- DEUDA
The US told the Third Circuit it has no view on the six-month pause Venezuela seeks in the appeal over the Citgo sale.
Alegatos orales: 21-oct · pausa pedida: seis meses · caja de Citgo según Venezuela: US$5.000 M
affects Amber, creditors holding Delaware judgments and PDVSA 2020 bondholders
- INSTITUCIONAL
The National Assembly put off until its committee is seated the jurists' council Washington presented as the screen for Supreme Court candidates.
Aspirantes al comité: 127 para 12 asientos · entrevistas hasta el 16-oct · magistrados a elegir: 32
affects anyone signing contracts subject to Venezuelan courts
- PETRÓLEO
Primavera, the oil company co-founded by Fred Ehrsam, is preparing to operate PDVSA fields with three former Chevron Venezuela executives on its team.
Meta de corto plazo: 100.000 b/d · campos: sin nombrar · contratos firmados con PDVSA: 2-sep
affects PDVSA, Chevron and oilfield service contractors
The pause was Venezuela's way to bring Citgo into its debt restructuring instead of having it sold off on its own. Without Washington's view, that path now depends only on the Third Circuit, which hears the parties on October 21. The sale's other key is not in Caracas either: it is the OFAC license Amber needs to close. For anyone holding judgments or bonds backed by Citgo, the two decisions that count are made in the United States. In Caracas, the dialogue round that opens this Wednesday takes up another timetable that matters to anyone signing contracts with the Venezuelan state: who screens the candidates for the Supreme Court's 32 seats before December.
Total reserve requirement for universal, commercial and microfinance banks in the week ending October 16, 2026, according to the central bank.
The central bank requires banks to hold 2.32 trillion bolívars as reserves in the week ending October 16, about $2.64 billion at the official rate; a week earlier it was 2.15 trillion. The rule has not changed: since September 15, universal and commercial banks must hold 73% of their demand and savings deposits in reserve, so the amount rises with deposits and that money is not lent. Fedecámaras, the country's largest business confederation, said at its October 8-9 assembly that credit is below 4% of GDP and asked for a lower reserve ratio. The central bank's meeting with banks on Monday the 12th announced no changes.
In a letter dated October 13, the US government told the Third Circuit it has no view to express on the six-month pause Venezuela seeks in the appeal over the Citgo sale.
In a one-paragraph letter entered on Tuesday the 13th at 2:44 p.m. ET, the Justice Department answered the Third Circuit's third invitation by saying the United States has no views to express on the litigation at this time. The same day, Venezuela filed its reply: it still seeks to suspend for six months its appeal against the sale of PDV Holding, Citgo's parent, to Amber Energy, with semiannual reports on the restructuring, and argues that Citgo has $5 billion in available cash. Oral argument remains set for October 21.
Tercer Circuito ↗Pausa pedida: 6 meses · caja de Citgo según Venezuela: US$5.000 M · cierre de la venta: 7 días tras la licencia OFAC · financiamiento de Amber: abril de 2027 · alegatos orales: 21-octGold Reserve, a creditor in the case, backed a six-month pause only if Washington supported it too, and that condition was not met. The sale to Amber can close seven days after OFAC issues the license. Amber warns that its financing expires in April 2027; Venezuela replies that the date only marks when Amber and the PDVSA 2020 bondholders must agree whether to extend it.
Amber Energy and the creditors opposing the pause, such as Crystallex and ConocoPhillips: Gold Reserve's support for the stay hinged on Washington, and Washington did not give it.
Venezuela, which sought to freeze the appeal while it restructures its debt: it reaches October 21 without the backing of the government whose Treasury must issue the license the sale needs.
INDICADORThe Third Circuit's ruling on Venezuela's motion to suspend the appeal for six months. · Alegatos orales el miércoles 21 de octubre de 2026, en Filadelfia.
The National Assembly began interviewing 127 applicants for the Judicial Nominations Committee on Tuesday the 13th and said the jurists' council named in the dialogue will be weighed once the committee is seated.
