WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • ELECTRICIDAD

    The National Assembly passed the electricity reform: tariffs indexed to the official euro rate, concessions of up to 25 years and arbitration; the Gazette is pending.

    Artículos: 119 · votación: unánime · reglamento: 180 días · fondo de subsidios: 1 año

    affects industry and retailers that buy power, oil operators and anyone generating to sell

  • DIVISAS

    According to KPMG, of $12.26 billion deposited from January to September in the oil account, about $11.7 billion went to foreign-exchange auctions.

    Trafigura y Vitol: 61% de los depósitos · saldo al 30-sep: ~US$170 M

    affects banks that buy foreign currency at the auctions and anyone pricing at the official rate

  • SANCIONES

    Spain's foreign minister says most of the EU supports lifting sanctions on Delcy Rodríguez; the Council decides by unanimity.

    Consejo de Exteriores: 16-nov · régimen vigente hasta el 10-ene-2027

    affects European companies doing business with the Venezuelan Executive

  • WASHINGTON

    The House of Representatives sent the Hegseth impeachment to committee, 211 to 204; it called the January 3 operation an "act of war".

    Votación: 211-204 · artículos: 8, uno sobre Venezuela

    affects anyone relying on the U.S. custody and licensing framework for Venezuelan crude

01MARKET PULSE · HOYKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$91.82
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
899.27
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$78-84
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$13033.00B
PRODUCCIÓN
—
bpd
INFLACIÓN · OCT
6.2%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

Once the law is in the Gazette, industry's power will be billed in bolívars at the official euro rate, and the official rate is propped up by dollars that pass through an account in New York: according to KPMG, about $11.7 billion of the $12.26 billion deposited from January to September went out to the banks' auctions. With Brent 19.1% below October 30, unless export volume makes up for it, less flows into that account, and the indexed tariff passes any adjustment in the official rate on to the cost of production. The test is the Gazette: whether it keeps the anchor, and which body sets the tariff. On the agenda: the EU Foreign Affairs Council on November 16, PDVSA's commercial creditors on the 17th and the signing deadline around the 20th.

02THE FIGUREKey number in context
The consultancy expects a restructuring "considerably less favorable" for creditors
200000million dollars or more is what Venezuela's recognized debt could total, versus about $160 billion, according to Signum Global

Signum Global estimates that, with claims verification still incomplete, the debt Venezuela ends up recognizing could rise from about $160 billion to more than $200 billion.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

The consultancy attributes 85% to 90% of the lower recovery it projects to more conservative production assumptions, and 3% to 7% to delays: it expects about 100,000 more barrels a day in six months and pushes the 1.5 million target to the fourth quarter of 2027. The ad hoc bondholder group holds about 40% of principal. The debt sustainability analysis Signum expected by the third quarter at the latest is still unpublished. On Tuesday the 17th, PDVSA's commercial creditors committee presents its own in Caracas, commissioned from a consultancy.

WHO GAINS

The debtor, if the haircut is larger; among creditors, those with validated invoices before the debt perimeter is closed.

WHO LOSES

03RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Electricidad · Reforma legalURGENTEMIXTOSanción, 10

The National Assembly unanimously passed on Tuesday the 10th the reform of the Organic Law of the Electric System and Service; the acting president still has to sign it and publish it in the Gazette.

EVENTO

With the 24 remaining articles, the plenary completed on Tuesday the 10th the second reading of the reform's 119 articles and sent it to the Executive to be signed into law. The passed text, not yet published, allows private concessions of up to 25 years and mediation and arbitration to settle disputes. Jorge Rodríguez, president of the Assembly, confirmed that tariffs will be indexed to the highest-value currency, with a subsidy for those who cannot pay the full tariff to be set out in regulations.

Asamblea Nacional ↗Artículos: 119 · votación: unánime · concesiones: hasta 25 años · tarifa: moneda de mayor valor del BCV · Gaceta: pendiente
VE Análisis

With an indexed tariff, the bill in bolívars rises with the official euro rate, and whoever sells power to industry is paid shielded from depreciation. When a concession of up to 25 years expires, it reverts to Corpoelec with its assets free of encumbrances, and the superintendent who sets grid tolls is appointed by the Executive. Who sets the tariff, and how long oil operators have to comply, will be in the Gazette.

