WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • MACRO

    The Central Bank publishes gross domestic product again and certifies 7.14% for the quarter

    Petrolero 9,10% y no petrolero 5,79% · actividades financieras y de seguros 26,26% · construcción 16,11% · el primer trimestre había sido 2,41%

    affects anyone modeling the country on private estimates who now has an official series to check them against

  • SANCIONES

    Washington blocks a stake in the country's second-largest private crude producer

    Sociedad de las Islas Vírgenes Británicas · vendida por US$300 millones a principios de agosto · designada el 18 de agosto · bajo una orden ejecutiva de 2018

    affects anyone buying a Venezuelan asset assuming a change of owner clears the file

  • INDUSTRIA

    Private manufacturing grows 6.5% in the quarter and leaves nearly half its plant unused

    Utilización de capacidad instalada en 51,7% al cierre de junio · 46,1% un año antes · 8,1% de alza en el semestre · confianza industrial en 33,4 puntos

    affects anyone weighing whether local industry can absorb a demand jump without resorting to imports

01MARKET PULSE · HOYKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$86.77
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
791.32
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$73-79
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$13.36B
PRODUCCIÓN · JUL
1.200M
bpd
INFLACIÓN · JUL
19.9%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

The figure the Central Bank certifies is not the 7.14% but the breakdown. Financial and insurance activities grew 26.26%. Construction, 16.11%. The non-oil aggregate stopped at 5.79%. What pushes is intermediating and rebuilding, not manufacturing, and the issuer itself attributes the non-oil advance to greater currency sales for domestic production. Conindustria, the confederation of industrialists, measures that production at 6.5% with 51.7% of capacity in use. And on the same day Washington blocked a stake in the country's second-largest private crude producer that had already been sold, putting a price on the risk of standing on the real side of that economy. The test comes with the third quarter: if non-oil activity holds when currency sales moderate, the growth had a base of its own.

02THE FIGUREKey number in context
The balance paying for the growth the issuer has just certified
13.025million dollars · international reserves at the August 17 cut

International reserves closed at US$13.025 billion at the August 17 cut, US$244 million below the August 7 cut. The drop concentrated between the 13th and the 14th, and over the last two cuts the balance steadied.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

The Central Bank itself explained the quarter's non-oil advance by greater currency sales directed at domestic production. This is the account those sales come out of, and it gave up US$244 million in ten days before steadying. This is not an alarm level: it is the scoreboard that turns a growth rate into a question of sustainability. For the importer with access to the official allocation, that balance is its capacity to pay abroad next quarter. For the manufacturer without it, it measures how long the competitor's advantage lasts. The growth rate is published once a quarter; this balance updates every week.

IMPLICACIÓN POSITIVA

IMPLICACIÓN NEGATIVA

03RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Macro · Cuentas nacionalesURGENTEPOSITIVOCuentas nacionales del segundo trimestre

Second-quarter national accounts are out: gross domestic product grew 7.14% year on year, against 2.41% in the first quarter, chaining a twenty-first positive quarter.

EVENTO

The Central Bank of Venezuela released second-quarter national accounts on August 18. Gross domestic product grew 7.14% year on year, well above the 2.41% recorded in the first quarter. Oil activity advanced 9.10% and non-oil activity 5.79%. By branch, financial and insurance activities grew 26.26% and construction 16.11%. The issuer attributed the non-oil performance to greater currency sales directed at domestic production and to synergy among economic activities.

BCVProducto interno bruto 7,14% interanual · petrolero 9,10% y no petrolero 5,79% · financieras y seguros 26,26% · construcción 16,11% · el trimestre previo había sido 2,41%
VE Análisis

An expansion nearly tripling the prior quarter's forces a look at where it comes from. It comes from two branches that do not make goods: financial intermediation, growing four and a half times faster than the non-oil aggregate, and construction, pushed by rebuilding after June's earthquake. The issuer also names the lever for the rest: more currency sold to domestic production. That is demand financed with reserves, and reserves gave up US$244 million between the August 7 and August 17 cuts.

