WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • REFINACIÓN

    A ruptured gas line feeding the boilers caused a fire at Cardón, and PDVSA carried out an emergency shutdown of its plants.

    Cardón: 310.000 b/d de capacidad · CRP: ~257.000 b/d, ~27% (25-sep) · heridos: ninguno · rearranque: sin fecha

    affects PDVSA, service stations and anyone who relies on diesel and gasoline

  • DERECHOS HUMANOS

    The UN Human Rights Council renewed until 2028 the mission investigating human rights violations in Venezuela.

    25 a favor · 5 en contra · 17 abstenciones · en 2024: 23 a favor

    affects banks and funds that screen Venezuelan counterparties, and the government

  • ALUMINIO

    The first Venalum aluminum shipped to the United States in eight years was unloaded in Louisiana, with the Interior Secretary on hand.

    15.000 toneladas · primer envío a EE.UU. en ocho años · compradores: Heeney Capital y Mercuria

    affects CVG Venalum, metals traders and industry in Guayana

01MARKET PULSE · HOYKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$101.94
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
873.87
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$88-94
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$12.89B
PRODUCCIÓN · AUG
1.201M
bpd
INFLACIÓN · AUG
8.9%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

The fire reached a complex that was already running at just over a quarter of its capacity. At the end of September, the Paraguaná Refining Center, which combines Cardón and Amuay, was processing about 257,000 barrels a day, and at Cardón one crude unit and the catalytic cracker remained idle for lack of feedstock. PDVSA's refineries, taken together, must produce at least 250,000 barrels a day of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and LPG for domestic consumption. The phase to watch is the restart, which PDVSA makes conditional on assessing whether it is safe. On April 14 a blackout shut Cardón down, and on April 29, while it was starting back up, a fire hit the cracker. The size of the blow will come from the restart date, what the investigation committee finds and whether Amuay raises its runs.

02THE FIGUREKey number in context
A year earlier it was 0.96 million: 23% more
1.18million barrels a day of crude: Venezuela's third-quarter output, as estimated by the US Energy Information Administration

Venezuela's crude oil production between July and September, as estimated by the US Energy Information Administration in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that Venezuela produced 1.18 million barrels a day of crude between July and September, up from 1.11 million in the second quarter and 0.96 million a year earlier. It is the second consecutive quarterly increase. On the same Tuesday the 6th, ConocoPhillips' chief economist, Helen Currie, told a forum at Rice University that the recovery will take "at least a decade" and tens of billions of dollars. In her view, the clock does not start until there is a stable, transparent fiscal regime and a durable legal system. The EIA's November report will show whether the third-quarter pace holds.

IMPLICACIÓN POSITIVA

IMPLICACIÓN NEGATIVA

03RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Refinación · CombustiblesURGENTENEGATIVOComunicado sobre el incendio en Cardón, 6

PDVSA attributed Tuesday's fire at Cardón to a ruptured gas line feeding the boilers and carried out an emergency shutdown of its plants. No one was injured; the restart has no date.

EVENTO

At 3:25 p.m. ET on Tuesday, October 6, a natural gas line feeding the boilers of the Cardón refinery in Falcón ruptured, and the ensuing fire was quickly brought under control, with no injuries or "major damage," according to PDVSA. The company carried out an emergency shutdown of the refinery's plants "while conditions for a safe restart are assessed" and set up an investigation committee. Falcón's Citizen Security Secretariat had placed the fire at the HDT-2 hydrotreater and the lubricants plant.

PDVSA — comunicado vía x.com ↗Cardón: 310.000 b/d de capacidad · CRP: ~257.000 b/d, ~27% (25-sep) · fuera de servicio antes del incendio: una destiladora y el craqueador catalítico · heridos: ninguno · rearranque: sin fecha
VE Análisis

Boilers generate the steam that process units use, and PDVSA shut down the plants at Cardón, which has capacity for 310,000 barrels a day. The shutdown also takes offline the gasoline units that were still running: in mid-September the naphtha reformer and three crude units were operating, before one of them and the catalytic cracker stopped. While it lasts, whatever Cardón does not produce will come from inventories, Amuay, other refineries or imports.

