WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • MINERÍA

    The Treasury's sanctions office rewrote three mining licenses to cover coal and named Carbones del Zulia alongside Minerven.

    Licencias generales 51D, 54C y 55A · pago a persona bloqueada al fondo de depósitos del decreto de enero · comprador extranjero constituido antes del 29-ene-2025

    affects the trader buying Guasare coal who today pays outside that channel

  • ENERGÍA

    Chevron announced updated terms for its joint ventures and the assignment of two Orinoco Belt areas to Petroindependencia, where its subsidiary holds 49%.

    Más de US$7.000 millones a cinco años · meta de unos 600.000 barriles diarios · costo total declarado por debajo de US$20 por barril

    affects anyone reading that capital commitment as the parent's spending rather than the joint ventures'

  • MACRO

    The official rate crossed 800 bolivars to the dollar, leaving an amount fixed in bolivars at the end of July worth 7.2% less in hard currency.

    Bs 804,81 por dólar para el 3 de septiembre · primer cierre sobre 800 el 2 de septiembre · 7,8% de avance desde el cierre de julio

    affects anyone earning in bolivars and buying in dollars, which is nearly everyone working inside the country

01MARKET PULSE · HOYKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$96.88
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
804.81
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$83-89
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$12.90B
PRODUCCIÓN · JUL
1.200M
bpd
INFLACIÓN · JUL
19.9%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

The answer the Treasury amended on Wednesday handles oil, minerals and, from now on, coal in a single paragraph, and imposes the same condition on all three: payment to a blocked person goes into the deposit fund designated by January's executive order, and the foreign counterparty must have existed before January 29, 2025. Venezuelan coal was already being sold without needing that permission, raw and to Turkey, through a company set up in 2018. What the license adds is not the door but the destination of the payment. And that same sentence now covers the barrel Chevron has just committed to produce and the ton leaving the Guasare. The registry will tell: the first contingent contract filed under the new license will show whether anyone accepts being paid that way.

02THE FIGUREKey number in context
The country's cash box, set beside what gets signed
13.288million dollars in central bank international reserves as of the August 31 cut

The central bank's international reserves closed August at $13.288 billion. The capital commitment announced by one company's joint ventures for the next five years exceeds $7 billion.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

These are not magnitudes to subtract: one is the balance of a cash box, the other a private spending plan spread over five years. Set side by side they give the scale of who decides the coming cycle. One company's joint venture program equals more than half the country's reserves, and it is those joint ventures, not the central bank, that set the execution calendar. For the treasury the distinction is everything: revenue is collected on the barrel that gets metered, not on the commitment that gets announced, and reserves move with the former.

IMPLICACIÓN POSITIVA

IMPLICACIÓN NEGATIVA

03RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Riesgo regulatorio · Minería y carbónURGENTEMIXTOLicencias 51D, 54C y 55A · 2

The Treasury's sanctions office issued licenses 51D, 54C and 55A on September 2. Against the August 27 versions they add coal and name Carbones del Zulia alongside Minerven.

EVENTO

The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control published three Venezuela general licenses on Wednesday and amended one guidance answer. License 51D authorizes exporting, selling, storing and transporting Venezuelan-origin coal or minerals; 54C authorizes supplying goods, technology and services for coal or minerals operations; 55A authorizes negotiating contingent investment contracts in those sectors. The August 27 versions said minerals and gold. All three now name Carbones del Zulia, the state coal company, alongside Minerven, the state gold company.

OFAC — Departamento del Tesoro de EE. UU.Licencias 51D, 54C y 55A · Carbones del Zulia nombrada junto a Minerven · foro en EE. UU., Reino Unido, Francia o Singapur · comprador constituido antes del 29-ene-2025
VE Análisis

That coal was leaving raw for Turkey without a U.S. license, from Paso Diablo and Mina Norte, restarted in late 2024. Inside the framework come conditions that did not touch it before: disputes are resolved in the United States, the United Kingdom, France or Singapore; payment to a blocked person goes into the deposit fund set by January's executive order or wherever the Treasury instructs; and the foreign buyer is covered only if its company existed before January 29, 2025 and does not process the mineral in China, Russia, Iran, North Korea or Cuba.

QUIÉN GANA

The U.S. miner or trader incorporated before January 29, 2025, which now negotiates coal investment contracts without case-by-case permission.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The buyer paying for that coal outside the channel: carrying on starts costing exposure to a designation.

