- ENERGÍA
The price of Venezuelan crude contributed far more in August than all the volume added.
Merey en US$76,82 · +9,46 sobre julio · +1.000 barriles diarios por comunicación directa
affects anyone with the 1.3 million barrel December target inside their model
- SECTORES
The country's entry door is being measured again: nine thousand two hundred containers in a month.
9.200 contenedores nacionalizados en La Guaira · alza superior al 34% · 49% y 46% de las operaciones aéreas
affects importers with stranded cargo and anyone moving staff or goods
- MACRO
The central bank set Friday's rate and September's adjustment already reaches 4.7%.
Bs 832,49 con fecha valor del viernes · Bs 794,99 al cierre de agosto · +37,50 en once días
affects retailers replacing imported inventory and households earning in bolivars
OPEC published Venezuela's two revenue levers in the same report on Thursday. Merey gained 9.46 dollars a barrel in August and the output PDVSA reports rose by a thousand barrels daily: on the month's volume, price added some 11.4 million dollars a day and volume added 76,820. What decides the quarter is therefore set outside the country, and the international benchmark has already climbed thirteen dollars more across this week's five sessions. At home the two variables an importer does control are moving: Seniat, the customs and tax administration, counted 9,200 containers cleared in a month and the central bank set Friday's rate 4.7% above August's close.
OPEC's monthly report carries in the same table a price jump of nearly ten dollars a barrel and an output rise that, on the official measurement, does not reach four digits.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries published its monthly report on Thursday, September 10. Merey, Venezuela's benchmark crude and the heaviest in the organization's basket, averaged 76.82 dollars a barrel in August, 9.46 above July. By the country's own direct communication, August output was 1,201,000 barrels a day against 1,200,000 in July. The organization's secondary sources, which do not take the government's figure, calculated 1,145,000 for August against 1,122,000 in July.
Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo — vía El Informador ↗Merey en US$76,82 en agosto · +9,46 sobre julio · 1.201.000 barriles diarios por comunicación directa · 1.145.000 por fuentes secundarias · 56.000 de brechaPrice and volume are measured in the same unit, and that shows which one rules. On August's 1,201,000 barrels, the extra 9.46 dollars are worth some 11.4 million dollars a day; the extra thousand barrels, sold at the month's price, are worth 76,820. On the secondary-source series volume weighs more, because it adds 23,000 barrels rather than a thousand, and there lies the underlying problem: between the two measurements of the same month lie 56,000 barrels a day. Against that, PDVSA set the end of 2026 at 1.3 million on Tuesday.
The treasury, paid on fiscalized barrels: price delivers without requiring a new well.
Anyone with the December target in their model: some 99,000 barrels a day are missing across four months.
INDICADORwhether October's monthly report shows a gain of at least 25,000 barrels a day, and whether the gap between direct communication and secondary sources narrows · el informe mensual del mercado petrolero se publica alrededor del día 12 de cada mes; el de agosto salió el 10 de septiembre
The superintendent of Seniat, the customs and tax administration, reported on Wednesday 9,200 containers cleared at La Guaira over the past month, up more than 34%.
Roman Maniglia, superintendent of the National Integrated Customs and Tax Administration Service, reported on Wednesday, September 9 that 9,200 containers were cleared at the port of La Guaira over the past month, more than 34% up in customs throughput; he did not specify the comparison period. He announced that La Guaira and Puerto Cabello will be the pilot programs for customs modernization. At Maiquetia airport, the transport minister put recovery on Thursday at 49% of domestic operations and 46% of international ones.
Seniat — vía Últimas Noticias ↗9.200 contenedores nacionalizados en un mes en La Guaira · alza superior al 34% en gestión aduanera · 49% de las operaciones aéreas nacionales y 46% de las internacionales · 129 frecuencias semanalesBoth terminals are the same door, and they are being measured again since the June 24 quakes. By sea, 9,200 containers a month come in; by air, 129 weekly frequencies go out to eleven countries, with nineteen airlines and 36,906 passengers in September's first week, 24% more than a year earlier. The limit is set by provisional infrastructure, not by demand. The 34% customs rise arrives with no stated comparison period, so it reports direction rather than magnitude.
