The country has a capital market that works, though not to value companies: it works to fund them short-term, the one thing banks cannot do today.
- FINANZAS
Venezuela's exchange has stopped being an equity market and works as a credit window
semana del 3 al 7 de agosto · 96,5% del monto negociado fueron certificados de financiamiento bursátil · 2,1% acciones · unos US$49 millones en total al tipo oficial
affects the Venezuelan company needing working capital with no access to foreign credit
- MACRO
A United Nations body cuts Venezuela's growth for this year
reporte del primer semestre · proyección de 6,5% frente al 7,4% de abril · primer informe que incorpora los efectos del sismo de junio · producción petrolera de 1,09 millones de barriles diarios
affects anyone who budgeted 2026 sales against the earlier projection, and the replacement supplier
- ENERGIA
Washington sells for scrap the two tankers it seized, rather than returning them to the market
venta cerrada en julio · compradora con sede en Dubái · monto no revelado · orden judicial de por medio · destino, desguace en India · unos 10 tanqueros incautados desde enero
affects the owner counting on buying seized tonnage cheap and the charterer paying for that withdrawn capacity
A market of US$49 million a week does not move Venezuela's macro picture, but it explains a behavior: when bolívar balances lose value at the pace UNDP describes, short indexed paper stops being a sophisticated instrument and becomes the substitute for a deposit. That is why the exchange places nearly everything it issues while shares barely move: there is no appetite to own companies, there is a need to shelter balances. The same report cut this year's growth from 7.4% to 6.5% and for the first time priced in June's earthquake. July's price index, which the Central Bank publishes on Thursday, will say whether the official rate's acceleration has reached the counter.
The U.S. energy information agency published its short-term outlook on August 11. It projects Brent averaging close to US$87 a barrel for 2026 and about US$69 for 2027, with this year's third quarter around US$85. Applying the Merey-Brent discount band this publication uses, of 8 to 14 dollars, the 2027 Venezuelan barrel would fall between US$55 and US$61. The document makes no mention of Venezuela.
Contracts negotiated this week are not executed this week. A development that starts producing in 2027 sells against that curve, not against August's Brent, and the gap between the two references is nearly twenty dollars a barrel. That is where a marginal project is decided: with the Merey discount applied to the projection, the 2027 Venezuelan barrel lands in the band where mature, high-lifting-cost fields stop paying for their capital. The projection can be revised monthly, and August's did revise the prior month's upward. What does not change is the exercise: model against the curve, not against the day's headline.
Some 96.5% of what traded on the Caracas exchange during the last full week was stock-market financing paper, and only 2.1% equities, per its own market summary.
The Caracas Stock Exchange published its summary for the last full trading period. Trading totaled Bs 37,308.8 million, some US$49 million at the official rate. Of that, Bs 36,010.2 million were stock-market financing certificates and Bs 780.4 million equities, across 9,109 transactions on 4.6 million shares. Fixed income added Bs 518.1 million. The index closed at 5,256.49 points, up 2.38% in the period and 152.44% so far this year.
Bolsa de Valores de Caracas ↗semana del 3 al 7 de agosto · Bs 37.308,8 millones negociados, unos US$49 millones · financiamiento bursátil Bs 36.010,2 millones · renta variable Bs 780,4 millones · índice +2,38% en la semanaA Venezuelan company needing working capital has no international bank to lend to it and no local bank with enough balance-sheet capacity, so it issues short-term paper on the local exchange, where the bolívar saver seeks yield and cover. Hence 96.5% of weekly volume is financing and barely 2.1% equities: the market is not valuing companies, it is lending to them. Size puts it in perspective, some US$49 million in the week, but it is the only corporate credit channel with an identified, audited issuer working today.
The mid-size consumer, agro-industrial or technology company that places commercial paper and gets tenor without giving up equity.
The investor looking to buy into Venezuelan companies' equity: with 2.1% of volume in shares, there is no depth to build or exit a position.