QUIÉN GANA

Whoever sells Venezuela imported fuels and blending components, such as US naphtha for high-octane gasoline, if the restart drags on.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Diesel and gasoline consumers if the shutdown outlasts what inventories cover, starting with Zulia, where truckers and producers reported dispatch failures in September.

INDICADORCardón's restart date and the causes determined by PDVSA's investigation committee. · Sin fecha oficial; primer corte de seguimiento el 9 de octubre.

Riesgo institucional · Derechos humanosURGENTEMIXTORenovación de la misión sobre Venezuela, 6

With 25 votes in favor, 5 against and 17 abstentions, the UN Human Rights Council extended on Tuesday the 6th, for two years, the fact-finding mission on Venezuela. The government asked for it to be closed.

EVENTO

In Geneva on Tuesday, October 6, the UN Human Rights Council renewed the mandate of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela and the High Commissioner's Office monitoring, with reports due in 2027 and 2028. The resolution, tabled by Chile on behalf of a group of seven countries in the Americas, received 25 votes in favor; China, Cuba, Vietnam, Egypt and Burundi voted against. The Venezuelan delegation said "the time has come to move beyond scrutiny mechanisms established without the consent of the State concerned."

Consejo de Derechos Humanos de la ONU — vía Infobae (EFE) ↗Votos: 25 a favor · 5 en contra · 17 abstenciones · en 2024: 23 · 6 · 18 · informes: 2027 y 2028 · presentó: Chile, por siete países americanos
VE Análisis

The mission gathers information, establishes responsibilities and publishes its reports. A bank or a fund can consult them when screening the officials and entities it deals with. The resolution acknowledges that the government resumed cooperation with the High Commissioner's Office. At the same time, it calls for the "immediate and unconditional" release of those arbitrarily detained and for respect for freedom of expression, association and assembly.

QUIÉN GANA

Compliance teams at banks and funds with exposure to Venezuela: for two more years they keep an independent record that establishes responsibilities by name.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The government of acting president Delcy Rodríguez, which asked for the mission to be closed: it will remain under a mechanism it did not consent to, with reports in 2027 and 2028.

INDICADORThe government's response to the mission: whether it grants access to the country or keeps cooperating only with the High Commissioner's Office. · Primer informe de la misión renovada ante el Consejo, en 2027; antes, cualquier anuncio del Gobierno sobre el acceso.

Minería · AluminioURGENTEMIXTOLlegada del aluminio de Venalum a Avondale

Venalum's first aluminum shipment to the US in eight years, 15,000 tons, was unloaded in Louisiana on Monday the 5th with the Interior Secretary on hand. Neither the price nor where the payment goes is known.

EVENTO

CVG Venalum's first shipment of primary aluminum to the United States in eight years, 15,000 tons, was unloaded on Monday, October 5, at the Port of Avondale, Louisiana, with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise in attendance. The cargo sailed on September 18 under an offtake agreement between Heeney Capital, Mercuria and the Venezuelan government. Heeney expects more shipments "in the coming months" and, longer term, to invest in Venezuelan industrial capacity.

Heeney Capital — vía PR Newswire ↗Envío: 15.000 t de aluminio primario · origen: CVG Venalum · compradores: Heeney Capital y Mercuria · zarpe: 18-sep · descarga: 5-oct, Avondale (Luisiana) · precio y destino del pago: no constan
VE Análisis

The metal leaves under an offtake agreement between Heeney Capital, the trader Mercuria and the Venezuelan government, part of a White House-backed initiative for mining and energy, according to Heeney. The scheme starts by taking the output: investing in Venezuelan industrial capacity remains a longer-term goal. Neither the October 5 release nor the September 21 one gives the price, the committed volume or the account that receives Venalum's payment.

QUIÉN GANA

Heeney Capital and Mercuria, which take Venalum's aluminum under contract and had the US government visibly at their side at the unloading.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Anyone expecting the corridor to fund the plant's recovery: Heeney places that investment in the longer term, with no amount or date.

INDICADORVenalum's second shipment to the US: volume, date and whether it comes with an investment announcement for the plant. · Heeney lo prevé «en los próximos meses»; primer corte de seguimiento el 30 de noviembre.

VE Pulse · Core indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.