WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • IMPUESTOS

    SENIAT cut its list of special taxpayers from more than 132,000 to 44,000 and left fiscal printers to the merchant’s choice.

    Especiales: >132.000 → 44.000 · providencia en la Gaceta 43.484, 21-oct · reforma tributaria: sin texto

    affects companies that withhold VAT and their suppliers

  • POLÍTICA

    The government and the 2015 National Assembly agreed to review four laws, including the one that lets the Comptroller bar politicians.

    Leyes en revisión: 4 · Contraloría: art. 105 · comisión conjunta por el oro de Londres · cuarta ronda: 11-15 nov

    affects parties with barred leaders and the central bank

  • GAS

    BP, XRG and UCC began surveying the seabed at Loran, the gas field Venezuela shares with Trinidad and Tobago.

    Campaña: 30-45 días · Fase II: ~4 billones de pies cúbicos recuperables · licencia: 13-ago · un tercio por socio

    affects BP, ADNOC and Shell, which holds Phase I

01MARKET PULSE · SEMANAKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$114.45
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
886.23
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$100-106
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$13.09B
PRODUCCIÓN · SEP
1.206M
bpd
INFLACIÓN · SEP
8.4%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

Three of the Venezuelan state’s cash sources moved this week, and only one is in Caracas’s hands without depending on another government. Brent closed on Thursday at its highest since May 4, but what PDVSA is paid for crude is deposited, under OFAC License 46E, into funds held by the US Treasury; the government’s chief negotiator, Jorge Rodríguez, said on Wednesday that the executive controls everything obtained from oil. The gold at the Bank of England, which the two delegations agreed to claim jointly, depends on whom London recognizes at the head of the central bank. Tax revenue is the state’s own cash, and the government is redesigning it with no text yet: the tax reform’s text will show who bears the adjustment.

02RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Impuestos · SENIATURGENTEMIXTOAnuncio del 21-oct y Gaceta 43.484

The acting president lifted on Wednesday the 21st the requirement to use fiscal printers and announced that the list of special taxpayers is now a third of what it was.

EVENTO

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced on Wednesday the 21st, at a meeting with the head of SENIAT, the tax administration, Román Maniglia, the immediate suspension of the requirement to use fiscal printers. A SENIAT order published in Official Gazette 43,484 that day lets taxpayers choose between digital means, authorized digital printers or a fiscal printer. Rodríguez also said that, after a review, 44,000 special taxpayers remain where there had been more than 132,000, and she announced a comprehensive tax reform, with no text or timetable.

Presidencia de Venezuela — vía VTV ↗Especiales: >132.000 → 44.000 · providencia del SENIAT: Gaceta 43.484, 21-oct · medios de facturación: digital, imprenta digital o máquina fiscal · IVA de los especiales: dos tramos por mes
VE Análisis

Special taxpayer status requires filing VAT, the income tax prepayment and the tax on large financial transactions in two installments a month and withholding part of the VAT suppliers invoice. Those who leave the list move to a monthly period and stop withholding. Conindustria, the manufacturers’ confederation, had proposed reviewing the assignment criteria and moving VAT filing from 15 to 30 days.

QUIÉN GANA

Suppliers to the companies leaving the list, which will collect their invoices with no VAT withheld, and those companies themselves, which file once a month and gain days of cash.

QUIÉN PIERDE

SENIAT’s short-term cash, which stops receiving VAT every two weeks from those who leave, and sellers of certified fiscal printers, which lose a mandatory requirement.

INDICADORThe list of special taxpayers SENIAT notifies and the text of the comprehensive tax reform. · Sin fecha anunciada para la reforma; primer corte de seguimiento el 13 de noviembre de 2026.

Política · DiálogoURGENTEMIXTOCierre del tercer ciclo de diálogo, 21

The dialogue delegations closed their third round on Wednesday the 21st with four laws under review, a joint commission for the gold held in London and another round from November 11 to 15.

EVENTO

The delegations of the government and of the National Assembly elected in 2015, which had an opposition majority, closed on Wednesday the 21st in Caracas the third round of the US-sponsored dialogue. In a statement signed by their heads, Jorge Rodríguez and Dinorah Figuera, they agreed to review four laws: the law on political parties and demonstrations, the Comptroller’s law as it relates to bans from office, the Simón Bolívar Law and the organized crime law, in its definition of terrorism. They also agreed on a joint delegation to seek from the United Kingdom the release of Venezuelan gold held in London.

