- REFINACIÓN
CITGO, PDVSA's U.S. refiner, earns $2.2 billion in the quarter and projects 2026 EBITDA of $7.2 to $7.5 billion.
Ganancia 3T: US$2.200 M · oferta de Amber: US$5.900 M · autorización del Tesoro: pendiente
affects creditors in the Delaware auction and Amber Energy, Elliott's affiliate
- MANUFACTURA
Private manufacturing grows 12.8% year on year and power becomes its top obstacle, according to Conindustria, the manufacturers' confederation.
Volumen 3T: +12,8% · horas sin luz: 231 de 520 · pequeña industria: +0,1%
affects medium-sized and large manufacturers, and anyone selling power generation
- DIVISAS
The KPMG report released by the State Department shows that since March 31 the BCV has allocated the custody account dollars bank by bank at a rate it sets.
Depósitos ene–sep: US$12.260 M · a tasa fija desde el 31-mar: US$9.322 M · pago a KPMG: US$18,2 M
affects banks that receive allocations and the companies that buy dollars from them
Value is arriving ahead of the rules that decide who keeps it. CITGO earned $2.2 billion in a quarter, but its sale, approved by a Delaware court in 2025, is still waiting on Treasury authorization, and every quarter of waiting leaves more cash inside the company. Private manufacturing grew 12.8% while paying for its own power, and the law that opens generation to private companies is not yet in the Gazette and has no regulations. In both cases, whoever is already inside collects the cycle, and whoever wants in depends on a signature that has not arrived. With oil dollars, the BCV sets the rule: according to KPMG's report, it decides how much each bank receives and at what rate. The test comes next week, with the close of supreme court applications and the still-pending enactment of the power law.
CITGO, PDVSA's U.S. refiner, reported on Thursday the 12th third-quarter net income of $2.2 billion; its sale to an Elliott affiliate still lacks Treasury authorization.
CITGO Petroleum, the Houston-based refiner PDVSA controls through PDV Holding, reported on Thursday the 12th third-quarter net income of $2.2 billion, up from $936 million in the second quarter. Quarterly EBITDA was $3.0 billion, and for 2026 the company projects $7.2-7.5 billion. A federal court in Delaware approved in November 2025 the sale of PDV Holding to Amber Energy, an Elliott affiliate, for $5.9 billion; as of November 12, U.S. Treasury authorization was still pending.
CITGO Petroleum ↗Ganancia neta 3T: US$2.200 M · EBITDA 2026 proyectado: US$7.200-7.500 M · oferta de Amber: US$5.900 M · caja a fin de año: US$6.700-7.000 MThe profit comes from refining margins, which the company says reflect a tight market and a geopolitical risk premium. The auction price was set in a different cycle: Amber's $5.9 billion equals 79-82% of the EBITDA CITGO projects for 2026 alone (our calculation), a comparison that does not net out the company's debt.
CITGO, which keeps the cycle's cash on its own balance sheet: it projects $6.7 to $7.0 billion at the end of 2026.
Creditors in the Delaware auction, including holders of the PDVSA 2020 bond, who are paid in cash only if the sale to Amber closes.
INDICADORTreasury authorization to close the sale to Amber Energy, and the cash CITGO reports at year-end. · Sin plazo público para el Tesoro; la caja de fin de año, en los resultados del cuarto trimestre de CITGO, a comienzos de 2027.
Conindustria, the manufacturers' confederation, released its third-quarter survey on Thursday the 12th: private manufacturing grew 12.8% year on year and power became its top obstacle.
Conindustria, the country's manufacturers' confederation, released its third-quarter Industrial Business Survey on Thursday the 12th: private manufacturing volume grew 12.8% from the same period of 2025 and is up 9.7% for January through September. Power failures displaced taxes as the top obstacle, cited by 71% of firms. Out of 520 working hours, factories reported an average of 231 without power and 67 unscheduled outages. Small manufacturers grew 0.1% in the quarter.
Conindustria ↗Volumen 3T: +12,8% interanual · horas sin luz: 231 de 520 · costo eléctrico extra: USD 34.230 al mes · pequeña industria: +0,1%Growth is concentrated at the top: medium-sized manufacturers grew 16.1% and large ones 13.6%. Small firms run at 34.9% of capacity. Power is now an in-house cost: the survey puts the average extra spending per factory at $34,230 a month, 43% of it on fuel for generators. The law the Assembly passed on Tuesday the 10th opens generation to private companies, but the tariff depends on regulations due within 180 days.
