WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • ELECTRICIDAD

    The National Assembly plans to pass the electricity reform today; it requires each oil operator to secure its power with its own or contracted plants.

    Artículos: 119 · aprobados hasta el 95 · pendientes: 24 y 2 diferidos

    affects oil operators and joint ventures, and makers and operators of power plants

  • PETRÓLEO

    PDVSA and ExxonMobil signed a non-binding memorandum to evaluate exploration and production; the company did not disclose which areas it is assessing.

    Firma: lunes 9 · ExxonMobil hasta 2007: 41,67% de Cerro Negro

    affects PDVSA, ExxonMobil and oilfield service providers

  • GAS

    Trinidad expects to sign the Dragon and Loran-Manatee agreements with Venezuela before month-end; a technical team travels to Venezuela first.

    Meta: fin de noviembre · Loran: 6 de 7 yacimientos compartidos · Dragón: Estado ≥45% de los ingresos brutos

    affects Shell, BP, XRG, UCC and Trinidad's NGC

  • PENSIONES

    Delcy Rodríguez signed the instrument for the Ibero-American social security agreement; it still has to be deposited with the OISS to take effect.

    Suscrito: 2007 · ratificado: 2009 · depósito: pendiente · países que lo aplican: 13

    affects anyone who paid into the IVSS and into Spain, Colombia, Peru or another country in the agreement

01MARKET PULSE · HOYKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$92.57
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
897.54
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$79-85
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$13200.00B
PRODUCCIÓN
—
bpd
INFLACIÓN · OCT
6.2%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

ExxonMobil put in writing on Monday what it needs to invest: stable policies, clear regulations, strong investment protections and competitive returns. The first rule to follow is the electricity reform, which turns each field's power into a cost for its operator and leaves for later what sets that cost: Jorge Rodríguez speaks of private companies that will sell to industry "under a fair-tariff scheme," with no public formula. For Chevron, Repsol, Eni or NABEP, and for ExxonMobil if it reaches a contract, the plant or the power contract comes before the additional barrel, and it comes with Brent 18.4% below October 30. The first check is the Gazette: whether it gives operators a transition period, and who sets the price of power between private parties.

02THE FIGUREKey number in context
It is the top of a $31 billion to $32 billion range; for 2025, the firm estimates $14 billion to $15 billion
32000million dollars in oil revenue is what Datanálisis expects for Venezuela in 2026, more than double its estimate for 2025

Luis Vicente León, president of Datanálisis, said on Monday the 9th that Venezuela's oil revenue will reach $31 billion or $32 billion this year, versus $14 billion or $15 billion in 2025.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

León attributes the jump to higher international prices and to the country no longer selling at the discounts it used to, and expects to end the year at 1,250,000 barrels a day. The firm did not publish the price or discount it assumes, so the figure cannot be rebuilt. Nor does it measure what reaches the treasury: the Venezuelan government's oil income is deposited in U.S. Treasury accounts and is released when the State Department authorizes it. What can be checked is volume: OPEC publishes October output on Wednesday the 11th.

WHO GAINS

Oil companies with the right to sell their share of the crude, which are paid at the price of each cargo; the government's income, by contrast, comes in through U.S. Treasury accounts.

WHO LOSES

03RADAR VE4 señales · Proprietary analysis
Electricidad · Reforma legalURGENTEMIXTONotas del 5 y 7

The National Assembly plans to pass on Tuesday the 10th the reform of the Organic Law of the Electric System and Service; on Thursday the 5th it approved that oil operators secure their own power.

EVENTO

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, announced on Friday the 6th in Yaracuy that the reform of the Organic Law of the Electric System and Service will be passed on Tuesday. On Thursday the 5th, the plenary approved 70 articles at second reading and reached article 95 of 119; 24 remain, plus two deferred. What was approved requires oil operators to secure their power through self-generation or contracts with third parties, via single-purpose companies that may not sell electricity to other users.

Asamblea Nacional ↗Artículos: 119 · aprobados: hasta el 95 · pendientes: 24 y 2 diferidos · sanción prevista: martes 10 · ley ganadera: jueves 12
VE Análisis

Each field's power becomes a cost for its operator: its own plant, or a contract with a private company created solely for that supply, licensed by the ministry. Connecting to the grid will require approval from the Superintendency, and the system's surplus will go first to the oil industry's critical loads. The Assembly's notes on the 95 approved articles do not describe the tariff formula.

QUIÉN GANA

Makers and operators of power plants that sign dedicated contracts with a field, and operators with the cash to generate their own.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Operators with less cash, including joint ventures where PDVSA puts up its share: the power is paid for before the additional barrel.

INDICADORPassage of the 24 pending articles and publication in the Official Gazette, with whatever deadline it gives operators to comply. · Martes 10 de noviembre de 2026, sesión plenaria de la Asamblea Nacional; después, la promulgación por la presidenta encargada.

Petróleo · Nuevos sociosURGENTEPOSITIVOMemorando PDVSA–ExxonMobil, 9

PDVSA and ExxonMobil signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding in Caracas on Monday the 9th to evaluate exploration and production; the company did not disclose which areas it is assessing.

