- POLÍTICA
María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela on Sunday and reached Caracas overland, with no public guarantees from the government and outside the dialogue table.
Cuarta ronda del diálogo: 11-15 nov · anuncio: 11:31 ET · llegada a Caracas: 21:37
affects parties outside the talks and anyone signing long-term contracts with the state
- PETRÓLEO
Junín 5 awaits Hydrocarbons Ministry approval; with it, Eni says it could take the phase 1 investment decision before year-end.
Fase 1: 200.000 b/d brutos en 24 meses · plan ya entregado · contrato de 25 años
affects Eni, PDVSA and service companies
- MERCADO LOCAL
The Caracas Stock Exchange closed the week down 8.72%, dragged on Friday by listed banks.
IBC: 9.083,29 · semana: −8,72% · índice financiero el viernes: −5,27% · en el año: +336%
affects holders of Venezuelan equities and issuers preparing placements
Since Sunday the transition has two centers in the same country. One is the dialogue table between the government and the 2015 Assembly delegation, which this month finishes choosing the Supreme Court —nominations open on Wednesday the 28th— and put off electoral council reform. The other is the leader who won the 2023 opposition primary, who came back outside that table and with no public guarantees. The government has not said what it will do about the measures against her; Washington, which has recognized Delcy Rodríguez as head of state since March 5, asks everyone to join. For anyone signing long-term contracts with the acting authority, what moves the risk is whether the fourth round, from November 11 to 15, puts a date on electoral council reform.
↳ The central bank sets no rate with Monday's value date: the next official reference is Tuesday the 27th's, already published.
↳ It is the stage the State Department placed ahead of electoral council reform: its progress sets the pace of the election calendar.
↳ It is its first call since it said, on September 11, that it will fund its $7 billion Venezuela investment from the cash flow of its three joint ventures.
↳ From that day, revocations run for those below the thresholds; hydrocarbons, gas and mining companies, and their main suppliers, remain in the regime.
↳ If Democrats win a chamber, from January they would have subpoena power over the U.S. government's agreement with NABEP, which so far they have only been able to request by letter.
↳ The call will show whether Vente Venezuela has a seat and whether the National Electoral Council finally makes the agenda.
PDVSA reported national output of 1,252,000 barrels a day on Friday the 23rd, the highest since 2019 according to the company, during a broadcast from a Petrozamora field in Zulia.
It was given by Eduardo Pinto, a PDVSA vice president, at an event with the acting president and the U.S. chargé d'affaires. It is one day's output, not a monthly average. The benchmark for comparison is OPEC: for September it recorded 1.206 million barrels a day by direct communication from the government and 1.15 million from its secondary sources, which do not depend on Caracas. If October approaches PDVSA's figure, OPEC's November report will show it in that second column. What is paid to PDVSA for that crude goes into U.S. Treasury accounts, as General License 46E provides.
María Corina Machado announced on Sunday the 25th, at 11:31 a.m. ET, that she was in Venezuela, and traveled overland from Lara to Caracas; the government had not commented by close.
María Corina Machado posted on Sunday the 25th, at 11:31 a.m. ET, "I am here. With you"; she had been abroad since December 2025. Her first appearance was at the Santa Rosa church in Barquisimeto, and from there she continued overland through Yaracuy, Carabobo and Aragua to Caracas, where Vente Venezuela, her party, arrived at 9:37 p.m. The opposition delegation to the talks credited the table; the government delegate, Jorge Arreaza, called for politics "without excessive confrontation" without naming her, and Marco Rubio credited the U.S.-supported talks.
María Corina Machado ↗Cuarta ronda del diálogo: 11-15 nov · anuncio: 25-oct, 11:31 ET · recorrido: Barquisimeto–Chivacoa–Morón–Maracay–Caracas · llegada a Caracas: 21:37Machado is not part of the table that brings together the government and the delegation of the National Assembly elected in 2015; she says she was not included and the State Department says her party was invited. By reported accounts, she faces a court ban on leaving the country and a disqualification the third round agreed to review without annulling it, and no safe conduct is on record. On October 21, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said that "no one is prohibiting" her return.
The parties demanding an election date, which now have in Caracas the winner of the 2023 opposition primary, and the 2015 Assembly delegation, which presents the return as a product of the talks.
