- PETRÓLEO
Exports fell 9% in September, and the United States took 629,000 of the 1.08 million barrels a day.
Total: 1,08 M b/d (1,19 en agosto) · Europa: 86.000 (260.000) · EE.UU. importó 701.000 b/d en julio, máximo desde 2017
affects PDVSA, its partners and Gulf Coast refiners
- RIESGO
Democrats on five House committees ask for the text of the NABEP deal by October 14.
6 documentos · 17 preguntas · 35% de la matriz de NABEP · concesiones de 100 años en 17 campos
affects companies weighing a partnership with NABEP or competing for the same fields
- FINANZAS
The IMF confirms Venezuela has not asked for a program or financing; CAF ties its lending to resolving arrears.
FMI: 5 áreas de asistencia técnica · oficina sin fecha · CAF: US$5.000 M en 5 años para la red eléctrica
affects energy and gas projects that were counting on multilateral credit
Venezuela's financing still comes from the barrel, and in September less of it came. The IMF does not lend because nobody has asked, and CAF will not while arrears with multilateral lenders remain, so the power-grid repair and the Colombia gas pipeline wait on private capital or oil revenue. That oil was exported 9% less and with more weight on a single buyer, the United States, which in July imported the most since 2017. The contract promising the most barrels, NABEP's, still has no public text. The test comes on two dates: October shipments, and the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, October 12 to 18.
Venezuela exported 1.08 million barrels a day of oil in September, 9% less than in August. Shipments to the United States rose to 629,000 while those to Europe fell to 86,000.
Venezuela's oil exports fell almost 9% in September, to 1.08 million barrels a day from 1.19 million in August, according to vessel-tracking data published on Thursday, October 1. Trading houses including Vitol and Trafigura pressed PDVSA for discounts to offset higher freight. The United States received 629,000 barrels a day, against 553,000 in August; India fell to 253,000 and Europe to 86,000 from 260,000. Imports of naphtha and other refined products fell to 99,000 barrels a day.
Reuters vía Baird Maritime ↗Exportaciones: 1,08 M b/d (1,19 en agosto) · EE.UU. 629.000 (553.000) · India 253.000 (297.000) · Europa 86.000 (260.000) · comercializadoras 637.000 (597.000) · Chevron 283.000The drop did not come from the trading houses, which shipped 637,000 barrels a day against 597,000 in August, nor from Chevron, steady at 283,000: it came from the rest of the cargoes, which went from some 300,000 to some 160,000 a day. Meanwhile Venezuelan crude weighs more in US refineries: in July the United States imported 701,000 barrels a day, the most since May 2017.
Gulf Coast refiners set up for heavy crude: Valero took 282,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in July, 40% of what the United States imported.
PDVSA: it exported some 110,000 barrels a day less than in August, and the trading houses, which move almost six of every ten, keep pressing for bigger discounts to cover freight.
INDICADOROctober exports, and whether they return above 1.1 million barrels a day. · Primeros días de noviembre de 2026, con los datos de embarques de octubre.
The top Democrats on five House committees asked Rubio and Hegseth for the text of the NABEP deal and its 100-year concessions, with an October 14 deadline.
Gregory Meeks, Robert Garcia, Jared Huffman and Frank Pallone, the top Democrats on Foreign Affairs, Oversight, Natural Resources and Energy and Commerce, and Joaquin Castro, of the Western Hemisphere subcommittee, asked Secretaries Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth for six documents and answers to 17 questions by October 14. Among them, the agreement that gives the United States 35% of NABEP's parent company and the one covering 100-year concessions on 17 fields.
Comité de Asuntos Exteriores de la Cámara (minoría) ↗Plazo: 14-oct · 6 documentos y 17 preguntas · 5 legisladores de la minoría · acuerdo: 35% de la matriz de NABEP, veto sobre su directorio · 17 campos, concesiones de 100 años · carta del 30-sepThe signatories are in the minority: the letter asks but cannot compel an answer. On September 15 the Republican majority blocked a motion by Joaquin Castro to subpoena documents on NABEP. What the letter puts on record is the questions: whether the armed forces will protect NABEP assets and what financial exposure taxpayers would bear, and it notes that at the September 14 briefing officials did not hand over the texts.
Anyone weighing a partnership with NABEP, or competing with it for the same fields, if the text is published: they would know the reach of the US veto over its board and of the production purchase rights.
NABEP, for as long as the text stays unpublished: the deal promising the most barrels in Venezuela has no public document setting out its terms.
