- INFLACIÓN
The central bank and the Finance Ministry set two-digit inflation and 6% to 10% growth for 2027.
Ene–sep 2026: 225,3% · ritmo compatible con la meta: menos de 5,9% mensual · septiembre: 8,4%
affects anyone who earns, saves or lends in bolívars
- DEUDA
The Second Circuit confirms that the PDVSA 2020 bonds and their claim on Citgo are valid.
Garantía: 50,1% de Citgo Holding · licencia 5Z de la OFAC: hasta el 5-nov
affects PDVSA 2020 bondholders and Citgo's other creditors
- PETRÓLEO
NABEP delivers its first million barrels to the U.S. at no cost; Trump calls it a "gift" from Venezuela.
1 millón de barriles · 2 tanqueros en Corpus Christi · regalía del cargamento: no informada
affects anyone tracking fiscal revenue from Venezuelan crude
The agreement puts numbers on 2027 without controlling the keys they depend on. Growth rests on "the increase in external oil revenue," and the proceeds of crude sales and their royalties are deposited in accounts held in custody by the U.S. Treasury, whose disbursement the State Department decides. The external financing it seeks runs through multilateral lenders with which Venezuela is in arrears. And the price target comes with no anchor: the dollar is left to interventions whose amounts are not published. For anyone who earns, saves or lends in bolívars, the agreement offers a reference, not a guarantee: its eighth clause voids it in the face of a reform that damages public finances, and the tax reform that promises to lower burdens still has no text. The first test is October's inflation, due in early November.
A gallon of regular gasoline went from $2.796 in the week of January 5 to $4.269 in the week of October 26, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The U.S. went from buying about 145,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in the four weeks before the capture to 551,000 in the four weeks to October 16, according to preliminary EIA data. Pump prices followed Brent, not that volume: the rise began with the military action in the Middle East that started on February 28, which left the Strait of Hormuz "effectively closed," according to the EIA, and Brent jumped from $71 to $111 in three weeks. Venezuelan crude arrived; cheap gasoline did not. Trump said on Tuesday the 27th that oil prices will drop "very sharply very soon." The EIA publishes its next weekly reading on Monday, November 2, the eve of the midterms.
The central bank and the Economy and Finance Ministry signed the 2027 Annual Policy Agreement on Monday the 26th: growth of 6% to 10% and two-digit inflation by year-end.
Economy and Finance Minister Anabel Pereira and central bank president Luis Pérez signed the 2027 Annual Economic Policy Agreement on Monday the 26th, and the bank published it on Tuesday the 27th. It sets real GDP growth of 6% to 10% "based on the increase in external oil revenue" and annual inflation "of two digits by the close of 2027." From January to September 2026, prices rose a cumulative 225.3%, according to the central bank. The exchange rate stays under the 2018 exchange agreement and the bank's intervention.
Banco Central de Venezuela ↗Crecimiento 2027: 6% a 10% · inflación 2027: dos dígitos · ene–sep 2026: 225,3% · ritmo compatible: menos de 5,9% mensual · septiembre: 8,4%To close 2027 below 100%, prices would have to rise by less than 5.9% a month on average; through September 2026 they averaged 14%. The agreement sets no target for the exchange rate, reserve requirements or credit: it refers to Exchange Agreement No. 1 of 2018 and to an intervention whose amounts the central bank does not publish. It also seeks to "increase the weight of external financing sources," and its eighth clause allows it to be revised or annulled if a legislative reform compromises fiscal sustainability.
Anyone who earns, saves or lends in bolívars, from wage earners to banks: they have an official price target to hold the central bank and the Finance Ministry to.
Anyone who needs a rule for the dollar: the agreement leaves it to a 2018 framework and to interventions with no published amounts.
INDICADORWhether monthly inflation falls toward 5.9%, the pace consistent with two-digit annual inflation. · INPC de octubre a comienzos de noviembre; montos del presupuesto 2027, consignado el 14 de octubre y aún sin discusión pública.
The PDVSA 2020 bonds are valid and the Assembly did not have to approve the 2016 swap, the federal appeals court in New York confirmed on Tuesday the 27th.
The Second Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday the 27th upheld Judge Failla's ruling: the 2016 swap, which exchanged notes due in 2017 for the PDVSA 2020 bonds secured by 50.1% of Citgo Holding, is valid. The court found that Article 150 of the Constitution did not require prior approval by the Assembly and that its 2016 and 2019 resolutions do not void a transaction carried out outside Venezuela. It noted that neither the United States nor the Rodríguez government told it whether the change in recognition affects the case.