EVENTO

Acting president Delcy Rodríguez led the signing of the PDVSA–ExxonMobil memorandum in Caracas on Monday the 9th to evaluate exploration and production opportunities, with Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Upstream, and John Barrett, the U.S. chargé d'affaires. Rodríguez said it covers mature and new fields with "billions of barrels" of reserves. ExxonMobil called it a meaningful first step and warned that any future investment would require stable policies, clear regulations, strong investment protections and competitive returns.

Presidencia de Venezuela — vía AVN ↗Firma: lunes 9, Caracas · carácter: no vinculante · áreas: no reveladas · ExxonMobil hasta 2007: 41,67% de Cerro Negro y 50% de La Ceiba
VE Análisis

The memorandum assigns no areas and commits no investment: to produce, ExxonMobil needs a definitive contract, either a joint venture with PDVSA or a productive participation contract. It is the company from which Venezuela took its 41.67% of Cerro Negro, now Petromonagas, and 50% of La Ceiba in 2007; in May, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips were still seeking a way to collect the billions the country owes them.

QUIÉN GANA

PDVSA, which adds ExxonMobil as a possible partner for mature and new fields, and oilfield service providers if the memorandum becomes a contract.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The treasury, if the contract follows the terms ExxonMobil is asking for: competitive returns and investment protection are paid for with lower royalties or a smaller state share.

INDICADORA definitive contract with an assigned area, either a joint venture or a productive participation contract, and its mention in ExxonMobil's SEC filings. · Sin plazo público en el memorando; primer contraste, el informe anual 10-K de ExxonMobil, con plazo legal hasta el 1 de marzo de 2027.

Pensiones · Seguridad socialURGENTEPOSITIVOInstrumento firmado, 8

Delcy Rodríguez signed in Caracas the instrument of ratification of the Ibero-American Multilateral Social Security Agreement, announced on Sunday the 8th; it still has to be deposited and the Implementing Agreement signed.

EVENTO

Acting president Delcy Rodríguez formalized the ratification of the Ibero-American Multilateral Social Security Agreement with an instrument signed in Caracas and announced on Sunday the 8th, during the 30th Ibero-American Summit. Venezuela signed the agreement on November 10, 2007, in Santiago, Chile. In the Ibero-American Social Security Organization's February status table, Venezuela appears with a ratification dated February 16, 2009, with no deposit of the instrument and no Implementing Agreement signed.

Presidencia de Venezuela — vía Globovisión ↗Suscrito: 10-nov-2007 · ratificado: 16-feb-2009 (OISS) · depósito: pendiente · países que lo aplican: 13 · pensionados en el exterior: ~30.000 (Silva)
VE Análisis

The agreement coordinates pensions among the countries that apply it, 13 today according to the OISS, including Spain, Portugal, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Argentina. For Venezuela it takes effect once it deposits the instrument with the OISS and signs the Implementing Agreement; Sunday's announcement sets no date for either step. Edgar Silva, coordinator of a pensioners' committee, estimates about 30,000 Venezuelan pensioners abroad and says the deposit is still pending.

QUIÉN GANA

Anyone who paid into Venezuela's IVSS and into one of the 13 countries that apply the agreement, such as Spain, Colombia or Peru, once the agreement takes effect for Venezuela.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The IVSS, which will have to pay its share of those pensions to beneficiaries abroad; according to Silva, the state already owes them back payments.

INDICADORRegistration of the Venezuelan instrument's deposit with the OISS and the signing of the Implementing Agreement. · Desde el 8 de noviembre de 2026; la OISS lo refleja en su cuadro de estado de situación del convenio.

Gas · Costa afueraCONTEXTOMIXTORoodal Moonilal, 6

Trinidad and Tobago's energy minister, Roodal Moonilal, said on Friday the 6th that his government expects to complete the agreements with Venezuela on Dragon and Loran-Manatee before the end of November.

EVENTO

Roodal Moonilal, Trinidad and Tobago's energy minister, said on Friday the 6th that the U.S. licenses for Dragon and Loran are secured. According to the minister, a technical team must first travel to Venezuela to settle outstanding provisions and terms; then the energy ministers of both countries would meet to sign. His government expects to complete the process before the end of November. For Loran, a metering agreement is under way and must be completed before the license expires.

Ministerio de Energía de Trinidad y Tobago — vía CNC3 ↗Meta de Trinidad: fin de noviembre · Loran: 6 de 7 yacimientos compartidos · fase I: Shell · fase 2: BP, XRG y UCC, un tercio cada una · Dragón: Estado ≥45% de los ingresos brutos
VE Análisis

The agreements govern gas that crosses the border: six of Loran's seven reservoirs are shared with Trinidad. Shell holds phase I; since August 13, phase 2 has been split in thirds among BP, the operator, XRG, of the UAE's ADNOC, and Qatar's UCC Holding, led by brothers Moutaz and Ramez Al-Khayyat, who are helping finance and build the resort of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, in Albania. The tie is documented; any weight it had in the August license is not.

QUIÉN GANA

Shell, on both sides of Loran-Manatee and in Dragon, and the three phase 2 partners, whose gas depends on those agreements.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The treasury, for as long as nothing is signed: Dragon pays neither royalty nor the 45% minimum without gas in production.

INDICADORThe Trinidadian technical team's visit and the signing by both energy ministers, including the Loran metering agreement. · Antes del 30 de noviembre de 2026, según la meta del Gobierno de Trinidad y Tobago.

VE Pulse · Core indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.