Giusseppe Alessandrello, who chairs the National Assembly's Preliminary Commission, announced this Tuesday that interviews with the 127 applicants for the 12 civil-society seats on the Judicial Nominations Committee will run until Friday the 16th, and that the list of eligible applicants could reach the floor next week. On the Evaluation Council named by the dialogue table, he said that proposal will be weighed after the committee is seated. He estimated that the candidates for justices could be presented in the first week of December.
Asamblea Nacional ↗Aspirantes: 127 para 12 asientos · entrevistas: hasta el 16-oct · comité: 11 diputados + 12 civiles · consejo de juristas: 7 · magistrados: 32 · candidatos: primera semana de diciembre (estimación)The September 30 timetable put the list before the floor on October 15; it now slips by a week. On October 9 Washington presented that council as a seven-judge body that will screen candidates and send only qualified jurists to the committee, with a majority chosen by the 2015 Assembly. For the commission running the process, it is still a proposal.
The preliminary commission, with 8 of its 11 members from the PSUV: it preselects the 12 civil-society members, then joins the committee, and for now sets when each screen comes in.
The 2015 Assembly's delegation to the dialogue, which chose the council's majority: its screen depends on the sitting Assembly adopting a proposal it has yet to weigh.
INDICADORThe text closing the third dialogue round, which opens on Wednesday the 14th and focuses on completing the Supreme Court selection. · Desde el 14 de octubre de 2026; la lista de elegibles podría ir a la plenaria la semana del 19.
Primavera announced on October 13 that it is preparing to operate oil fields under the contracts it signed with PDVSA on September 2, and presented a team with former Chevron Venezuela and Occidental executives.
Primavera, headquartered in Houston and Caracas, said in its release that it is advancing preparations to take over operations of oil fields in Venezuela, under the agreements it signed on September 2 at Miraflores with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and PDVSA. Oscar Quintero, who headed Occidental's enhanced oil recovery division, will lead operations; Mario Gandara, Jorge Castro and Ivette Lopez, from Chevron Venezuela's leadership team, take over the commercial, finance and legal areas. The release names Fred Ehrsam, Manuel Iribarren and Dheeraj Verma as founders and does not identify the fields.
Primavera ↗Meta de corto plazo: 100.000 b/d (Iribarren) · Budare-Elotes: >70.000 b/d incrementales (anuncio del 2-sep) · exdirectivos de Chevron Venezuela: 3 · campos: sin nombrarPrimavera does not yet operate any field: the team it presents is the capacity to do so. In an interview, Iribarren set a near-term goal of 100,000 barrels a day without saying in which fields or how it will be financed beyond the three partners' own capital. At the signing on September 2, the Budare-Elotes block was announced for Primavera, with more than 70,000 barrels a day of incremental output.
Primavera: it brings in the people who ran Chevron's commercial, finance and legal areas in Venezuela, with ties to the Ministry and PDVSA that, the company says, will make it a better partner.
Chevron: three members of its leadership team in Venezuela move to a new operator that does not yet produce.
INDICADORPrimavera or PDVSA naming the fields the company will take over and its first output. · Sin fecha anunciada; la empresa promete hitos en los próximos meses. Primer corte de seguimiento: 13 de noviembre de 2026.
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn October 12 we tested the PDVSA president's math, 18,000 to 20,000 more barrels a day each month through end-2027, against the September output Venezuela would report to OPEC.
OPEC's report on Tuesday the 13th records 1.206 million barrels a day through direct communication, 5,000 more than in August: less than a third of the projected pace. OPEC's secondary sources estimate 1.15 million, up about 18,000.
On October 13 we asked whether the IMF would attribute its new Venezuela series to the central bank or present it as a staff estimate.
The report's methodological note answers before Wednesday's panel: the Fund revised the historical series to incorporate official data, particularly national accounts and the balance of payments, and its sources table lists the central bank as the origin, with 2025 as the latest observed year; in April it was 2018. Fiscal accounts remain staff estimates from 2018 onward, and public debt is not published owing to market sensitivity.