- MACRO
The IMF raised its estimate of Venezuela's 2025 growth to 9% and projects 5% for 2026, with higher inflation and an external deficit it did not see in April.
PIB 2025: 9% (abril: 1,5%) · inflación promedio 2026: 467,9% · cuenta corriente 2026: −1% del PIB
affects creditors of the Republic and PDVSA, and anyone forecasting bolívar revenue
- DEUDA
The Third Circuit's deadline for the US government to give its views on the appeal over the sale of Citgo's parent, which Venezuela asked to freeze for six months, expires today at 12:00 ET.
Oferta de Amber: US$5.900 M · EBITDA 2026 que proyecta Citgo: US$5.800 M · alegatos orales: 21-oct
affects creditors holding Delaware judgments, Amber and holders of the PDVSA 2020 bond
- PETRÓLEO
Luis Abinader and Delcy Rodríguez tasked Refidomsa and PDVSA with negotiating direct purchases of asphalt and liquefied petroleum gas for the Dominican Republic.
Productos: asfalto AC-30 y GLP · volúmenes y precios: sin anunciar · consulado dominicano en Venezuela: en apertura
affects PDVSA, Refidomsa and fuel suppliers to the Dominican market
The IMF hands Caracas the recovery argument and, in the same tables, takes away the cash argument. Growth of 9% in 2025 backs the premise of the request Caracas filed on October 1 to freeze the Citgo sale: that its economy is already recovering. But the Fund no longer projects an external surplus: for 2026 it calculates a current account deficit of 1% of GDP, where in April it saw a positive 7.1%. For a creditor measuring how much the country can pay in dollars, that second line weighs more than the first. Washington has until noon to weigh in on the pause Venezuela seeks; on Wednesday, Calixto Ortega and Nigel Chalk discuss Venezuela in Bangkok.
Change in the central bank's reference exchange rate between the January 5 and October 13, 2026 value dates.
The central bank's reference rate with value date October 13 is 876.80 bolívares per dollar; the first of the year, with value date January 5, was 304.68. The official dollar costs almost three times as much, and the bolívar has lost 65.3% of its value against it. The pace has been uneven: the dollar rose 34.5% in the third quarter and 1.9% so far in October. Consumer prices, for their part, rose 8.4% in September alone, according to the central bank.
In its October report the IMF estimates that Venezuela's economy grew 9% in 2025, against the 1.5% it calculated in April, and projects 5% for 2026 and 7% for 2027.
The IMF published its World Economic Outlook on the night of Monday, October 12, New York time, from its annual meetings in Bangkok, with a new series for Venezuela. It estimates that real GDP grew 9% in 2025; in April it calculated 1.5%. For 2026 it projects 5%, and for 2027, 7%. The revision reaches back in time: the Fund now sees a deeper fall between 2018 and 2020 and stronger growth since 2022, a year to which it assigns 15.1%.
FMI ↗PIB real 2025: 9% (abril: 1,5%) · 2026: 5% (4%) · 2027: 7% (6%) · inflación promedio 2026: 467,9% (387,4%) · cuenta corriente 2026: −1% del PIB (+7,1%)Under the new series, the economy grew 44% between 2022 and 2025, more than double the 20% the Fund calculated in April. In April, the Fund warned that most of its 2018-2025 figures were staff estimates; the October series matches the central bank's, year by year. The same tables raise average 2026 inflation from 387.4% to 467.9%.
The Venezuelan government before its creditors: the IMF credits it with a faster-growing economy, with nominal GDP projected at $124.2 billion for 2026.
Creditors counting on external surpluses to get paid: the IMF no longer sees a current account surplus in 2026 or 2027, but deficits of 1% and 3.4% of GDP, where in April it projected surpluses of 7.1% and 4.8%.
INDICADORWhat Calixto Ortega, vice president for the economy, and Nigel Chalk, the IMF's Western Hemisphere director, say at the "Venezuela Redux" panel of the annual meetings. · Miércoles 14 de octubre de 2026, 04:00 ET, en Bangkok.
Venezuela asked the Third Circuit to pause for six months its appeal against the sale of PDV Holding, Citgo's parent. The US government has until 12:00 ET today to weigh in.
On October 1 Venezuela asked the Third Circuit Court of Appeals to suspend for six months its appeal against the court-ordered sale of PDV Holding, Citgo's parent, to Amber Energy while it restructures its debt. On October 5 the court invited the US government for the third time to give its views, with a deadline of 12:00 ET today; the December and January invitations went unanswered. Amber, Crystallex and ConocoPhillips oppose the pause; Gold Reserve supports it if Washington does too.
Tercer Circuito — vía Gold Reserve ↗Oferta de Amber: US$5.900 M · EBITDA 2026 proyectado por Citgo: US$5.800 M · caja prevista al cierre de 2026: US$5.700 M · financiamiento de Amber: vence en abril de 2027 · alegatos: 21-octVenezuela argues that Citgo is worth far more than when it was awarded: the refiner itself projects EBITDA of $5.8 billion for 2026, close to Amber's $5.9 billion bid. The sale approved in Delaware is not stayed and can close seven days after OFAC issues the license. Amber warns that its financing expires in April 2027, so a six-month pause leaves the deal right at the edge of that deadline.
Venezuela, if the court grants the pause: it keeps PDV Holding while it builds the restructuring, with a Citgo that expects to end 2026 with $5.7 billion in cash.
Amber Energy and the creditors counting on the auction to get paid, such as Crystallex, holder of a $1.2 billion judgment since 2017: according to Amber, the delay could stop the sale even if Venezuela does not win the appeal.
INDICADORThe US government's response to the Third Circuit: a filing of up to seven pages or written notice that it will not take part. · Martes 13 de octubre de 2026, 12:00 ET; alegatos orales el 21 de octubre.
Luis Abinader and Delcy Rodríguez agreed in Rome on Monday the 12th that Refidomsa, the Dominican state refiner, and PDVSA will discuss direct purchases of AC-30 asphalt and liquefied petroleum gas.
Dominican President Luis Abinader and acting president Delcy Rodríguez met on Monday, October 12, at FAO headquarters in Rome. According to the Dominican presidency, they discussed "the possibility of establishing direct purchases of petroleum derivatives," specifically AC-30 asphalt and liquefied petroleum gas, with the details to be handled by Refidomsa and PDVSA. Abinader reported the opening of the Dominican consulate in Venezuela, and Rodríguez announced that the Venezuelan consulate in Santo Domingo will soon have a consul. No volumes, prices or timelines were announced.
Presidencia de la República Dominicana ↗Productos: asfalto AC-30 y GLP · volúmenes y precios: sin anunciar · 49% de Refidomsa vendido por PDV Caribe: 2021, €74 M · EE.UU. en los hidrocarburos que importa RD: >80% (enero-septiembre de 2025)PDVSA left Refidomsa in 2021, when its subsidiary PDV Caribe sold its 49% stake in the refinery to the Dominican state for €74 million, a deal Santo Domingo attributed to sanctions. It now returns as a potential supplier. To have OFAC's safe harbor, a non-US buyer such as Refidomsa must pay PDVSA into the US Treasury custody accounts, among other conditions.
PDVSA: it opens a direct sales channel for two products to the Dominican state refiner, in which it was a partner until 2021.
US suppliers to the Dominican market, if the purchases materialize: the United States accounted for more than 80% of the value of the hydrocarbons the Dominican Republic imported between January and September 2025, according to its Ministry of Energy and Mines.
INDICADORA first contract between Refidomsa and PDVSA with volume, price and payment terms. · Sin fecha anunciada; primer corte de seguimiento el 13 de noviembre de 2026.