WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • ELECTRICIDAD

    The head of the state power company said a generation spare part takes more than a year to arrive and that demand is met by sharing out what there is.

    Demanda de la semana: 16.424 megavatios · repuestos con entrega superior a un año · unidades de Termozulia en recuperación hasta enero de 2027

    affects anyone with a plant, shifts or supply contracts in the west of the country for 2027

  • ENERGÍA

    Guyana asked at the UN that Venezuela abide by the ruling the International Court of Justice has been deliberating since May, on which the northwest of the Stabroek block depends.

    Stabroek: ExxonMobil 45%, Chevron 30%, CNOOC 25% · lectura de la sentencia sin fecha · audiencias cerradas el 11 de mayo

    affects Stabroek's partners and anyone valuing assets on both sides of the border

  • FINANZAS

    Fifteen governments announced asset freezes on 24 organizations, the Cartel de los Soles among them, and Chile clarified that each country applies it under its own rules.

    Declaración del 22 de septiembre · 15 firmantes · 24 organizaciones · petición a la OEA para convocar el TIAR

    affects compliance officers at banks and trading houses with Venezuelan counterparties in the region

01MARKET PULSE · SEMANAKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$104.83
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
855.66
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$91-97
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$13.04B
PRODUCCIÓN · AUG
1.201M
bpd
INFLACIÓN · AUG
8.9%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

Of the week, what goes into a budget is electricity. The grid's operator said a generation part is more than twelve months away, and the only date the government gave at that press conference, January 2027, is for Termozulia units. A plan starting this quarter in the west runs on its own plant or on the allocation Corpoelec decides each morning. Oil operators have had that autonomy as an obligation since July's hydrocarbons regulation; commerce and industry depend on the allocation. The Hague and the fifteen capitals of the Shield of the Americas move a different variable, who one may operate with and where, and the Court has set no day for its judgment. The first thing that could change the calculation is a load schedule published by Corpoelec.

02RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Electricidad · Horizonte de reparaciónURGENTENEGATIVORueda de prensa en la Gobernación del Zulia

Corpoelec's president said on Wednesday the 23rd that deliveries of generation spares exceed a year; the sectoral vice-president dated the recovery of Termozulia units to January 2027.

EVENTO

Juan Crisóstomo Fernández, president of the national power company, said on Wednesday the 23rd at a press conference at the Zulia governor's office that delivery times to repair a generating unit exceed a year, and that demand is met with available generation: as far as it reaches, it has to be shared out. He gave no timeline for closing the deficit. Juan José Ramírez, sectoral vice-president for Public Works and Services, put the week's national demand at 16,424 megawatts and said Termozulia units will remain in recovery until January 2027.

Corpoelec y Vicepresidencia de Obras Públicas — vía El Pitazo ↗Demanda de la semana: 16.424 MW · 16.030 MW el 18-sep, máximo en nueve años · entrega de repuestos de generación: más de un año · Termozulia: unidades en recuperación hasta enero de 2027
VE Análisis

Demand is rising with the heat and with the recovery, by the government's own account, and supply is not keeping pace: plant components are designed and built to order for the Venezuelan system, and replacing them takes over a year. The electricity ministry had reported 16,030 megawatts on September 18, the highest level in nine years. With no published load schedule, the allocation is estimated each morning.

QUIÉN GANA

Oil operators already generating their own power: the July 7 hydrocarbons regulation requires them to be autonomous from the grid, and those with it installed do not depend on each morning's allocation.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Industry and commerce in the west without their own plant: they schedule shifts against an allocation with no published timetable and no date for closing the deficit.

INDICADORAn official load-management schedule published by Corpoelec, or the Termozulia units returning to generation ahead of the announced date. · Enero de 2027 es el horizonte que dio el vicepresidente sectorial para Termozulia; el cronograma no tiene fecha.

Energía · Frontera en litigioURGENTEMIXTODiscurso ante la 81.ª Asamblea General

Irfaan Ali asked the General Assembly on Thursday the 24th that Venezuela abide by the ruling the International Court of Justice has been deliberating since May; the day before, Caracas had asked him to return to the Geneva Agreement.

EVENTO

Guyana's president, Irfaan Ali, asked the 81st General Assembly on Thursday the 24th that Venezuela abide by the International Court of Justice's forthcoming ruling on the 1899 award, in line with the UN Charter, and said Guyana will do the same. He noted that both countries took part in the merits hearings, which closed on May 11; the Court has not announced a reading date. The day before, the acting president had demanded that Guyana return to the 1966 Geneva Agreement.

Presidencia de Guyana — vía EIN News ↗Discurso del 24-sep-2026 · audiencias cerradas el 11-may · lectura sin fecha · Stabroek: ExxonMobil 45%, Chevron 30%, CNOOC 25% · más de 11.000 millones de barriles equivalentes descubiertos
VE Análisis

The northwest of the Stabroek block, the area closest to Venezuela, is under force majeure because of the dispute. On February 20, Guyana's natural resources minister, Vickram Bharrat, said his government denied ExxonMobil permission to explore it until the Court rules; on January 30, the company's chief executive, Darren Woods, had called that ruling one of the unlocks for that area.

QUIÉN GANA

Caracas's position on the ground: the part of Stabroek closest to its claim remains unexplored, by Georgetown's decision, until the Court rules.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Stabroek's three partners —ExxonMobil with 45%, Chevron with 30% since it bought Hess, and China's CNOOC with 25%— with the block's northwest idle and undated. Chevron also operates in Venezuela and expanded its position there on September 2.