INDICADORwhether a first contingent contract in the coal sector is filed under license 55A, and whether the company exporting to Turkey today adopts the payment condition · la licencia rige desde el 2 de septiembre y no lleva fecha de vencimiento

Energía · Compromiso de capitalURGENTEPOSITIVOComunicado de Houston · 2

Chevron announced updated terms for its Venezuelan joint ventures from Houston on September 2, plus two Orinoco Belt areas assigned to Petroindependencia, where its subsidiary holds 49%.

EVENTO

The release, dated Houston September 2, says the agreements update the terms of Chevron's joint ventures with enhanced fiscal, commercial and legal conditions, and that Petroindependencia was assigned the rights to develop Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-South-A, two adjacent Orinoco Belt areas the company itself calls greenfield. It puts total costs below $20 a barrel. Its three joint ventures have grown 15% year to date. Its chief executive thanks the Department of Energy and Secretary Wright.

Chevron — comunicado corporativoMás de US$7.000 millones a cinco años · meta de unos 600.000 b/d · costo total declarado <US$20/bbl · Petroindependencia 49% · Carabobo-1 y Carabobo-2-Sur-A · +15% de producción en lo que va de año
VE Análisis

The text says it is the joint ventures' plans that contemplate investing more than $7 billion over five years to take production to roughly 600,000 barrels a day. The subject matters: Chevron's subsidiary holds 49% of Petroindependencia, so most of the outlay falls to the state partner. Divided by the new barrels, the program works out at roughly $22,000 per barrel a day of capacity, the order of magnitude for pricing any other announcement this season.

QUIÉN GANA

The partner entering an area adjacent to an existing operation: neighboring infrastructure sustains the declared cost below $20 a barrel.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Anyone pricing the season's other announcements without a cost-per-new-barrel reference.

INDICADORwhether the administrative act assigning Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-South-A appears, and whether Chevron's next quarterly report breaks out the capital commitment · el informe del tercer trimestre de Chevron se publica hacia el 31 de octubre de 2026

Macro · Tipo de cambio oficialURGENTENEGATIVOReferencia oficial del 3

The central bank's official rate closed September 2 at Bs 801.18 to the dollar, the first close above 800, and stands at Bs 804.81 for the 3rd, 7.8% above July's close.

EVENTO

The central bank published on September 2 the official rate at which the following day opens: Bs 804.81 to the dollar. September 2 had closed at Bs 801.18, the first time the official rate has passed 800 bolivars. July's close was Bs 746.63. The domestic market runs on that reference: it converts tax liabilities, payroll and regulated prices, and trade groups use it to index fares at the start of each month.

BCV — tipo de cambio oficialBs 804,81 por dólar para el 3-sep · primer cierre sobre 800 el 2-sep · +7,8% desde el 31 de julio · salario mínimo legal en Bs 130 desde marzo de 2022
VE Análisis

In five weeks the official rate rose 7.8%, from Bs 746.63 at July's close to Bs 804.81. By construction, any amount agreed in bolivars at the end of July now buys 7.2% less in hard currency. The effect is not symmetric: whoever bills in dollars and pays costs in bolivars gains; whoever collects in bolivars and restocks imported inventory loses the margin along the way. The legal minimum wage has stood at Bs 130 a month since March 2022, which at tomorrow's reference is sixteen U.S. cents a month.

QUIÉN GANA

The exporter and service provider billing in hard currency while paying rent, payroll and taxes at the official reference.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The retailer selling in bolivars at list price and restocking with imported inventory, who finds the loss when it is time to restock.

INDICADORthe August price index the central bank publishes and the pace at which the official rate advances through September · el índice de julio se publicó el 12 de agosto; el de agosto llega a mediados de septiembre

04

HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING

indicators we issued in earlier editions
  • Confirmededition #119 · 2026-08-26

    On August 26 we set as indicator whether Maiquetia's terminals would operate on September 1 without another postponement and whether international carriers would load itineraries for the first week of September.

    The airport resumed regular operations on September 1 in the modular halls. The transport ministry reported an opening day of 1,206 outbound and 1,250 inbound passengers, with Conviasa, Laser, Copa Airlines, Air Europa, Estelar, Rutaca and Aeropostal operating. The main terminal, damaged by the June 24 quakes, is being rebuilt separately and on its own calendar.

VE Pulse · Core indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.