The week's balance is one of asymmetry: Venezuela decreed the shape of its opening and laid bare how much of its money sits abroad. ENERGY — the hydrocarbons regulation was issued by decree: it opens the whole chain to private firms and promotes mixed ventures, but leaves the resource in the State's hands, far from the privatization the press headlined. CURRENCY — the official dollar crossed Bs 700 under the daily-intervention regime, sustained by reserves that are giving way. ASSETS — Caracas claimed in writing the gold held in London, a new request over an old block hostage to recognition. What no single measure says on its own: the country set the intent to take in capital, but neither the fiscal fine print that would make it bankable nor the money that backs it is in its hand. The shape is decreed; the fiscal detail and the money have yet to answer.
↳ Venezuela decreed an opening that unlocks the whole chain but leaves the reservoir in the State's hands; what it does not settle is the fiscal fine print or control of the money: crude under Treasury custody and gold in London.
Delcy Rodríguez decreed this week the regulation of the Hydrocarbons Law: it opens private participation across the whole chain and favors mixed ventures, though the reservoir stays with the State.
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez decreed this week the regulation of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, presented publicly on July 8 as the first comprehensive one in 83 years. The text, 29 pages long, regulates the law's application across the whole chain —from exploration to marketing—, opens private participation and favors strategic mixed ventures between public corporations and private firms. Its purpose reserves to the State the ownership of the reservoirs and the capture of the rent. The specific fiscal terms by type of project have not been made public in detail.
Presidencia (E) · Min. Hidrocarburos · RNV ↗Reglamento de la LOH dictado por decreto, 8-jul · 29 páginas, el primero desde 1943 · abre toda la cadena a privados · alianzas mixtas · el yacimiento sigue estatal · tarifas por proyecto no públicasIt is worth separating the framework from the headline. The regulation opens the entire chain —from extraction to the pump— and promotes strategic alliances, but it is not the 'end of PDVSA' part of the press headlined: it is a State that leases the operation without ceding the resource. What decides whether the framework is bankable is not in view: the law left royalty and tax adjustable by project, and the concrete rates have not been detailed. Without that fine print, capital reads the intent, not yet the return. Indicator: the fiscal terms of the first mixed contract that adapts before July 28.
Delcy Rodríguez and Foreign Minister Yvan Gil sent King Charles III a letter on July 8 to claim some 31 tonnes of Venezuelan gold held at the Bank of England since 2019.
On July 8, acting President Delcy Rodríguez and Foreign Minister Yvan Gil sent King Charles III a letter to claim the release of some 31 tonnes of Venezuelan gold —valued at around US$1.95 billion— held at the Bank of England. The gold has been held since 2019 over a recognition dispute, and the British Supreme Court ruled in 2021 in favor of keeping it blocked. The outcome depends on which counterpart recognizes whom: the IMF recognized the current executive in April and restored access to its Special Drawing Rights, but the United Kingdom has not adopted that stance.
Presidencia (E) · Cancillería VE · Infobae ↗Carta al rey Carlos III (8-jul) por ~31 t de oro en el Banco de Inglaterra (~US$1,95bn), bloqueadas desde 2019 · fallo UK 2021 · el FMI restauró los DEG en abril, el Reino Unido noThe request is new; the block, old; and what separates them is recognition. This same government got the IMF in April to restore access to its reserves in Special Drawing Rights, but the gold in London stays frozen because the United Kingdom did not take that step and its Supreme Court ruled to hold it. For the investor, it is the live case that in Venezuela the durability of a commitment depends on the legitimacy of whoever signs: the same signature counts before one counterpart and not another. And the claim completes the map of money out of reach —the gold in London, plus the crude income under Treasury custody—. Indicator: a formal response from the Foreign Office or the Bank of England.
Airline Iberia returned to Venezuela on July 9 via Valencia (Madrid–Valencia, two frequencies with a technical stop in Santo Domingo); Maiquetía remains restricted after the quake, with an undated plan to reopen via an alternate runway.
