The permit to operate in Venezuela already exists; the contract that makes it financeable does not. And while blame for the jam is debated, the one not drilling is still the same.
- ENERGÍA
Majors and independents hit the same wall and give opposite explanations of why
30-jul y 3-ago · Exxon y Chevron estancadas por compensaciones de la era Chávez · dos independientes entregaron documentos contra el Departamento de Energía · casi ocho meses desde la promesa
affects anyone who had the license settled and expected the contract to follow
- INFRAESTRUCTURA
U.S. technicians enter Guri to assess Venezuela's power system
3-ago · el encargado de negocios John Barrett y el Departamento de Energía con Corpoelec · el Guri aporta cerca del 60% de la electricidad · un día antes el Estado prometió 4.800 MW térmicos
affects the operator that signed mandatory self-generation and the plant already running at half speed
- MACRO
India steps back from Venezuelan crude and placement narrows to a single buyer
julio · 856.000 barriles diarios de crudo, mínimo de cinco meses · India cae cerca de la mitad · los envíos a EE.UU. tocan su mayor nivel en nueve años · China fuera desde enero
affects anyone modeling the country's income on demand assumed to be diversified
The U.S. majors are stalled in negotiations over the best fields, and on August 3 two independents laid the delay at Washington's energy desk.
ExxonMobil, Chevron and other majors reached an impasse in talks over access to the most attractive prospects in the Orinoco Belt and Monagas, according to a July 30 report. They are competing for a limited number of blocks and pressing for more favorable fiscal and ownership terms; unresolved Chávez-era compensation disputes weigh on the talks. Exxon found severe damage at Cerro Negro, which it operated before 2007, and restarting it would cost billions. On August 3, two independent companies handed over documents from months of efforts to get the Energy Department to make PDVSA recognize international drilling contracts. The department replied that it keeps working with Caracas and with the companies.
Departamento de Energía de EE.UU. — vía Axios ↗Impasse reportado el 30-jul · bloques en Faja del Orinoco y Monagas · Cerro Negro, nacionalizado en 2007, exigiría miles de millones para reiniciar · dos independientes con documentos el 3-agoThe two brakes work on different planes. The majors are negotiating ACCESS: which blocks, on what share, and what happens to what was expropriated from them, settled asset by asset. The independents are negotiating TERMS: who takes the dry hole and in what order investment is recovered before production is shared. The law reformed in January set the aggregate rate between 20% and 35% depending on the field, but left that allocation to negotiation with PDVSA. Without the clause, the operator puts up capital and takes the geology while the state collects from the first barrel.
The operators already in place with receivables to collect, Chevron among them: every month without new competition is uncontested access to the crude that pays down what they are owed.
The independents that signed memoranda between April and May and still are not drilling: they keep crews against a calendar they do not control. And the treasury, which collects no royalty on barrels nobody produces.
INDICADORwhether a signed drilling contract is announced with published risk and cost-recovery terms, or a pending Chávez-era compensation is settled · agosto de 2026, el plazo que el propio departamento mencionó al hablar de las próximas semanas
The U.S. chargé d'affaires and Energy Department technicians inspected the Guri dam with Corpoelec on August 3, a day after the state promised 4,800 thermal megawatts.
John Barrett, U.S. chargé d'affaires in Venezuela, toured the Guri dam on August 3 with specialists from the U.S. Energy Department, backed by the State Department and coordinated with the Ministry of Electrical Energy and Corpoelec. The team produced a technical assessment to chart a roadmap for modernizing the National Electrical System. Guri supplies close to 60% of the country's electricity. A day earlier, Delcy Rodríguez had announced the recovery of 4,800 thermal megawatts before December with GE Vernova and IMPSA, and said Termocarabobo, of 600 megawatts, runs on 300 recovered after the earthquake.
Embajada de Estados Unidos en Venezuela ↗Inspección del 3-ago dentro del plan de tres fases · el Guri aporta cerca del 60% de la electricidad · 4.800 MW térmicos prometidos para diciembre · Termocarabobo 600 MW, 300 operativosEach side is looking at its half of the problem. The state answers with thermal power, which needs fuel, spare parts and months of assembly; the foreign assessment points at hydro, where most of the capacity sits and where a prolonged drought cuts output just as heat lifts demand. While that roadmap is defined, the July hydrocarbons regulation already requires operators to self-generate their electricity or contract it: the state shifted the cost of its own supply onto whoever invests.
The suppliers named in the plan, GE Vernova and IMPSA, and whoever ends up positioned in the modernization the assessment produces. Also the self-generation chain, with a calendar running to December.
The manufacturing plant already running partially after the earthquake with no backup of its own: it pays either for the genset or for the shutdown. And retail absorbing the adjustment by schedule, not by contract.
INDICADORwhether the assessment produces a document with works, amounts and owners, and whether Termocarabobo restores the 300 megawatts still missing · agosto de 2026 para Termocarabobo; el cierre del año para la meta de 4.800 megavatios
Crude exports fell in July to 856,000 barrels per day, a five-month low, as the Iran truce released the Middle Eastern barrels India had stopped buying there.
Venezuelan crude shipments fell in July to 856,000 barrels per day, 25% below June and the lowest in five months, according to Kpler data and tanker tracking. The reason is Indian demand, which dropped by roughly half after the pause in the Iran war returned Middle Eastern barrels held in the Persian Gulf to the market. The United States and India remained the two main buyers, but with very different weights: shipments to the United States rose and their four-week moving average reached 614,000 barrels per day in the week of July 17, the highest in nine years. China has been out of the Venezuelan market since January.
Kpler y seguimiento de buques — vía Bloomberg ↗Julio · 856.000 b/d de crudo, −25% mensual y mínimo de cinco meses · India cerca de −50% · EE.UU. 614.000 b/d de media móvil, máximo en nueve años · China ausente desde eneroVenezuelan crude competes in Asia on discount, not on quality, and that discount only pays while there are no heavier barrels closer by. With the Strait of Hormuz normalized, the Indian refiner recovers its natural supplier and the Venezuelan one stops making economic sense. What is left is a single large buyer at short haul, and bargaining power over the differential shifts to it. This is the commercial face of the same jam: with no new operators adding volume, income depends on whom you sell to, not on how much you produce.
The U.S. Gulf refiner, negotiating the Merey differential with less competition for the same barrel. And the trading houses already running the channel to that destination.
The country's external income, exposed to a buyer whose licensing policy can change. And anyone projecting second-half cash flow on Asian demand assumed to be firm.
INDICADORwhether August shipments recover India or consolidate the concentration in the United States, and whether the Merey discount widens on less competition among buyers · primeros días de septiembre de 2026, al cerrar el conteo de agosto
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsYesterday we put on the agenda the authorization on the PDVSA 2020 bond, collateralized with CITGO shares, and noted Treasury has rolled it forward repeatedly since 2019: what was worth recording was a likely extension, not a resolution.
OFAC issued general license 5Y on August 3 and moved the effective date to September 17. Until then, sale or transfer of the shares backing the bond remains prohibited absent a specific license. The new window is six weeks.