- ELECCIONES
Machado and González endorse Washington's roadmap: a new supreme court and electoral council, a declared vacancy and a vote within six months.
Plazo tras los nombramientos: 6 meses · TSJ: designación prevista 11-dic · fecha de la elección: sin fijar
affects anyone signing contracts with the caretaker government, and voters
- ELECTRICIDAD
Corpoelec, the state power company, hires two barges from Turkey's Karpowership to add 200 MW in Zulia, the western oil state.
Potencia: 200 MW · plazo, precio y llegada: sin publicar · reforma eléctrica: 95 de 119 artículos
affects industry and households in Zulia, and anyone selling power generation in Venezuela
- PETRÓLEO
Chevron again books its share of the output and reserves of its three joint ventures in Venezuela, for the first time since 2020.
Reservas reconocidas al cierre de 2025: ninguna · mayores cargas: +US$470 M frente al 3T-2025 · cambio contable: desde el 1-sep
affects PDVSA, the joint ventures' majority partner, and engineering and service firms in the Orinoco Belt
Chevron is booking as its own reserves that depend on contracts signed with a caretaker government, and in the same week the roadmap to replace that government won the opposition's signature. Both run on the same calendar: if the supreme court and the electoral council are named in December, the election falls in mid-2027, and the government it produces will inherit terms that, according to Chevron, are meant to support durable investment. Rubio left one piece of that handover open: restructuring the debt, he said, is the interim authorities' job, but it 'could well extend' to an elected one. The first test comes next week, when the talks take up the electoral referee.
María Corina Machado and Edmundo González endorsed on Thursday the 5th, in the Madrid Declaration, the Washington roadmap that sets the presidential vote six months after the new appointments.
In the Madrid Declaration, posted on Thursday the 5th at 08:41 ET, María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia write that, according to the State Department, once the court and electoral authorities are appointed, something 'announced for the end of 2026', the president's permanent absence will be declared and an election called 'within the following six months.' 'We endorse this plan as a reasonable path,' they say. The same day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said elections would 'ideally' be held next year and would not guarantee them before Trump leaves office.
María Corina Machado y Edmundo González ↗Plazo tras TSJ y CNE: 6 meses · TSJ: designación prevista 11-dic · CNE: ronda de diálogo 11-15 nov · Rubio: elecciones «idealmente» en 2027The plan ties the vote to two appointments, not to a date. The supreme court is due to be named on December 11 and talks on the electoral council open on November 11; with both in place in December, the six months run out in mid-2027, close to the July 24 date Machado had already floated on October 18. Rubio added a condition: progress on restructuring the debt, which he said 'hangs like a cloud that blocks investment.'
Delcy Rodríguez's caretaker government, which adds the opposition's endorsement to a roadmap that keeps it in office until there is a vote.
Anyone waiting for an elected government to close long-term deals: Rubio said the debt restructuring 'could well extend to an elected authority,' and the roadmap has no date.
INDICADORAn agreement on the new electoral council and the list of supreme court candidates. · Cierre de postulaciones al TSJ el 11 de noviembre; ronda de diálogo del 11 al 15 de noviembre; designación del TSJ prevista para el 11 de diciembre de 2026.
The acting president hailed Corpoelec's deal with Turkey's Karpowership on Wednesday the 4th for two power barges with 200 MW for Zulia; no term, price or arrival date was released.
Delcy Rodríguez hailed the agreement between Corpoelec, the state power company, and Turkey's Karpowership on Wednesday the 4th at 19:26 ET on her Telegram channel, 'for the hiring of two power generation barges' that will add 200 megawatts in Zulia. The vice president for public works, Juan José Ramírez, spoke of 'immediately starting the fitting and installation.' Karpowership has published nothing about Venezuela: its latest release is dated October 28. The term, structure, price, fuel and arrival date are not known.
Presidencia encargada de Venezuela ↗Potencia: 200 MW en 2 barcazas · plazo, precio, combustible y llegada: sin publicar · antecedente: 2 × 171 MW en Tacoa, abril de 2011It is contracted generation that arrives by sea and does not wait for grid repairs, which move more slowly: IMPSA is restoring 160 MW at Macagua on a timeline pointing to late January 2027, and GE Vernova is waiting for the state's first payment to start. Venezuela has used the model before: in April 2011, Waller Marine installed two 171 MW barges at Tacoa to supply Caracas.
Karpowership, which comes in as a supplier to the state power company, and industry in Zulia, the western oil state, if the barges generate before the repairs arrive.