Anyone counting on a transition negotiated only at the table: the leader whose party called the October 22 marches returns with no known formal guarantee, and whatever the government does or does not do about her is now public.
INDICADORWhether the prosecutor's office, the immigration service or the Supreme Court act on the measures against Machado, and whether Vente Venezuela joins the fourth round of talks. · Cuarta ronda del diálogo: del 11 al 15 de noviembre de 2026.
Eni said on Friday the 23rd, presenting its third-quarter accounts, that it will take the investment decision on phase 1 of Junín 5 once Caracas approves the plan, possibly in 2026.
Eni presented its third-quarter results on Friday the 23rd. On the call with analysts, the company said it has already submitted to Venezuelan authorities the development plan for Junín 5, the Orinoco Belt field whose new contractual regime it signed in September for 25 years. Once the plan is approved, it wants to quickly take the final investment decision on phase 1, which would add 200,000 gross barrels a day in 24 months, and said that could happen before year-end.
Eni — vía Motley Fool (transcripción) ↗Fase 1: 200.000 b/d brutos en 24 meses · potencial: 1 MMb/d brutos · contrato: 25 años, firmado en septiembre · recursos de Junín 5 y Perla: ~5.500 M bep recuperablesThe final investment decision commits the project's capital, and at Junín 5 it hinges on a Venezuelan act: approval of the plan. Eni estimates later phases would take the field to 1 million gross barrels a day. At Perla, its other agreement this year, it controls exports and revenue and pays royalties and taxes out of them; the Junín 5 terms are not public.
Eni, with its own Orinoco Belt output and a plan already submitted, and service companies: Halliburton told the SEC on Friday the 23rd that it re-established operations in Venezuela.
PDVSA as a seller: under the Perla arrangement it left exports and collection to Eni, and the state receives royalties and taxes the company pays out of that revenue.
INDICADORApproval of the Junín 5 development plan by the Hydrocarbons Ministry and Eni's announcement of the final investment decision. · Antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026, según Eni.
The IBC, the Caracas Stock Exchange index, closed on Friday the 23rd at 9,083.29 points, 8.72% below the week's open; on Friday alone it fell 4.40%.
The IBC, the main index of the Caracas Stock Exchange, opened the week at 9,950.70 points and closed it on Friday the 23rd at 9,083.29, a drop of 8.72% over five sessions. On Friday alone it fell 4.40%, with the financial index down 5.27% and the industrial index nearly flat. For the year, the IBC is up 336%. The most traded shares of the week were BNC, the exchange itself and Banco de Venezuela.
Bolsa de Valores de Caracas ↗Semana: −8,72% (de 9.950,70 a 9.083,29) · viernes 23: −4,40% · índice financiero: −5,27% · en el año: +336% · acciones negociadas: Bs 511 M (~US$577.000)Friday's drop was concentrated in banks: the financial index lost 5.27% and the industrial index just 0.06%. It is a small market: 511 million bolivars in shares changed hands during the week, about $577,000 at the official rate, against a market capitalization of about $16.8 billion. The same week saw Banco Provincial's 100-for-1 share exchange, which changes the price per share without changing the value of the company.
Buyers of listed banks after the drop —BNC, Banco de Venezuela and Provincial were among the most traded— and Protinal shareholders, whose stock rose 46.96% on the week ahead of its one-for-one stock dividend.
Holders of financial shares, who bore Friday's drop, and companies preparing issues on the exchange, which come to market with the index retreating.
INDICADORThe close of the financial index and the IBC in the first session after the bank holiday and on Friday the 30th, record date for Protinal's dividend. · Martes 27 y viernes 30 de octubre de 2026.
HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING
indicators we issued in earlier editionsOn October 23 we set a watch on the list of special taxpayers SENIAT would notify and the text of the comprehensive tax reform.
SENIAT published in Official Gazette 43,485, dated Thursday the 22nd, the order setting new criteria for special-taxpayer status, effective November 1; its superintendent, Román Maniglia, said more than 87,000 become ordinary taxpayers. Article 16 states that those already designated do not lose the status under the new rule, so exit runs through case-by-case revocation. The tax reform and the review of the tax on large financial transactions go to the National Assembly economy committee in the coming days.