INDICADORRubio's and Hegseth's response, and publication of the text of the NABEP deal. · 14 de octubre de 2026, plazo de la carta.
The IMF said on Thursday the 1st that Venezuela has not requested a program or financing and that its local office still has no date. CAF made new loans conditional on resolving arrears with multilateral lenders.
Julie Kozack, the IMF's spokeswoman, said on Thursday the 1st that the Venezuelan authorities have not requested a program or financing from the Fund, and that the Fund's local presence is still under discussion: "The timing and modalities are still being discussed." A day earlier, at the Caracas oil summit, CAF's Sandra Conde said that because of the country's debt to multilateral lenders, "that situation of non-payment would first have to be resolved" before room for financing opens up.
FMI · CAF — vía EFE (Infobae) ↗FMI: sin programa ni financiamiento solicitado · 5 áreas de cooperación técnica · oficina: «calendario y modalidades» en discusión · CAF: US$5.000 M en 5 años para el sistema eléctricoThe Fund lends only if the authorities ask, and they have not: its work is limited to technical assistance on statistics, monetary, exchange and treasury operations, and tax administration. The office the managing director placed in the first half of 2027 was left, in the spokeswoman's words, with no date. CAF estimates $5 billion over five years just to rehabilitate and automate the power grid, and will not reopen lending while arrears persist.
The central bank and the tax administration, which receive advice on monetary, exchange and treasury operations and on revenue collection.
Projects that were counting on multilateral credit, such as the gas pipeline repair or the power grid: CAF will not reopen lending until the arrears are resolved.
INDICADORA Venezuelan agreement on its arrears with multilateral lenders, or a formal request for IMF financing. · Reuniones anuales del FMI y el Banco Mundial, del 12 al 18 de octubre en Bangkok.
Average age of the vehicle fleet on the road, some 3.5 million vehicles, according to the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (Cavenez).
Between January and August 36,855 new vehicles were sold, 70% more than in the same stretch of 2025 and almost as many as in all of that year. The industry body credits the gradual reopening of credit with domestic banks and expects to top 50,000 in 2026. Even so, it estimates that renewing a fleet averaging 22 years of age takes between 100,000 and 120,000 units a year: the market is selling about half that pace. September sales will show whether the credit-driven acceleration holds.
The coming week starts abroad and ends in Caracas. On Sunday the 4th OPEC+ reviews November supply, with Venezuela on the monitoring committee. On Monday the 5th, counted in calendar days, the ninety extendable days the hydrocarbons regulation gave the ministry to publish its technical standards run out. On Thursday the 8th a New York judge reviews Cilia Flores' bail, and the same day Fedecámaras' annual assembly opens, with government officials among the speakers. On Friday the 9th applications close for the committee that shortlists Supreme Court justices.
- →Domingo 4 de octubre — Meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries and of the ministerial monitoring committee, of which Venezuela is a member — the group is expected to hold its November targets; any change passes through to Brent, the benchmark against which Venezuelan crude is traded
- →Lunes 5 de octubre, si se cuentan días corridos — The extendable deadline in the hydrocarbons regulation to publish its technical standards expires — they include the standards setting how oil companies meet the obligation to generate or contract their own power
- →Jueves 8 de octubre, 10:30 — Cilia Flores' bail hearing before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, in New York — it is the first hearing in the case after Friday the 2nd, the prosecution's last day to answer the immunity motions
- →Jueves 8 y viernes 9 de octubre — Fedecámaras' annual assembly, at the Eurobuilding in Caracas — government officials in charge of taxes, oil, labor, finance and reconstruction have confirmed they will speak
- →Viernes 9 de octubre — Applications close for the twelve civil-society seats on the judicial nominations committee — the eleven-deputy commission will present the list of those selected to the plenary on Thursday the 15th
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn September 25 we set a watch on whether the Termozulia units returned to generation before January 2027, the date the sectoral vice president for Public Works and Services had given.
Termozulia's TZ07 unit, 150 megawatts, began its slow spin on Wednesday night, the 30th, and the same sectoral vice president, Juan José Ramírez, said it will be synchronized to the grid within 72 hours. It is one of the seven Zulia units the ministry's plan adds in the fourth quarter. Planta Centro's unit 6, 600 megawatts, still had no announced start by the close of Thursday the 1st. On Wednesday night, the 30th, at least 20 protests over power cuts were reported in seven states.