INDICADORAn International Court of Justice press release setting the public sitting to deliver the judgment. · Sin fecha anunciada; las audiencias de fondo cerraron el 11 de mayo de 2026.

Finanzas · Perímetro de cumplimientoEN CURSOMIXTODeclaración conjunta del Escudo de las Américas

The Shield of the Americas declaration of Tuesday the 22nd announces asset freezes on 24 organizations, the Cartel de los Soles among them; on Wednesday, Chile's foreign minister said each country applies it under its own rules.

EVENTO

The United States and fourteen other governments declared on Tuesday the 22nd their intention to impose asset freezes, visa restrictions and criminal liability for material support on 24 organizations, with Tren de Aragua and the Cartel de los Soles on the list, however each country names them. The text also proposes exploring investment screening mechanisms and asking the OAS for a consultation meeting under the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, the Rio Treaty. On Wednesday, Chile's foreign minister, Francisco Pérez Mackenna, said each country will apply it under its own rules.

Departamento de Estado de EE. UU. y otros catorce gobiernos ↗Declaración del 22-sep-2026 · 15 firmantes · 24 organizaciones, con el Cartel de los Soles en la 14 · pilar económico: control de inversiones · petición a la OEA bajo el TIAR
VE Análisis

The declaration announces measures each signatory has to enact on its own, with its own act and its own definition of member, associate or supporter. The United States has designated the Cartel de los Soles a foreign terrorist organization since November 24, 2025; for the other fourteen, the name enters their law when each publishes that act. This is not a one-size-fits-all suit, Chile's foreign minister said on Wednesday.

QUIÉN GANA

Banks and trading houses already screening against the US Treasury list: the Cartel de los Soles has been in their filter since 2025, and what gets added is jurisdictions.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Whoever operates in several countries in the region with Venezuelan counterparties: they may end up with up to fifteen definitions of member, associate or supporter, each with its own effective date.

INDICADORThe first implementing act by a signatory other than the United States —a gazette, resolution or national list— or the OAS Permanent Council convening the Rio Treaty consultation meeting. · Cuarto trimestre de 2026; la declaración no fija plazo.

03THE FIGURE · WEEKKey number in context
The whole Caracas Stock Exchange is worth slightly more than the central bank's reserves
14235million dollars, the value of the Caracas Stock Exchange

The dollar capitalization of the companies listed on the Caracas Stock Exchange, as reported by the exchange.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

The Caracas Stock Exchange closed Thursday the 24th with a capitalization of $14.235 billion, slightly more than the central bank's $13.037 billion in international reserves as of September 22. What changes hands each day is far smaller: that Thursday 4.022 billion bolívars traded, about $4.7 million, and nearly 99% of it was in term operations. The regular equity market moved about $57,000. The exchange's board reported on Wednesday a meeting with economic officers from the US embassy to review financing mechanisms in fixed income and equities.

IMPLICACIÓN POSITIVA

IMPLICACIÓN NEGATIVA

04OUTLOOK EDITORIALDel 26 de septiembre al 5 de octubre de 2026
OUTLOOK EDITORIALMesa Editorial, Vene Economist
The coming week plays out in Caracas. From Monday to Wednesday, the international oil and gas summit brings Shell, Repsol and bp to the capital, with a panel on cross-border gas shared by Trinidad and Tobago's energy chamber and Venezuelan gas processors. On Thursday the deadline that Monagas oil retirees gave PDVSA to account for their pension fund expires, and on Sunday Venezuela takes its seat on the OPEC+ monitoring committee. On Monday the 5th, counted in calendar days, the ninety extendable days the hydrocarbons regulation gave the ministry to publish its technical standards run out, including those that set the conditions for oil operators' self-generated power.
UNCERTAINTY
Medium
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
  • →Lunes 28 a miércoles 30 de septiembre — Venezuela International Oil & Gas Summit and Caracas Gas Forum, at the JW Marriott — bp and Trinidad and Tobago's energy chamber share a panel on monetizing cross-border gas, with the Dragon fiscal formula still unwritten; Shell, Repsol and Eneva are among the speakers
  • →Jueves 1 de octubre — Monagas oil retirees' deadline for PDVSA to account for the pension fund — the association puts the debt owed to retirees at nearly $5 billion; a response from the state company would put that liability in writing
  • →Domingo 4 de octubre — Meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries and of the ministerial monitoring committee, of which Venezuela is a member — it sets the group's November supply, and Merey trades at a discount to the Brent that supply moves
  • →Lunes 5 de octubre, contados corridos — The ninety extendable days the hydrocarbons regulation gave the ministry to publish its technical standards run out — those standards set the conditions for the self-generated power that article 33 requires of oil operators; without them there is nothing to measure compliance against
05

HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING

indicators we issued in earlier editions
  • Did not holdedition #136 · 2026-09-18

    On September 18 we set a watch on whether the US energy agency's weekly series would confirm the 782,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude it printed for the week to September 11.

    It did not. The series published on Wednesday the 23rd printed 583,000 barrels a day for the week to September 18. The average of the last four weeks came to about 640,000, practically the same as the four before, and Venezuela has now run 22 straight weeks ahead of Saudi Arabia as a US supplier. The volume is holding; the week to the 11th was a spike.

VE Pulse · Close indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.