- PETRÓLEO
NABEP's agreement with Washington pays no dividends until output passes one million barrels a day; Betancourt targets about 350,000 in 2027.
Producción declarada: ~223.000 bpe/d · meta 2027: ~350.000 b/d · dividendos: tras 1.015.000 b/d · EE. UU.: 35% y crudo a ~US$30
affects anyone projecting Venezuelan output, and rig and service suppliers
- INGRESO
The CTV union says the government proposed four $40 bonuses in 2027, not wage increases, and rejects the offer.
Bonos 2027, según la CTV: 4 × US$40 · ingreso integral: US$240 · salario mínimo: Bs 130 desde mar-2022
affects anyone earning the comprehensive minimum income, and anyone calculating severance on the wage
- SOCIOS DE PDVSA
India's ONGC seeks to run San Cristóbal alone and sell its crude within three to six months; PDVSA owes it more than $500 million in dividends.
ONGC Videsh: 40% · PDVSA: 60% · dividendos pendientes: >US$500 M · plazo: 3 a 6 meses
affects PDVSA minority partners waiting on dividends, and buyers of Venezuelan crude
Being paid in crude rather than dividends ties the business to the price, and this week the price gave way. The U.S.'s 35% of NABEP receives no dividends until the company passes 1,015,000 barrels a day; before then, what can pay off is buying 20% of the crude at about $30. ONGC wants to sell its own crude instead of waiting on dividends that PDVSA has in arrears. Brent closed Friday at $98.32, 13.3% lower than a week earlier, as the market bet on a U.S.-Iran deal that has not been signed. With Merey in a band of $84 to $90, the discount against that $30 has narrowed by about $15 a barrel. The first check is the EIA, on Tuesday the 10th; the next, a signing or a breakdown with Iran.
↳ The debate has been postponed three times and the text approved at second reading has not been published; once passed, it goes to the acting president to be signed into law.
↳ It is the U.S. agency's price reference after the week's drop; it determines what the $30 crude reserved for Washington under NABEP's agreement is worth.
↳ There were 145 as of October 30; evaluations and interviews run from November 16 to 27, and they produce one of the two appointments the election roadmap requires before a vote date.
↳ Besides Venezuelan output, it carries OPEC's 2027 demand forecast, which defines how much new crude the market can absorb.
↳ Marco Rubio said on Thursday the 5th that the new electoral council would be discussed this week; without it, the six-month clock to the election does not start. Caracas has not confirmed the date.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported on November 4 that imports from Venezuela totaled $5.101 billion in the third quarter, versus $272 million a year earlier.
Most of it is crude: the U.S. imported 701,000 barrels a day from Venezuela in July and 655,000 in August, according to the EIA. From January to September it bought $11.667 billion and sold $4.665 billion, a gap of $7.002 billion; for all of 2025 it had been $719 million. That balance does not measure what reaches Venezuela: the government's oil income is deposited in U.S. Treasury accounts and is released when the State Department authorizes it. The EIA publishes September volumes on November 30.
U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, which receive Venezuelan heavy crude a few days' sail away.
Alejandro Betancourt, chairman of NABEP, set a goal of topping 275,000 barrels a day before year-end and about 350,000 in 2027, in remarks published on Saturday the 7th; the agreement with Washington defers dividends.
In remarks published on Saturday the 7th, Alejandro Betancourt, chairman of NABEP, said the company produces about 223,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. He set a goal of topping 275,000 before year-end and reaching about 350,000 in 2027, when he aims to be the country's largest producer. He estimated the company will generate more than $5 billion in cash this year, nearly all of it to be reinvested. It runs 8 drilling rigs and 21 workover units between the country's east and west. "Venezuela gets paid first," he said.
NABEP — vía The Washington Post ↗Producción declarada: ~223.000 bpe/d · meta fin de 2026: >275.000 b/d · meta 2027: ~350.000 · equipos: 8 de perforación y 21 de rehabilitación · dividendos: tras 1.015.000 b/dThe 18-page agreement with Washington is not public. According to copies reviewed by the U.S. press, Venezuela first receives a royalty of 16% to 40% of output and there are no dividends until production passes 1,015,000 barrels a day, a goal Betancourt places in 2033. The U.S., which owns 35%, can buy 20% of the crude at about $30. A royalty paid first says nothing about who controls the money: the Venezuelan government's oil income is deposited in U.S. Treasury accounts.
