- TRANSICIÓN
The State Department expects a new Supreme Court by mid-December and, after that, an electoral council that can no longer bar candidates.
Postulaciones al TSJ: desde el miércoles 28 · 32 magistrados · cuarta ronda del diálogo: 11 al 15-nov
affects those signing long-term contracts with the acting authorities
- IMPUESTOS
The tax administration expects October revenue to grow close to 40% and announces a reform that "will lower tax burdens."
Septiembre: +37,6% interanual, casi US$1.200 M · reforma: sin texto en la Asamblea
affects companies drawing up 2027 budgets
- DIVISAS
Foreign-currency deposits reach 40.59% of bank deposits in September.
US$2.660 M · +2,86 pp en un año · dólar oficial: +3,3% en octubre
affects banks and savers holding bolívars
The order Washington described puts the election behind two institutions that have yet to be renewed, and until then the rules that weigh most on an investment are set by announcement. The tax administration promises to lower burdens with no text before the Assembly, and savings keep moving into foreign currency, now 40.59% of deposits. For those signing long-term contracts with the acting authorities, durability depends on that sequence being met and on the election being accepted also by those not negotiating its rules today. The test begins with the Supreme Court: the Assembly opens nominations on Wednesday the 28th and Washington expects it seated by mid-December. The fourth round of talks, November 11 to 15, would have to agree on the electoral council.
The central bank's official exchange rate went from 859.06 bolívars per dollar on September 30 to 887.30 with value date Tuesday the 27th, a 3.3% rise in 27 days.
In September the official dollar rate rose 8.1% and prices 8.4%; in August, 6.5% against 8.9%. In October the daily rise in the official rate fell to less than half of September's pace, and the central bank does not publish the amounts of its foreign-exchange interventions. International reserves, at $12.913 billion as of October 22, remain within the range recorded since March. If October prices rise at a pace similar to September's, the official dollar becomes cheaper in real terms: importers pay fewer bolívars per dollar than their local costs went up. The central bank publishes October price data in early November.
A senior State Department official, unnamed under the call's ground rules, laid out on Monday the 26th the sequence toward an election: the Supreme Court, a reformed electoral council and then the presidential vacancy. Caracas has not confirmed it.
In a call with reporters whose transcript the department released on Monday the 26th, a senior official speaking on condition of anonymity said the goal is a new Supreme Court by mid-December, with 32 justices proposed by a committee with members from the government and the 2015 National Assembly. A technical electoral council would follow, with no Assembly ratification and no power to remove candidates from the ballot. With both in place, Delcy Rodríguez would have to declare a permanent vacancy. That day, Rodríguez denied that Machado faces persecution.
Departamento de Estado de EE. UU. ↗TSJ nuevo: 32 magistrados, meta a mediados de diciembre · postulaciones: desde el 28-oct · cuarta ronda: 11 al 15-nov · plazo para votar: 6 meses según EE. UU., 30 días en el art. 233The sequence puts the renewal of the two institutions that decide who runs ahead of any election date: the Assembly opens Supreme Court nominations on Wednesday the 28th, and the electoral council reform moves to the next round of talks, November 11 to 15. The official spoke of six months to vote after the vacancy; Article 233 of the Constitution sets 30 days when a permanent vacancy occurs in the first four years of the term.
The politicians who, according to the official, the electoral council kept off the ballot, Machado among them: without that power, their candidacies would depend on administrative bans, whose law is under review in the talks.
Anyone betting on a quick election: in the sequence described, the vacancy that starts the clock comes after the new Supreme Court and electoral council, not before.
INDICADORWhether the Assembly approves the 32 justices and whether the fourth round of talks agrees on the electoral council reform. · Postulaciones al TSJ desde el 28 de octubre; cuarta ronda del 11 al 15 de noviembre; TSJ nuevo para mediados de diciembre, según Washington.
The head of the SENIAT tax agency, Román Maniglia, said on state television that October revenue would grow close to 40% and that the tax reform headed to the National Assembly "will lower tax burdens."
In a state television interview reported on the 26th, Román Maniglia said October revenue would close with an increase close to 40%, the fourth monthly rise in a row. He did not specify the base; September's, nearly $1.2 billion, was year on year. He added that the money will fund the Venezuela Renace reconstruction fund and social programs, and that the tax reform, which includes business groups' proposals, will soon go to the National Assembly and "will lower tax burdens."
