concentrated control: it kept the naval cordon on sanctioned crude, sent a delegation to press for more changes to the oil rulebook, and merged its authorizations into a single body of seven licenses with an explicit veto on Chinese capital. From Thursday the market answered: the gas license to Shell, the draft price of the debt advisory and the memorandum with the world's largest oilfield-services company were signed in less than a day on that scaffolding, while foreign investors made technical visits to the newly militarized gold mines. The crossing says something no single piece says alone: the opening has buyers waiting at the door; it is not supply in search of demand. The week's uncomfortable balance lies in the supports: the barrel slipped about 6%, defending the bolívar consumed US$335 million of reserves in seven days, and the court that would give certainty to what was signed postponed its renewal once again.
↳ The new permit regime is already producing contracts in gas, debt and agriculture; what it does not yet produce is what would sustain them: a stable barrel, reserves that hold, and a standing judicial arbiter.
Delcy Rodríguez and Shell signed on June 11 the Phase I license for the Loran field —non-associated gas shared with Trinidad and Tobago— within a package of five instruments aimed at domestic supply and exports.
Acting president Delcy Rodríguez and multinational Shell signed five legal instruments on June 11, led by the Phase I Development and Exploitation license for the Loran field: non-associated natural gas in seven reservoirs, six of them shared with Trinidad and Tobago on the eastern maritime border, whose Trinidadian side —the Manatee project— Shell is already developing. The package includes service and purchase orders for northern Monagas, with light crude as diluent for the Merey 16 blend and feedstock for the Puerto La Cruz refinery, plus the recovery of flared gas through compression systems. The gas has a declared dual destination: the domestic power, industrial, petrochemical and residential market, and exports.
Gobierno de Venezuela · PDVSA · Shell ↗Fase I · campo Loran | gas no asociado · 7 yacimientos, 6 compartidos con Trinidad y Tobago | 5 instrumentos · 11-jun | destino: mercado interno + exportación | dieta a Refinería Puerto La Cruz · gas de quemaFor the portfolio, the signing changes the composition of the Venezuela bet: gas is the route least dependent on crude prices and the one feeding power, petrochemicals and industry, the operating bottleneck of any business in the country. Three absences call for caution: no investment amount, no works schedule and no return scheme for Shell were announced; and although the license is Venezuelan, the regulatory umbrella remains the U.S. framework, revocable with a single signature. That the Trinidadian side of the same reservoir is already under development helps: neighboring infrastructure exists and shortens the export route. Indicator: the Phase I amount and schedule, and the first contracted field work.
A draft contract between the Republic and Centerview, disclosed June 11, sets a success fee of 0.1% of total debt with no cap: between US$150 and 200 million for the sole financial adviser.
A draft of the financial advisory contract between the Republic and Centerview Partners, disclosed on June 11, contemplates a success fee of 0.1% of the total restructured debt, with no monetary cap: with liabilities estimated between US$150 billion and US$200 billion, it would amount to between US$150 and 200 million, above payouts recorded in previous sovereign restructurings. The New York investment bank's appointment as sole financial adviser was formalized in mid-May without a competitive process, with French banker Matthieu Pigasse —adviser on the 2012 Greek restructuring— leading the mandate.
Centerview · República de Venezuela · Bloomberg ↗Honorario de éxito 0,1% de la deuda total · sin tope | deuda estimada US$150.000–200.000M → US$150–200M | asesor único: Centerview · Matthieu Pigasse | designado en mayo sin concurso | borrador conocido 11-junThat the debt table has a price is the best evidence it is serious: nobody discusses success fees on a process not expected to be completed. The discomfort lies in how it was set: a mandate awarded without a tender, with uncapped compensation above what previous sovereign deals paid, is itself a governance data point, and the creditors who will be asked to accept haircuts will use it as an argument. For the bondholder, the progress of the process outweighs its form; for those weighing an entry, the form is the warning. Indicator: whether the final contract keeps the uncapped 0.1% and the creditor committee's first formal reaction.
The National Assembly unanimously enacted the Cocoa Law on June 11: special financing for inputs, paperwork through a digital single agricultural window, and protection for ancestral export-grade criollo varieties.
Parliament unanimously enacted on June 11 the Law for the Promotion and Development of Cocoa, which organizes the crop's full cycle: production, industrial processing, commercialization and exports. The text creates special financing lines for input purchases, concentrates paperwork in a digital Single Agricultural Window with traceability, provides for technical assistance, productive infrastructure and farm roads, and grants priority protection to ancestral criollo cocoa in its Porcelana, Guasare and Pentágona varieties.