The importer with stranded cargo and the La Guaira customs broker: the bottleneck is loosening.
Anyone needing schedule certainty: with no stated comparison period, that 34% cannot set a clearance calendar.
INDICADORwhether Seniat publishes the monthly series of cleared containers with a stated comparison period, and whether air frequency recovery passes 70% before October ends · el puerto y el aeropuerto retomaron operaciones el 1 de septiembre y ambos organismos informan por sus canales oficiales
The central bank set 832.49 bolivars per dollar for Friday, September 11, some 37.50 above the reference August closed at.
The Central Bank of Venezuela set 832.49 bolivars per dollar for Friday, September 11's value date. August closed with the reference at 794.99, so the cumulative adjustment over eleven days reaches 37.50 bolivars, or 4.7%. The month's daily series passed through 813.74 on Monday the 7th, 820.10 on Wednesday the 9th and 827.74 on Thursday the 10th. August's price index, published by the same institution on September 4, had printed 8.9% monthly.
Banco Central de Venezuela ↗Bs 832,49 con fecha valor del 11-sep · Bs 794,99 al cierre de agosto · +37,50 bolívares y +4,7% en once días · inflación de agosto en 8,9%The official rate is the replacement cost of everything that comes through the port and the yardstick for repricing the shelf. A 4.7% rise in eleven days reaches imported goods first and the bolivar price after, even if the hard-currency price does not move. For a retailer billing in local money with inventory bought in dollars, margin absorbs the difference until it reprices; for a wage paid in bolivars, the loss is immediate and waits for no repricing.
Whoever bills in hard currency and pays costs in bolivars: the same revenue covers more payroll each week.
The retailer that prices with a lag and the household earning in local currency.
INDICADORwhether September's price index from the central bank returns to single digits, and whether the first eleven days' currency pace holds through the month's second half · el banco central publicó el índice de agosto el 4 de septiembre; el de septiembre se conocerá a comienzos de octubre
This is the international benchmark Venezuelan crude is traded against, and it rose 13.16 dollars from last Friday, when it stood at 95.83. The August average the organization has just published sits well below this level, so September points to a materially higher monthly average without a single extra barrel. On August's daily volume, each extra dollar is worth about 1.2 million a day. The escalation in the Strait of Hormuz lifted it and can undo it just as fast: this is revenue arriving with no contract signed and no guarantee it stays.
Next week brings two cheap checks and one expensive one. The cheap ones are the weekly U.S. refining series, which on Wednesday will say whether the Gulf Coast ceiling finally eases, and the La Guaira customs thread, which becomes data the day the agency publishes its series with a comparison period. The expensive one is the production-pace thread: some 99,000 barrels a day are missing for the December target and the next monthly report does not arrive until mid-October, leaving four weeks with no official figure to set against the announcements. With this month's signatures dated from 2027 onward, the quarter turns on the quote before it turns on the drill.
- →Miércoles 16 de septiembre — Weekly Gulf Coast refinery utilization series — it printed 98.3% for the week to September 4 and is the physical ceiling of Venezuelan heavy crude's natural destination
- →Horizonte abierto — Reopening of Maiquetia's permanent terminal — the step above 49% of domestic operations depends on it and no date has been announced
- →Horizonte abierto — ▸ Open thread · monthly pace required for the December target — some 99,000 barrels a day are missing across four months and August contributed a thousand
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn September 7 we set as indicator whether Gulf Coast refinery utilization would ease once autumn maintenance began.
It rose again, and to a higher level. The U.S. energy agency's weekly series shows 98.3% for the week to September 4, published on the 10th, above the prior week's 97.7% and 97.0% before that. The natural destination for Venezuelan heavy crude still has no spare room, now with the barrel thirteen dollars dearer.