- DESTINO
August exports held up, but crude going to the United States fell from July's record and India and Europe made up the difference.
EE. UU. desde un récord de 786.000 b/d en julio · India 297.000 b/d · Europa unos 260.000 b/d
affects anyone who valued a Venezuelan barrel assuming its natural buyer is the Gulf Coast
- PRECIOS
August's price index came in at 8.9% monthly, less than half July's, and the central bank attributes it to the exchange rate and the return of distribution channels.
8,9% en agosto contra 19,9% en julio · segunda variación más baja del año
affects anyone replacing imported inventory and collecting in bolivars on thirty-day terms
There is a channel linking the barrel to the light bulb, and it is physical: the upgraders and blending stations that make extra-heavy crude shippable run on grid power. The late-July blackout stopped all of them, and in August the tanker queue grew. Opposite them, Gulf Coast refineries closed August at 97.7% and have not dropped below 96.7% since July 17. With less crude ready on time and nowhere to unload it, the barrel went where heavy crude demand actually was: India and Europe. Price does not show that; destination does. And 99% of Zulia's households compete for the same input as those upgraders.
↳ The regulatory calendar shifts a day: whatever arrives from Washington this week compresses into four sessions.
↳ The stated window was one to two weeks. If it is issued and the bank named, bilateral trade regains a payment instrument.
↳ Its August edition assumed the Strait of Hormuz constraints would persist, and that assumption is what opens the Indian market to heavy crude.
↳ It is the first refining reading after August's close, and the one that says whether last month's split has reason to repeat.
↳ The September 2 cut left US$12.712 billion: the cash sustaining imports while oil revenue arrives later.
Tomorrow's official rate is 2.4% above August's Bs 794.99 close, in five business days.
This is the figure to read August's 8.9% against. The deceleration rests, by the central bank's own account, on an exchange rate that varied less, and the rate opening September runs at 2.4% in five business days. Not a contradiction: two different periods, which is why August does not license projecting September. For anyone operating inside the country, the replacement price of imported inventory moves at this pace and not the index's.
August closed with total loadings nearly flat, around 1.17 million barrels a day, and the United States below July's record. India rose 66% and Europe nearly tripled.
August loadings, published on September 1 and expanded on the 4th, came in at the same volume as July, and the split by destination changed. The United States, which set a July record of 786,000 barrels a day, received less; India rose 66% to some 297,000 and Europe nearly tripled to some 260,000. A second vessel-tracking series puts the U.S. drop deeper: from 834,000 barrels a day to 437,000.
Kpler · documentos de PDVSA y monitoreo de buques ↗EE. UU. desde el récord de 786.000 b/d de julio · India 297.000 b/d (+66%) · Europa ~260.000 b/d · serie alterna: EE. UU. de 834.000 a 437.000 b/dTwo constraints act at once and neither is in the reservoir. On the supply side, PDVSA's upgraders and blending stations, which make extra-heavy crude shippable, were shut by the late-July blackout, and in August the tanker queue grew. On the demand side, the Gulf Coast closed August at 97.7% and has not dropped below 96.7% since July 17. What the destination does not change is the collection: to stay clear of sanctions, the non-U.S. refiner deposits payment to PDVSA into January's decree fund.
Indian and European refiners, buying heavy crude at a discount while their usual supplier stays disrupted, and without sanctions exposure.
Whoever produces the barrel and does not collect its price: from the sale Venezuela keeps local taxes, permits and fees, and the rest is disbursed as the State Department determines.
INDICADORwhether Gulf Coast utilization eases when autumn maintenance starts, and whether September repeats August's split · la agencia estadounidense de energía publica el reporte semanal el jueves 10 de septiembre a las 12:00 ET, desplazado del miércoles por el feriado
The central bank published an 8.9% monthly print for August on September 4, against 19.9% in July. It is the year's second lowest, after May's 6.3%.
The Central Bank of Venezuela reported on September 4 that the National Consumer Price Index registered an 8.9% month-on-month variation in August, against 19.9% in July. It attributes the result to the recovery of commercial channels and lower exchange-rate pressure, after the initial impact of the two June 24 earthquakes on goods distribution.
BCV — Banco Central de Venezuela ↗8,9% intermensual en agosto · 19,9% en julio · 6,3% en mayo, la más baja del añoThe central bank names two causes and neither is demand. The two June 24 earthquakes broke goods distribution for weeks, and that break was paid in July's index, the 19.9% one; in August the channels worked again. The second is the exchange rate: when the official rate advances more slowly, the basket's imported component reprices more slowly. In commerce that prices in hard currency and collects in bolivars at the day's rate, the rate's pace governs the index.
Formal commerce replacing imported inventory and collecting on thirty-day terms: the margin stops evaporating inside the collection window.
Wage earners, whose income adjusts with a lag and for whom one month of deceleration does not return what July's 19.9% took.
INDICADORwhether September's index confirms the deceleration with a second single-digit month or gives it back · el banco central publicó el dato de julio el 12 de agosto y el de agosto el 4 de septiembre; el de septiembre cae en la primera quincena de octubre
A measurement presented in Maracaibo on September 5 puts Zulia at 99% of households with daily cuts, the Andean region at 98% and Caracas at 82%.
Polling firm Consultores 21 presented a measurement in Maracaibo, capital of Zulia and the country's second city, on September 5, finding 99% of that state's households suffer daily power cuts. In the Andean region the share is roughly 98% and in Caracas 82%. On August 30 a fault cut service to five western states.
Consultores 21 — vía Infobae ↗Zulia 99% de hogares con cortes diarios · región andina ~98% · Caracas 82% · plan de administración de carga vigente en el Zulia · medición del 5-sep-2026Household service and industry share the same grid, and scarcity is allocated administratively, not by price: where generation falls short, someone decides who gets cut. That turns a 99% into operational risk, not only a social figure. The companies that signed in the Orinoco Belt read it that way, because the State itself proposed that oil companies self-supply.
Distributed generation suppliers and operators able to install their own plant before committing to a production plateau.
Commerce and manufacturing in the west, paying diesel backup, and households with no backup at all.
INDICADORwhether a committed megawatt figure with an in-service date appears for the west, and whether the load management plan is published with verifiable schedules · el compromiso de estabilización de la red anunciado el 4 de septiembre se declaró a seis o doce meses, es decir entre marzo y septiembre de 2027
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn September 1 we set as indicator whether Gulf Coast utilization would ease with autumn maintenance.
It rose. The series shows 97.7% for the week to August 28, above the prior 97.0%, and the 96.7% floor has held since July 17.
On September 3 we set as indicator the August price index published by the central bank.
It came out on September 4 at 8.9% monthly, less than half July's 19.9%, attributed by the bank to smaller exchange-rate variation and channel recovery.