Medium-sized and large manufacturers: they grew 16.1% and 13.6% in the quarter, and large firms have 100 days of orders booked.
Small manufacturers: they grew 0.1% in the quarter, are down 3.4% for the year and have only 50 days of orders.
INDICADORPublication of the power law in the Official Gazette, and the hours without power measured by the fourth-quarter survey. · Gaceta hacia el 20 de noviembre de 2026 si el Ejecutivo recibió la ley el día 10 (art. 214 de la Constitución); encuesta del cuarto trimestre, a comienzos de 2027.
The custody account took in $12.26 billion from January to September and, since March 31, the BCV has allocated those dollars bank by bank at a rate it sets, according to KPMG's report released Thursday the 12th.
On Thursday the 12th the State Department released the report KPMG prepared on the account where the U.S. holds Venezuela's oil revenue, with depositors redacted. According to the document, $12.26 billion came in and $12.11 billion went out between January 3 and September 30; through March 30 the BCV sold dollars in 101 auctions, and since the 31st it has allocated them to each bank at a fixed exchange rate it sets. KPMG says its work does not constitute an audit; the account paid it $18.2 million.
Departamento de Estado / KPMG ↗Depósitos ene–sep: US$12.260 M · asignado a tasa fija desde el 31-mar: US$9.322 M · saldo al 30-sep: US$169 M · pago a KPMG: US$18,2 MAccording to the report, the BCV decides how much each bank receives using criteria such as liquidity needs and macroeconomic targets, and debits each bank's bolívares at the rate it sets; $9.322 billion went out that way. The published breakdown is by sector and by bank; the detail of each sale, with the buyer's tax ID, goes to the State Department and KPMG.
Whoever gets an allocation at the BCV rate: according to the report, 77% of what was sold went to companies, led by food and consumer goods (35.8%).
Whoever is left out of the allocation, and anyone trying to assess it: the document does not say what rate applied to each allocation or who bought.
INDICADORThe rate of each allocation and the results of the controls (rejected deposits, excluded recipients) in a future report, along with fourth-quarter deposits. · Sin fecha: el documento es un corte al 30 de septiembre y dice que podrá actualizarse.
Over the eight trading sessions from November 2 to 11, Brent in our daily series averaged $97.05, against 108.18 over October's 22 sessions: $11.12 less.
With the $8-to-$18 discount band in effect from this edition, November's Merey falls between $79 and $89, entirely below the 91.66 OPEC recorded as October's average. A month with lower Brent and a discount that reached $16.52 in October cuts the value of every exported barrel. The calculation uses only final closes and leaves out Thursday the 12th's session. The test is OPEC's December monthly report, which will give November's observed Merey price.
Buyers of Venezuelan crude priced off Brent: November's barrel costs them less than October's anywhere in the band.
PDVSA and its joint-venture partners, who sell every barrel exported in November below October's average.
Next week's question is whether this week's two institutional pieces meet their dates: supreme court applications close on Wednesday the 18th and, if the Executive received the power law the day it was passed, the constitutional deadline to enact it runs out around Friday the 20th. Before that, the EU Foreign Affairs Council meets on Monday the 16th, where Spain says a majority backs lifting sanctions on Delcy Rodríguez, and on Tuesday the 17th PDVSA's commercial creditors take to Caracas their agenda for reconciling overdue invoices.
- →Lunes 16 de noviembre — EU Foreign Affairs Council — Spain says a majority backs lifting sanctions on Delcy Rodríguez, but lifting them requires unanimity
- →Martes 17 de noviembre — PDVSA commercial creditors' forum in Caracas — suppliers are asking for an audited register of overdue invoices as a condition for regaining foreign credit
- →Miércoles 18 de noviembre — Supreme court applications close — it opens the evaluation and challenges that produce the court the election roadmap needs
- →Hacia el viernes 20 de noviembre — Deadline to enact the power law, if the Executive received it on the 10th — publication starts the 180-day clock for the regulations that set the tariff between private parties