Corpoelec, which takes on the contract with neither its price per megawatt hour nor its term disclosed.
INDICADORThe arrival and mooring of the two barges on Lake Maracaibo, and a Karpowership statement or the contract's text. · Sin fecha anunciada al 5 de noviembre de 2026; las unidades 5 y 6 de Macagua, hacia fines de enero de 2027.
Chevron said on Thursday the 5th, in its quarterly report to the SEC, that since September 1 it books its share of the output and reserves of its three joint ventures with PDVSA, something it had not done since 2020.
In the third-quarter report it filed with the SEC on Thursday the 5th, Chevron says that since September 1 it accounts for Petroboscan, Petropiar and Petroindependencia, its joint ventures with PDVSA, under the equity method, because of improved 'fiscal, commercial and legal' terms, and that it 'now recognizes' its share of their earnings, output and reserves. Since 2020 it had booked income only when it was paid in cash, and as of December 31, 2025 it recognized no proved reserves in Venezuela.
Chevron — formulario 10-Q ante la SEC ↗Reservas probadas en Venezuela al cierre de 2025: ninguna · nuevo método desde el 1-sep · mayores cargas: +US$470 M frente al 3T-2025 · Petroboscan 39,2%, Petropiar 30%, Petroindependencia 35,8%To book proved reserves with the SEC, an oil company needs reasonable certainty that it can produce them under the contracts and rules in force. On October 30, Chevron said the joint ventures will invest $7 billion over five years, with the potential to more than double output. According to the report, the change is not expected to significantly alter the amount or timing of the earnings it recognizes.
Engineering firms in the Orinoco Belt: Fluor signed a memorandum on Wednesday the 4th with Venezuela-based Inelectra; together they built the Hamaca upgrader, which now processes Petropiar's crude.
ConocoPhillips, expropriated in 2007 from Hamaca, now Petropiar: it has collected about $795 million on an award of about $2 billion, the same figure as in March, according to its report on Thursday the 5th.
INDICADORThe proved reserves Chevron attributes to Venezuela in its 2026 annual report, and the output of its three joint ventures. · Informe anual (10-K) de Chevron, hacia fines de febrero de 2027 si repite el calendario de este año (24 de febrero).
Luis Vicente León, head of the polling and consulting firm Datanálisis, presented on Thursday the 5th at the congress of Cavececo, the shopping-center trade group, a forecast of inflation near 350% for 2026 and growth of 6% to 7%.
The central bank released October inflation of 6.2% on Wednesday the 4th, the lowest of the year according to the bank, and a cumulative 245.5% since January. To end 2026 at 350%, November and December would have to add close to 30%, about 14% a month: more than double October's pace (our calculation). The forecast was built on September's 8.4% reading, so it may already be dated; if not, it points to a year-end with more pressure than last month. The test is November inflation, which the central bank would publish in early December.
Anyone with income or savings in foreign currency, which does not lose purchasing power at the pace of bolívares.
Anyone paid in bolívares: the minimum wage has been Bs 130 since March 2022 and the announced raises start in 2027.
Next week's question is whether the government and the 2015 Assembly agree, starting Wednesday the 11th, on who sits on the National Electoral Council. Nominations for the supreme court close the same day: these are the two appointments still missing before the countdown to the presidential vote can begin. Also on Wednesday the 11th, OPEC publishes last month's output based on its secondary sources.
- →Miércoles 11 de noviembre — Nominations for the new supreme court close — it opens the list of candidates for the first of the two appointments the election roadmap calls for
- →Miércoles 11 de noviembre — OPEC publishes its monthly market report — it will show whether national output reflects the barrels NABEP and the joint ventures say they have added since August
- →Del miércoles 11 al domingo 15 de noviembre — Fourth round of talks between the government and the 2015 Assembly — the new electoral council is the other half of the roadmap; without it, the six-month clock for the election does not start
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn November 4 we set a watch on whether Caracas would confirm or deny negotiating a status-of-forces agreement for U.S. troops in Venezuela.
Washington toned it down. Marco Rubio said on Thursday the 5th that the U.S. 'would like at some point to have a presence agreement,' 'largely from a legal standpoint,' and that the matter has not been discussed in detail between the two governments. Caracas neither confirmed nor denied it.
On November 4 we set a watch on final passage of the power-sector reform at second reading, which had reached article 24.
It moved up to article 95 of 119. The Assembly approved another 70 articles on Thursday the 5th, including a self-generation regime for the oil industry that gives its critical loads priority over surplus power. Twenty-four articles and two deferred ones remain, for a session with no date set.