Segundo Circuito de EE. UU. ↗Garantía: 50,1% de Citgo Holding · canje de 2016: aceptado por 39,4% de los bonos 2017 · licencia 5Z: hasta el 5-nov · venta en Delaware: más de US$2.000 M para los 2020The ruling orders neither payment nor a sale: it confirms that the swap and the pledge are valid. Enforcing the collateral remains subject to OFAC, whose General License 5Z defers it until November 5. In Delaware, the sale plan for PDV Holding commits more than $2 billion to retire at least two-thirds of the 2020 bonds; that approval is on appeal before the Third Circuit, which heard arguments on October 21.
Holders of the PDVSA 2020 bonds: their claim on 50.1% of Citgo Holding is upheld on appeal.
PDVSA and the Republic: they lose on appeal the nullity argument they used to defend Citgo against those bonds.
INDICADORWhether OFAC extends or lets General License 5Z lapse, which holds back enforcement of the collateral, and whether the Third Circuit rules on the PDV Holding sale. · Licencia 5Z: 5 de noviembre; Tercer Circuito: alegatos oídos el 21 de octubre, sin fecha de fallo.
NABEP said on Tuesday the 27th that two tankers carrying one million barrels of Venezuelan crude arrived in Corpus Christi, delivered to the U.S. government at no cost.
NABEP, the operator in which the U.S. government holds 35% of the parent company, said on Tuesday the 27th that two tankers carrying one million barrels of Venezuelan crude had arrived in Corpus Christi and that it delivered the oil "at no cost to the U.S. taxpayer." Before leaving Washington, Trump said Venezuela sent it to him "as a gift." At a campaign rally at the port, he proposed making Venezuela "the 51st state" and electing "a governor" instead of a president. As of Tuesday night, Caracas had not responded.
NABEP ↗1 millón de barriles · 2 tanqueros en Corpus Christi · costo para EE. UU.: cero · derecho de compra: 20% de la producción al costo · regalía del cargamento: no informadaThe August agreement gives Washington the right to buy 20% of NABEP's output at cost; this first cargo arrived free. The release does not say whether it paid the royalty set by the hydrocarbons law or who refines it. Executive Order 14373 treats the proceeds of Venezuelan crude sales as property of the Government of Venezuela held in U.S. custody: a cargo with no price leaves no proceeds to hold.
The U.S. government: it receives one million barrels without paying for them, and Trump showcased them at a rally seven days before the November 3 midterms.
The Venezuelan treasury, if the cargo paid no royalty: the release does not say, and January's law sets a royalty of up to 30% on crude produced.
INDICADORWhether NABEP, the Energy Department or the Hydrocarbons Ministry discloses who refines the crude, whether it paid royalties and at what price the 20% of output will be sold. · Próximo cargamento de NABEP, sin fecha publicada; legislativas en EE. UU. el 3 de noviembre.
The Unitary Platform backed Machado as its presidential candidate on Tuesday the 27th and opened a consultation on its 14-point accord, the day nominations to a new Supreme Court were called.
Unitary Platform spokeswoman Delsa Solórzano on Tuesday the 27th backed María Corina Machado as the coalition's presidential candidate, announced a public consultation on its 14-point "Great National Unity Accord" and called for lifting the bans on candidates and freeing political prisoners. That day, in Aragua, Delcy Rodríguez said that "there are those who are hungry for power" and that "the most sacred thing is that no one interferes." The Assembly published the call for Supreme Court nominations: October 28 to November 11.
Plataforma Unitaria — vía Crónica Uno ↗Acuerdo de la Plataforma: 14 puntos · postulaciones al TSJ: hasta el 11-nov · impugnaciones: 15 días · cuarta ronda: 11 al 15-novThe candidacy runs into the Comptroller's ban, which the Supreme Court upheld in January 2024 and whose law is under review in the talks. The new Supreme Court starts to take shape: nominations until November 11, followed by 15 days for challenges. The fourth round of talks, November 11 to 15, starts the day nominations close.
Machado: she reaches the fourth round with the coalition's backing, and the coalition keeps in contact with the 2015 Assembly delegation at the table.
Anyone betting on an election without resolving the bans: the main opposition coalition already has a candidate, and she is barred.
INDICADORWhether the fourth round agrees on reforming the Comptroller law, and who applies to the Supreme Court. · Postulaciones al TSJ hasta el 11 de noviembre; cuarta ronda del diálogo del 11 al 15 de noviembre.