Asamblea Nacional ↗Ley del Cacao · unanimidad · 11-jun | financiamiento especial para insumos | Ventanilla Única Agrícola digital con trazabilidad | protección del criollo: Porcelana, Guasare, Pentágona | alcance: de la producción a la exportaciónThe text's interest lies in the channel, not the subsidy: formal credit for inputs, digital traceability and export promotion are exactly what the fine-cocoa producer —one of the few Venezuelan products with hard-currency external demand and a quality premium— lacked through ordinary means. The caution is also about the channel: the law announces financing but does not say with which funds or which banks will operate it, and without implementing regulations the single window is just another article. For the agricultural entrepreneur it is the operational news of the week; for the investor, a piece of the non-oil thread that grew 32% in the first quarter. Indicator: the law's implementing regulations and the first credit program that actually disburses.
OPEC's monthly report, published June 11, put Venezuela's May output at 1,179,000 barrels per day according to the government's direct communication to the cartel and 1,072,000 according to secondary sources. Both measurements rose from the prior month, while the month's shipments —1.25 million bpd— remained above what was produced.
The number half-answers the question left by the export rebound: May's shipments did not come only from tanks, because output rose in both measurements; but even the higher figure sits some 70,000 bpd below what was shipped, and that gap is inventory with an expiration date. What is new is who buys: Reliance is moving to reactivate its term contract for up to 400,000 bpd and traders Trafigura and Vitol are already placing Merey blend in South Korea and Malaysia, with the conflict around Iran reordering flows toward Asia. Indicator: whether July's report closes the gap between output and shipments, and the date of the first cargo under the Indian contract.
If output keeps rising toward the shipment level with Asia as backstop demand, the rebound shifts from tank drawdown to real capacity and external cash flow gains a base.
If the gap between production and shipments persists, the record dispatch level has an expiration date and revenue would depend even more on a price that has already pulled back.
The coming week splits its tests among courts, debt and gas. On Wednesday the 17th the extended window to apply to the high court expires and the file audit begins, the first verifiable filter of the judicial reform. On Friday the 19th the OFAC license on the PDVSA 2020 bond takes effect, and with it the legal window over the CITGO collateral. On debt, what matters is whether the advisory mandate moves from draft to signed contract, and on what terms. On gas, whether Loran's Phase I publishes a schedule and an investment figure. And on the currency front, the June 16 reserves print will show how fast June's intervention is consuming the external cushion, with a barrel that no longer helps. The common yardstick for every test: papers turning —or not— into dates and figures.
- ▸El mandato de la deuda se cae o se reabre: si en las próximas semanas no hay contrato definitivo con el asesor financiero —o la remuneración se renegocia desde cero—, el proceso pierde su pieza organizadora y el calendario de la reestructuración se corre.
- ▸Loran queda en papel: sin calendario de obras ni monto comprometido que se publiquen pronto, la firma gasífera de la semana se vuelve gesto diplomático y debilita la lectura de que la apertura tiene demanda real.
- ▸El barril se asienta por debajo de US$85: una tregua consolidada en Medio Oriente comprimiría el ingreso externo justo cuando la defensa cambiaria ya drena el saldo del BCV, y el financiamiento de la recuperación quedaría más estrecho.
- ▸La renovación judicial se vacía: una tercera prórroga del plazo, o una auditoría de expedientes sin criterios públicos, confirmaría que el tribunal nace como instrumento de control y los contratos de la apertura seguirían sin árbitro creíble.
- ▸El colateral de CITGO vuelve a foro contencioso: con la GL 5W vigente desde el 19-jun, una acción de tenedores sobre el bono PDVSA 2020 reabriría el frente legal sobre el activo externo más sensible de la República.
- →17-jun, 4:00 pm — Vencimiento del plazo prorrogado de postulaciones a magistrados del TSJ y arranque de la auditoría de expedientes
- →19-jun — Entrada en vigencia de la licencia OFAC GL 5W sobre el bono PDVSA 2020 8,5%
- →16-jun — Corte semanal de reservas internacionales del BCV
- →horizonte abierto — ▸ Hilo abierto · Firma del contrato definitivo de asesoría financiera de la deuda
- →horizonte abierto — ▸ Hilo abierto · Calendario y monto de inversión de la Fase I del campo Loran