INDICADORwhether equities' share of total volume tops 5% in the following weekly summaries, and whether a primary share offering appears · la Bolsa de Valores de Caracas publica su resumen de mercado cada viernes; el próximo corte es el del 14 de agosto de 2026
UNDP cut its 2026 growth projection for Venezuela to 6.5%, from the 7.4% it estimated in April, in the first report to incorporate the effects of June's double earthquake.
The United Nations Development Programme published its Venezuela Macroeconomic Report for the first half of 2026. It projects gross domestic product growth near 6.5% by year-end, against the 7.4% it estimated in April. It is the agency's first report to incorporate an estimate of the economic effects of the June 24 double earthquake. Oil output averaged 1.09 million barrels a day over the half-year, and the report attributes the momentum to that recovery, to trade and to greater availability of export foreign currency.
PNUD ↗Reporte Macroeconómico del primer semestre · crecimiento proyectado 6,5% frente a 7,4% en abril · producción petrolera de 1,09 millones de barriles diarios en el semestreAlmost a full percentage point of growth vanishes between one projection and the next, and the agency itself notes that what is new in the interval is the earthquake. The revision does not say the economy contracts: it says it grows less than expected while the stated engine remains oil, at 1.09 million barrels a day for the half-year. For anyone budgeting in Venezuela, the useful figure is not the level but the direction of the revision.
The supplier of replacement materials and services: the revision puts into official figures a reconstruction demand that until now was argued without multilateral backing.
Anyone who built a 2026 plan on the April projection: the sales budget was set against a country growing almost a point faster.
INDICADORwhether the agency revises the figure again in its second-half report and whether it publishes the estimated earthquake damage separately from the growth aggregate · el reporte del segundo semestre se publica a comienzos de 2027; antes de eso, el índice de precios mensual del Banco Central es el contraste más cercano
The two tankers Washington seized in January for carrying sanctioned crude will go to the breakers: the buyer, a Dubai recycler, said it did not know who their owner had been.
The U.S. government sold the tankers Era and Lileo for scrap last month, as became known on August 10. The buyer is a Dubai-based ship recycler and the amount was not disclosed; both vessels will be dismantled in India. Both were seized in January: the Era in waters south of Iceland, after a weeks-long pursuit by the Coast Guard and special forces, and the Lileo in the Caribbean Sea. Washington holds that the Era carried sanctioned crude from Venezuela and Iran.
Reuters ↗venta cerrada en julio · monto no revelado · con orden judicial · Era, antes Marinera y Bella 1 · Lileo, antes Galileo y Veronica · desguace en India · unos 10 tanqueros incautados desde eneroA vessel seized under sanctions does not return to trade: its history makes it uninsurable and no charterer with U.S. exposure will take it, so its only realizable value is the steel. The buyer itself described the complexity by noting it was not sure who the previous owner had been, despite a court order authorizing the sale. With around 10 tankers seized since January, the policy permanently withdraws tonnage in a market where heavy-crude freight is already scarce.
The owner of clean, insurable tonnage: its rate improves each time sanctioned capacity leaves the market without replacement, and that is now some 10 vessels.
The Venezuelan exporter dependent on available freight: every scrapped vessel narrows the pool of ships willing to load at its terminals.
INDICADORwhether the U.S. government auctions or scraps the remaining vessels of the ten seized, and whether any is reassigned to commercial operation instead of the yard · resto de 2026; las ventas de bienes decomisados se ejecutan por orden judicial y se conocen al cerrarse
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn August 10 we set as indicator whether the first approved earthquake-credit operations would be published with amounts and status, and whether the executive would open an equivalent line for new construction.
On August 11 the first three banks were authorized to process the credit — Banco de Venezuela, Banco Digital de los Trabajadores and Banco del Tesoro — with five business days to answer each application and requirements including the digital certificate of affected status and title to the property. The first financings were handed over in Caracas that same day. No approved amounts or number of operations were published, and no line was opened for new construction.