SENIAT — vía Últimas Noticias ↗Recaudación prevista en octubre: ~+40% · julio +7% · agosto +24% · septiembre +37,6% interanual (~US$1.200 M) · especiales: 1-nov · libre facturación: 19-abr-2027The Treasury collects more and promises to charge less with no public text of the reform: the Assembly's October 23 note names only the tax on large financial transactions. The new regime for special taxpayers takes effect on November 1, and the freedom to choose how to invoice applies from April 19, 2027, not now.
The Treasury, which uses the increase to fund Venezuela Renace and social programs.
Companies drawing up 2027 budgets without knowing which taxes the reform cuts or from when.
INDICADORThe official October revenue report and the filing of the reform bill in the Assembly. · Balance de octubre a comienzos de noviembre (el de septiembre salió el 2 de octubre); régimen de contribuyentes especiales, 1 de noviembre.
Banks' foreign-currency deposits closed September at $2.66 billion, 40.59% of total deposits, according to Sudeban balance sheets processed by Banca y Negocios.
According to balance sheets from the bank supervisor, Sudeban, processed by Banca y Negocios on the 26th, foreign-currency deposits closed September at $2,660.47 million: $2,156.74 million in freely convertible accounts and $503.73 million in custody accounts under Exchange Agreement 20. They make up 40.59% of deposits, 0.69 points more than in August and 2.86 more than a year earlier. At BNC, 58.77% of deposits are in foreign currency; Banco de Venezuela holds 88.39% of the custody accounts.
Sudeban — vía Banca y Negocios ↗Depósitos en divisas: US$2.660 M (septiembre) · 40,59% de las captaciones · +0,69 pp en el mes, +2,86 pp en un año · BNC: 58,77% en divisasSavings are moving into foreign currency while the bolívar loses ground to prices: in September the official dollar rose 8.1% and prices 8.4%. Freely convertible accounts, which allow transactions in foreign currency within the system, grew 3.6% in real terms in the month; custody accounts fell 0.52% measured in dollars.
Banks with the largest foreign-currency base: BNC, with 58.77% of its deposits in foreign currency, and Banco de Venezuela, with 88.39% of custody accounts.
Savers holding bolívars: prices rose 8.4% in September.
INDICADORThe foreign-currency share in Sudeban's October balance sheets. · Balances de octubre, hacia fines de noviembre; liquidez semanal del BCV, hacia el 28 de octubre.
Avianca has run a second daily Caracas–Bogotá flight since Sunday the 25th, and TAP resumes its direct Lisbon–Caracas flight on Tuesday the 27th, which it had halted after the June earthquakes.
Avianca started a second daily flight between Caracas and Bogotá on Sunday the 25th, with 180-seat aircraft, adding 2,500 seats a week; it reaches 28 weekly frequencies between Colombia and Venezuela, from Caracas, Valencia and Maracaibo. It had announced that frequency for March 28. TAP resumes the direct Lisbon–Caracas flight on Tuesday the 27th, on Tuesdays and Sundays, with fares from 669 euros. It had halted the route after the June 24 earthquakes, which damaged the airport, and keeps its Valencia service.
Avianca — vía El Tiempo ↗Avianca: 2 vuelos diarios Caracas–Bogotá desde el 25-oct · 28 frecuencias semanales Colombia–Venezuela · +2.500 asientos/semana · TAP: Lisboa–Caracas 2 por semana desde el 27-octMore direct frequencies from Caracas reduce reliance on connections through third countries: from Bogotá, Avianca reaches more than 80 destinations in the Americas and Europe, and Lisbon links to TAP's European network. This is capacity coming back: Avianca had launched its second frequency in March, and TAP flew direct to Caracas before moving to Valencia after the earthquakes.
Companies operating between Colombia, Portugal and Venezuela, and the Portuguese and Portuguese-descended community, for which TAP describes the route as particularly important.
Connections through third countries, which lose passengers who can now fly direct.
INDICADORWhether load factors sustain Avianca's second frequency and whether TAP goes beyond two weekly flights. · Diciembre de 2026, temporada alta.