The relationship with the IDB is normalized and lending remains closed: what is missing is not a political decision but two procedures — settling the 2018 default and agreeing a country strategy.
- FINANZAS
The IDB rules out an immediate resumption of lending to Venezuela
3-ago, Montevideo · préstamos suspendidos desde mayo de 2018 · gobernador venezolano aceptado en junio · US$1M en cooperación no reembolsable por el sismo
affects anyone who sized reconstruction work counting on multilateral credit
- INFRAESTRUCTURA
Rationing already covers a shortfall of some 1,800 megawatts and the savings plan meets rejection
déficit racionado del orden de 1.800 MW · 44 kWh por barril · +165.000 bpd exigieron ~300 MW en el primer trimestre · autogeneración obligatoria desde el reglamento de julio
affects the process that cannot stop and whoever already covers outage hours with self-generation
- RIESGO
A bipartisan U.S. Senate resolution calls for elections and the release of political prisoners
4-ago · Cruz (R) y Shaheen (D) con cinco copatrocinantes · resolución simple, sin fuerza de ley · no toca sanciones ni licencias
affects anyone assessing long-cycle projects on permits renewed by the month
Venezuela controls fewer of its dollars than its output suggests. OFAC licenses require authorized oil companies to deposit Venezuelan royalties and taxes into accounts held by the U.S. Treasury, and the use of those funds has not been detailed publicly. The other route is external credit, and the IDB confirmed it will not lend while two procedures remain pending that do not close in weeks. Brent, on top of that, fell close to 10% in five sessions. With one source withheld and the other shut, spending comes out of Central Bank reserves; the next cut publishes on Friday.
The Central Bank published the July 31 cut with international reserves at US$12.820 billion, counting BCV and the Stabilization Fund. The series came from US$13.360 billion on July 23 and fell at every cut that week but one. The next figure publishes on Friday, August 7.
International reserves are the currency's backing and, at the same time, the money available when there is no credit. That they fall US$540 million in a week with Brent still above US$85 during those days indicates the drop comes from spending, not from the price of oil. Every extraordinary outlay — reconstruction, fuel imports, defense of the exchange rate — comes from here while there are no new loans. Friday's cut will say whether the pace holds.
The IDB ruled out on Monday in Montevideo resuming loans to Venezuela. Eight years have passed since the default that suspended them, and there is no date to reopen them.
Ilan Goldfajn, president of the Inter-American Development Bank, said on August 3 in Montevideo that several things have to be worked out before lending to Venezuela can resume. The Bank suspended loans to the country in May 2018 after the default, and that debt will have to be settled in bilateral negotiations. What is running is technical cooperation, data review, macroeconomic policy discussion and earthquake aid. In June the institution accepted Calixto Ortega Sánchez as governor and confirmed a recent visit to Caracas.
BID — Grupo Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo ↗3-ago, Montevideo · préstamos suspendidos desde mayo de 2018 · gobernador aceptado en junio · US$1M no reembolsable por el sismo (2-jul) · sin estrategia de país vigenteThe obstacle is procedural before it is political. The Bank itself states that Venezuela has no current country strategy with the IDB Group, and that document is the prerequisite for approving financing and regaining eligibility. Hence the only thing that has moved this year is non-reimbursable cooperation: the million dollars approved on July 2 for the earthquake emergency. The relationship was restored; the balance sheet was not.
The technical assistance firm and the macro consultant: the work authorized today is diagnosis, data and pipeline preparation, not construction.
The contractor that sized reconstruction work against multilateral credit, and the treasury, which carries the spending on its own reserves while that credit does not arrive.
INDICADORwhether the IDB Group and Venezuela announce a country strategy, or a formal bilateral negotiation opens on the debt suspended in 2018 · resto de 2026; antes de eso, cualquier comunicado del Directorio Ejecutivo sobre elegibilidad
The power savings plan arrives with the country already rationing around 1,800 megawatts: in Aragua cuts run five and six hours a day since April, and in Zulia they concentrate before dawn.
The state power utility does not cover national demand and rations on the order of 1,800 megawatts. Against that backdrop, acting president Delcy Rodríguez ordered on August 2 the activation of the electricity and water savings plan ahead of an intense El Niño episode, and committed 4,800 megawatts of thermal generation for year-end with GE Vernova and Impsa. The request drew rejection and service protests: in Maracaibo cuts run from midnight to five in the morning and in Maracay reach six hours a day since April.
Presidencia de Venezuela — Delcy Rodríguez ↗Déficit racionado del orden de 1.800 MW · 44 kWh por barril producido · +165.000 bpd en el primer trimestre exigieron ~300 MW · 4.800 MW térmicos comprometidos para fin de añoThe system follows the water: Guri supplies close to 60% of the country's electricity and depends on the flow of the Caroní river, which El Niño reduces. But demand grew too, and oil is part of it: producing a barrel consumes on the order of 44 kilowatt-hours, and the 165,000 barrels per day added in the first quarter required some 300 megawatts. The July hydrocarbons regulation already concedes this by requiring joint ventures and private operators to self-generate and disconnect from the grid. With households on five- and six-hour cuts, the remaining adjustment falls on whoever stays connected.
The supplier of distributed generation and industrial fuel: the regulation turned self-generation into a requirement, not an option.
The process that cannot stop and cannot afford its own plant: smelting, refining, industrial cold chain.
INDICADORwhether rationing is formalized in a schedule with time blocks and states, and whether the cut shifts to industrial consumption · entre octubre y diciembre de 2026, el período que el propio anuncio señala como el más intenso
Seven senators from both parties signed a text on August 4 calling for elections and the release of political prisoners. It has no force of law and does not touch sanctions.
Senators Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, and Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat of New Hampshire, introduced on August 4 a resolution reaffirming U.S. support for holding elections in Venezuela. Five cosponsors join them, four Democrats and one Republican: Rick Scott, Dick Durbin, Tim Kaine, Adam Schiff and Jacky Rosen. The text calls for the release of all political prisoners and for political leaders, including María Corina Machado, to be able to return to the country and take part without risk.
Senado de EE.UU. — Cruz y Shaheen ↗Presentada el 4-ago · Cruz (R-Texas) y Shaheen (D-N.H.) · cinco copatrocinantes: cuatro demócratas y un republicano · resolución simple, sin fuerza de leyThe instrument sets the chamber's position without changing sanctions, licenses or recognition of the government: its value is signaling. That Republicans and Democrats sign it indicates the demand for an electoral calendar does not depend on who occupies the White House. The legislature keeps open a condition the executive settles administratively, license by license: the latest extension on the PDVSA 2020 bond runs to September 17.
The political risk adviser and the structurer who charges for exit clauses: the political condition remains open and that is paid for in the premium.
The long-cycle energy or infrastructure project, which needs a decade-long horizon and rests on authorizations renewed by the month.
INDICADORwhether the resolution clears the Foreign Relations Committee and reaches the floor, or whether any senator ties its content to a condition on OFAC licenses · septiembre de 2026, cuando el Senado retoma sesiones tras el receso de agosto
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn July 31 we set as indicator whether an international airline would publish a regular schedule to Maiquetía, or whether the mid-August window would slip.
It slipped. Maiquetía airport reopens today, August 5, for cargo aviation only, inbound and outbound. Commercial operations were set for August 24 under a temporary scheme of eight daily flights served from four tents, with capacity for about 400 passengers and a pilot run between the 17th and the 21st. The runway stays closed for works until August 22.