QUIÉN GANA

Private generators selling to industry and retailers with revenue anchored to the official euro rate, and investors, who gain access to arbitration.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Industry and retailers, which according to Rodríguez will pay the full indexed tariff, and Corpoelec, which loses its exclusivity over those customers.

INDICADORThe full text in the Official Gazette: who sets the tariff, whether arbitration and the encumbrance-free reversion survive, and the compliance period for oil operators. · Hacia el 20 de noviembre de 2026, si el Ejecutivo recibió la ley el 10: la Constitución (art. 214) le da 10 días para promulgarla desde que la recibe.

Divisas · Ingreso petrolerohighMIXTOCuenta de custodia, ene

A confidential KPMG report for the U.S. government counts $12.26 billion deposited from January to September in the account holding Venezuela's oil revenue.

EVENTO

The account, which the U.S. Treasury opened in Qatar and moved to Citibank in New York in late January, received $12.26 billion between January 3 and September 30. Each withdrawal is signed off by State Department and Treasury officials, at the central bank's request. About $11.7 billion went to Venezuelan banks' foreign-exchange auctions and $130 million to debt owed to governments and international bodies. On September 30, $170 million remained. Trafigura and Vitol supplied 61% of the deposits.

The New York Times — informe de KPMG ↗Depósitos ene–sep: US$12.260 M · a subastas: ~US$11.700 M · a deuda: ~US$130 M · saldo al 30-sep: ~US$170 M · Trafigura y Vitol: 61%
VE Análisis

The crude sold by the Venezuelan government is paid into that account; the central bank requests the funds and, once released, almost all of them go to the auctions that supply banks with foreign currency. The account is not all of the revenue: Chevron and NABEP have their own arrangements, and much of the gold leaves outside it. The report is not public and does not identify who bought the auctioned dollars.

QUIÉN GANA

The central bank, which had a steady flow for its auctions, and Trafigura and Vitol, which accounted for 61% of the deposits.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Private creditors, who cannot seize the account and were not paid from it, and the exchange rate, propped up by a flow that ended September with a $170 million balance.

INDICADORA response from the Treasury or the State Department to the figures, and a KPMG report covering the fourth quarter. · Desde el 11 de noviembre de 2026; el cuarto trimestre cierra el 31 de diciembre de 2026.

Sanciones · Unión EuropeahighPOSITIVODeclaración en Bruselas, 10

José Manuel Albares, Spain's foreign minister, said on Tuesday the 10th in Brussels that a majority of EU countries support lifting sanctions on the acting president.

EVENTO

Albares said the High Representative, Kaja Kallas, agreed "from the first moment" and is talking with the "few countries" that still have reservations; he did not name them. Spain proposed the lifting in February. The EU's Venezuela sanctions regime, with asset freezes and travel bans, was extended in December 2025 until January 10, 2027, and any change to the list requires the Council's unanimity.

Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores de España — vía El Nacional ↗Decisión: unanimidad de 27 · Consejo de Exteriores: 16-nov · régimen vigente hasta: 10-ene-2027 · propuesta española: feb-2026
VE Análisis

With unanimity, a single state is enough to keep Delcy Rodríguez on the list. The natural occasion is the regime's renewal before January 10; before that, the Foreign Affairs Council meets on November 16, with no published agenda. Foreign Minister Oliver Blanco received EU heads of mission in Caracas on Tuesday; the official note speaks of trade and investment, not sanctions.

QUIÉN GANA

The interim government, which would have a president free of European sanctions, and European companies signing deals with its Executive.

QUIÉN PIERDE

European conditionality: if the listing falls before there is a new electoral council and an election date, the EU loses that lever.

INDICADORThe EU Council's decision on the list of people sanctioned over Venezuela. · Consejo de Asuntos Exteriores del 16 de noviembre de 2026; renovación del régimen antes del 10 de enero de 2027.

VE Pulse · Core indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.