Rig suppliers: NABEP says it pays for its equipment with the crude it produces and is aiming for 60 rigs within 36 months.
Anyone expecting NABEP dividends, starting with the U.S. government: there will be no payout before output passes the million-barrel mark.
INDICADOROctober output according to OPEC's secondary sources, and a monthly crude average published by NABEP. · Miércoles 11 de noviembre de 2026, informe mensual de la OPEP; la meta de 275.000 barriles diarios vence el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
José Elías Torres of the CTV union said Delcy Rodríguez proposed on October 19 four $40 bonuses in 2027, in January, April, July and October; the union rejects them and wants them made part of the wage.
According to José Elías Torres, secretary general of the CTV union, the acting president proposed at an October 19 meeting at Miraflores four $40 increases in 2027, in January, April, July and October, as bonuses rather than wages. "We reject the amounts they proposed," he said in remarks published on Sunday the 8th. For year-end pay, the CTV is asking for two comprehensive incomes of $240; according to the union, the government offered $150 in two parts. The government has not published any amounts.
CTV — vía Tal Cual ↗Propuesta 2027, según la CTV: 4 × US$40 (ene, abr, jul, oct) · ingreso integral: US$240 · salario mínimo: Bs 130 desde mar-2022 · aguinaldo: la CTV pide 2 × US$240The comprehensive minimum income has been $240 since May: a wage of Bs 130, frozen since March 2022, plus a $200 'economic war' bonus and a $40 food bonus, paid in bolívars at the central bank rate. Bonuses do not count toward severance, vacation or year-end pay, which are calculated on the wage; that is why the CTV wants them folded into the wage. On October 29, Delcy Rodríguez spoke of four tranches in 2027 with the previous quarter's growth as a floor, without amounts.
The state as employer: a raise paid as bonuses does not recalculate severance across each worker's full seniority.
Anyone earning the comprehensive minimum income: their severance and year-end pay are still calculated on a Bs 130 wage.
INDICADORAn official announcement of the labor talks' amounts and of how 2026 year-end pay will be paid. · Delcy Rodríguez prometió resultados para noviembre; la CTV pide la primera parte del aguinaldo el 15 de noviembre, y educación y salud convocan un paro de 12 horas el 16 de noviembre de 2026.
ONGC, a PDVSA partner, said on Friday the 6th that within three to six months it expects to run San Cristóbal alone, with the right to sell its crude, and recover more than $500 million in overdue dividends.
On the analyst call on Friday the 6th, ONGC executives said the Indian state oil company is negotiating a new arrangement for San Cristóbal, where its unit ONGC Videsh holds 40% and PDVSA 60%: "we will be the sole operator." In Carabobo 1, where Indian companies hold 18% combined, operations would be joint. The new arrangement would give it the right to lift and sell its share of the crude, and it expects to close it within three to six months. PDVSA owes it more than $500 million in dividends; settling them through the new agreements or a separate one is under study.
ONGC — vía PSU Watch ↗ONGC Videsh: 40% de San Cristóbal (PDVSA 60%) · empresas indias en Carabobo 1: 18% · dividendos pendientes: >US$500 M · plazo: 3 a 6 mesesToday ONGC has no right to lift crude: it is paid only what PDVSA distributes as dividends, and that payment is in arrears. With operatorship and the right to sell its share, it would be paid directly from the sale. San Cristóbal produced about 0.265 million tonnes of oil equivalent in ONGC's 2026 fiscal year, a tenth of its potential, according to the company. That is already how Chevron and Repsol get paid in their joint ventures.
ONGC and the Indian companies in Carabobo 1: they would be paid from the sale of their share of the crude, not from whatever PDVSA decides to distribute.
PDVSA, if the deal is signed: it would stop operating a field in which it holds 60% and stop deciding who buys its partner's share.
INDICADORThe signing of the new arrangement for San Cristóbal and Carabobo 1, and whether it includes payment of the overdue dividends. · ONGC da de tres a seis meses desde el 6 de noviembre de 2026, es decir, entre febrero y mayo de 2027.
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn November 5 we set a watch on the Official Gazette number of the export-simplification decree and on whether its text let the executive restrict exports again on supply grounds.
It was issued as Decree 5,460 in Extraordinary Gazette 7,091, dated November 4, and takes effect 15 days after publication. It repeals the fishing, coffee and cocoa resolutions and does not make the exemption conditional on domestic demand, as the 2021 decree did. The sector rules the ministries must issue within 90 days may not regulate imports or exports.