QUIÉN GANA

Banking and insurance, growing on transaction volume rather than on the margin of the product they finance.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The analyst modeling the country on private estimates, who finds the official series gives a different figure from the one being cited.

INDICADORwhether non-oil activity holds a rise near 5% in the third quarter once currency sales moderate · el Banco Central publicaría las cuentas de julio a septiembre hacia noviembre de 2026, si mantiene el ritmo de divulgación

Riesgo · Sanciones y titularidadURGENTENEGATIVOAviso del 18 de agosto

Bluwaves Properties Limited, a British Virgin Islands company with a minority stake in the country's second-largest private crude producer, has been designated by the US Treasury.

EVENTO

The US Treasury released on August 18 the designation of Bluwaves Properties Limited, incorporated in the British Virgin Islands, invoking a 2018 executive order aimed at blocking property of those who had supported the former government. The company holds a minority interest in North American Blue Energy Partners, which produces crude in Venezuela behind only Chevron among private firms. Its previous owner, US businessman Harry Sargeant III, had sold it for US$300 million earlier this month, under a specific license authorizing that divestment.

OFACDesignación del 18 de agosto bajo una orden ejecutiva de 2018 · participación minoritaria en el segundo productor privado del país · venta de US$300 millones con licencia específica de salida
VE Análisis

The sequence matters more than the act. Washington first authorized the seller's exit through a specific license — US$300 million collected earlier this month — and then blocked the vehicle, on August 18. A designation is not a conviction: it is an administrative act freezing property under US jurisdiction and barring dealings with the entity. The effect falls on the buyer: the asset changed hands and the block did not leave with the previous owner. Due diligence on a Venezuelan asset does not end at the seller or the price.

QUIÉN GANA

The seller who exited under license and got paid before the block reached the vehicle.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The vehicle's buyer and, by extension, the producer's other partners, whose banking and export operations now coexist with a blocked stake.

INDICADORwhether the Office of Foreign Assets Control issues a general or specific license letting the producer keep operating and exporting despite the blocked stake · las primeras semanas tras la designación, antes del cierre de septiembre de 2026

Sectores · ManufacturaURGENTENEUTRALEncuesta de Coyuntura Industrial del segundo trimestre

Conindustria's quarterly survey is out: private manufacturing grew 8.1% year on year in the first half, and capacity utilization ended June at 51.7%.

EVENTO

Conindustria, the confederation grouping the country's industrialists, released the results of its Industrial Business Survey on August 18. Private manufacturing output grew 8.1% year on year in the first half. By quarter, the advance ran 9.9% and then 6.5%. Capacity utilization ended June at 51.7%, against 46.1% a year earlier. The industrial confidence index came in at 33.4 points.

ConindustriaUtilización de capacidad instalada en 51,7% al cierre de junio · 46,1% un año antes · producción 8,1% interanual en el semestre · 9,9% en el primer trimestre y 6,5% en el segundo
VE Análisis

At 51.7% utilization, this industry can raise output without putting up a new shed: plant it has to spare. What it does not have to spare is working capital. The second quarter's advance — 6.5%, below the first quarter's 9.9% — leaned, according to the group's president, Tito López, on companies' own capital against the country's structural constraints. Adding a shift means financing inventory and payroll months before collecting on them, precisely what the fastest-growing branch in the national accounts ought to be doing.

QUIÉN GANA

The manufacturer with its own cash and an established brand, taking the demand its undercapitalized competitor cannot supply.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The small and midsize manufacturer without working capital, watching its category's consumption grow and unable to add the shift that would serve it.

INDICADORwhether capacity utilization tops 55% in the third-quarter survey · Conindustria publica el corte de julio a septiembre hacia mediados de noviembre de 2026

VE Pulse · Core indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.