Iberia resumed operations to Venezuela on July 9 with the Madrid–Valencia route, two weekly frequencies and a technical stop in Santo Domingo on the return, after suspending them over the damage from the June 24 earthquake at Maiquetía. With the country's main airport still restricted for commercial flights, Valencia has consolidated as the contingency international hub, with dozens of frequencies redirected. The government announced a plan to resume international flights using an alternate runway at Maiquetía, with no confirmed date.
Iberia · Arecoa ↗Iberia reanuda 9-jul Madrid–Valencia · 2 frecuencias/semana · escala técnica en Santo Domingo · Valencia concentra el tráfico mientras Maiquetía sigue sin fecha · Qatar Airways prevista 22-julConnectivity is back, but at half power, and that is the signal. With Maiquetía still not operating commercial flights, Valencia works as a de facto international airport and airlines return with fewer frequencies, technical stops and higher fares. For the diaspora and the traveling business owner, it is real friction: more time and cost per business or due-diligence trip, and a reopening for which there is only an undated plan. The gauge of normalization is not that an airline returns, but that it returns to Caracas and its previous frequency. Indicator: the official reopening date of Maiquetía's alternate runway and whether Qatar Airways holds its July 22 launch.
The BCV official exchange rate crossed Bs 700 per dollar on July 9, for the first time. In the week the bolívar depreciated 7.24% against the official dollar, the fastest pace in months, under the daily-intervention regime seeking to converge toward second-half exchange-rate unification.
The number sums up the week: the official bolívar depreciates faster than before and crosses a psychological barrier. It is not loss of control, it is policy: the Central Bank moves the rate daily to bring it toward the market and advance unification, financing it by selling reserves, now around US$13.5 billion. The uncomfortable contrast is that it happens with monthly inflation at its lowest in 19 months: prices stabilize while the currency runs. For the importer and the business owner, planning in bolívars remains unworkable, and the dollar cost of payroll and taxes rises at the pace of the slide. Indicator: whether the weekly step drops below 7% (convergence near its ceiling) or holds (more pass-through to prices to come).
If the depreciation slows as the rate nears the market and inflation holds, the Central Bank would have converged toward unification without reigniting prices, the scenario it needs to normalize with the multilaterals.
If the slide passes through to prices, the next inflation index could reverse May's disinflation and push monthly inflation back to double digits, raising the cost of the adjustment the Central Bank seeks with convergence.
Next week turns on whether what was decreed becomes operable and whether the frozen money starts to move. On the economy, the tests are dated: the regulation's concrete fiscal terms —the per-project rates the law left to the ministry's discretion—, the adaptation of joint ventures and CPPs before the July 28 deadline, and Friday's reserves reading, which will show how costly it is to sustain the bolívar's convergence. On the assets front, the initiative is taken and the week is measured by what the counterpart answers, not by what Caracas announces. The underlying risk does not change as the asymmetry widens: the country decreed the rules of its wealth, but crude income and the gold stay under someone else's lock, and the Venezuelan asset keeps being priced on a recognition that may not come. The gauge is not the next announcement, but the first hard trace: a published fiscal rate, an adapted joint venture or a response from London.
- ▸El reglamento deja la regalía y el impuesto a criterio del ministerio por proyecto: sin tarifas parejas y públicas, el capital negocia caso por caso en vez de comprometer inversión
- ▸Llega el 28 de julio sin que ninguna mixta o CPP se adecúe al nuevo marco: la apertura decretada no produce un solo contrato operable
- ▸Las reservas perforan los US$13.000M sosteniendo la convergencia: el BCV queda sin margen para defender el bolívar
- ▸El dólar oficial sigue subiendo más de 7% semanal: el traspaso cambiario revierte la desinflación de mayo
- ▸El Banco de Inglaterra no responde el reclamo del oro: los ~US$1,95bn siguen congelados y el reconocimiento sigue trabado
- →próximos días — Publication of the regulation's concrete fiscal terms — its per-project rates will tell whether the framework is bankable or a case-by-case negotiation
- →10-jul — Weekly BCV reserves reading — if it drops below US$13.4bn, daily intervention is draining the external cushion
- →▸ Open thread · Bank of England response to the gold claim — first sign of whether the ~US$1.95bn in gold moves toward release
- →▸ Open thread · adaptation of joint ventures and CPPs (July 28 deadline) — marks whether the decreed opening moves to the first signed contract