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VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM · July 2026 · SECTOR BRIEF

Venezuela Upstream July 2026: LOH Regulation drops PDVSA (Gaceta 7,052), Repsol signs Horcón MoU, OFAC amends GL 46C-54A, Brent normalizes to $81

The first comprehensive Hydrocarbons Law regulation since 1943 opens upstream to privates without a mandatory joint venture; the VE Score eases from 94 to 84 on Brent's correction (May $104 → July $81), not regulatory deterioration.

FAVORABLE · Favorable perspectiveJuly 16, 2026

Venezuela's upstream just received the most consequential change to its legal framework in more than eight decades. The Organic Hydrocarbons Law Regulation —Decree No. 5,381, Official Gazette Extraordinary 7,052, in force since its publication on July 7, under the Ministry of Hydrocarbons (Paula Henao)— is the first comprehensive regulation of the law since 1943, consolidating into a single text a body of rules previously scattered across more than a thousand resolutions. Its most consequential feature for the investor sits in the technical detail, not the headline: the text never names PDVSA —it always uses the formula "company wholly owned by the Republic or its subsidiaries"— but the State does not stop being a mandatory counterparty. The Regulation's own definition of "Operating Companies" (Art. 2) requires every private party to be either a partner in a state-majority Joint Venture, or a signatory to one or more contracts with that state-owned company. What does change is that the Regulation formalizes that second path —a purely contractual "Business Model," without a joint equity company (Art. 14, referencing Art. 23 of the Law)— as an explicit alternative to the traditional joint venture: a private operator no longer needs to cede equity inside a shared entity to access acreage and run the chain, but it still does so under contract with the State, not independently of it.

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Classification
Sector Brief · VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM
July 2026 · Monthly edition
Sector Verdict
FAVORABLE · Favorable perspective
Next review: August 2026
Editorial product
Sector Brief — Recurring structural knowledge. Distinct from Analysis (ad-hoc per event) and VE Score (quantitative rating).

FURTHER READING

04
VE PULSE · 12-OCT-2026

The round of talks Washington announced for Wednesday the 14th puts the Supreme Court ahead of the electoral council

After two rounds in Caracas, Washington put the order of the negotiation in writing: first the 32 justices, by December; the overhaul of the electoral authority, in rounds that still have no date.

SECTOR BRIEF · VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM

Chevron Q1 revela 1–2% del CFO (cash flow operativo) en Venezuela; producción cruza 1.23M bpd y GL 5W señala coordinación con Citgo

Brief VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM mayo 2026. El upstream entra en fase de ejecución contractual: exportaciones cruzan 1.23M bpd en abril (máximo en 7 años, +14% intermensual), Chevron en su call Q1 (1 may) confirma Venezuela = 1–2% del CFO (cash flow operativo) con cuenta por cobrar de $1.5B en amortización a 2027 y sin compromiso de capex incremental antes de clarificación fiscal. GL 5W (4 may) extiende protección bono PDVSA 2020 hasta 19 jun — extensión más corta en dos años, señal de coordinación Treasury con proceso judicial Citgo en Delaware. Repsol Petroquiriquire, Eni Junín-5 y Maurel & Prom operativos bajo GL 50A.

ANÁLISIS · ENERGÍA · GAS Y MERCADO INTERNO

Gas in Venezuela: the country flares more than twice what Perla delivers

Perla, the Eni and Repsol field, covers a third of the domestic market with the country's most expensive gas and is paid by PDVSA in crude. PDVSA Gas says supply is guaranteed; Repsol says the country should not depend on Cardón IV. Meanwhile, the World Bank estimates Venezuela flared 13.5 billion cubic meters in 2025.

OFAC · GL 48D

GL 48D — Supply of Goods and Services to Venezuela

Authorizes the supply from the U.S. or by a U.S. person of goods, technology, software or services for oil, gas and petrochemical exploration, development and production —including maintenance and repair of equipment—, and for electricity generation, transmission, storage and distribution in Venezuela. As of September 28, 2026, the petrochemical annex lists methanol. The formation of new joint ventures remains outside the license. Supersedes GL 48C.

VENE · ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit · Informational analysis. Does not constitute investment advice.
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