Asamblea Nacional ↗Leyes en revisión: 4 · Contraloría: art. 105 · Ley Simón Bolívar (2024): hasta 60 años de inhabilitación · cuarta ronda: 11-15 nov · votación que pide Figuera: fines de 2027 o inicios de 2028
VE Análisis

Article 105 of the Comptroller’s law empowers the comptroller general to impose bans on holding public office, and the 2024 Simón Bolívar Law punishes anyone who promotes sanctions with bans of up to 60 years. The agreement provides for reviewing them; it does not say they will be repealed or that those barred will regain their rights. Neither a new electoral council nor an election date is in what was agreed; Figuera hopes for a vote between late 2027 and early 2028.

QUIÉN GANA

Politicians barred by the Comptroller, such as María Corina Machado: their ban enters the dialogue agenda in writing.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The Comptroller General’s office, whose power to bar politicians becomes subject to the review the two delegations agree on.

INDICADORThe text of the reforms or their arrival at the National Assembly, and a date to renew the electoral council. · Cuarto ciclo de conversaciones, del 11 al 15 de noviembre de 2026.

Gas · Costa afueraEN CURSOPOSITIVONota del 22-oct sobre la Fase II de Lorán

The Fugro Brasilis vessel arrived in the Plataforma Deltana on Thursday the 22nd so BP, XRG and UCC can survey the seabed of Loran Phase II for 30 to 45 days.

EVENTO

The Hydrocarbons Ministry said on Thursday the 22nd that, with the arrival of the vessel M.V. Fugro Brasilis, BP, XRG —the international investment arm of ADNOC, Abu Dhabi’s oil company— and UCC Oil and Gas Holding began studies for Phase II of the Loran field, in the Plataforma Deltana. For 30 to 45 days the vessel will collect seabed data to design the production platforms and pipelines. A ministry team will supervise on board.

Ministerio de Hidrocarburos ↗Buque: M.V. Fugro Brasilis · campaña: 30-45 días · licencia de la Fase II: 13-ago · socios: BP (operador), XRG y UCC, un tercio cada uno · gas recuperable de la Fase II: ~4 billones de pies cúbicos
VE Análisis

BP received the Phase II license on August 13, with a third for each partner and BP as operator, over some 4 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, according to the company. XRG’s participation remains subject to definitive agreements, approvals and sanctions compliance. BP plans to develop it in parallel with Phase I, held by Shell since June. Loran is the Venezuelan side of Loran-Manatee, which straddles the maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago.

QUIÉN GANA

BP, which moves from license to work at sea in ten weeks, and ADNOC, which enters Venezuelan offshore gas through XRG.

QUIÉN PIERDE

PDVSA, which is not among the three partners in the Phase II license.

INDICADORThe end of the Fugro Brasilis campaign and the submission of a development plan for Loran. · Entre el 21 de noviembre y el 6 de diciembre de 2026, al cumplirse los 30 a 45 días.

03THE FIGURE · WEEKKey number in context
Its score stood at 0.26 out of 1, less than 1% below 2025
143is Venezuela’s rank among the 143 countries in the World Justice Project’s 2026 Rule of Law Index: last

Venezuela’s position in the World Justice Project’s 2026 Rule of Law Index, which measures 143 countries through more than 215,000 household surveys and 3,400 surveys of practitioners and experts.

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

The World Justice Project published its 2026 index on Wednesday the 21st: Venezuela ranks 143rd of 143, with 0.26 out of 1, and 32nd of 32 in Latin America and the Caribbean. For anyone signing contracts in the country, the factor that weighs most is civil justice, where it scores 0.26. Within that factor, freedom from improper government influence scores 0.05, and effective enforcement, 0.18. These are the scores anyone deciding whether to submit a contract to Venezuelan courts or to arbitration abroad looks at.

IMPLICACIÓN POSITIVA

IMPLICACIÓN NEGATIVA

04OUTLOOK EDITORIALDel 24 al 30 de octubre de 2026
OUTLOOK EDITORIALMesa Editorial, Vene Economist
The question for next week is how much of the oil opening already shows up in the accounts of the companies operating in Venezuela. Maurel & Prom, PDVSA’s partner on Lake Maracaibo, gave an early answer on Thursday the 22nd: its 40% of Urdaneta Oeste produced 8,968 barrels a day in the third quarter, with three cargoes exported after sales resumed in June and drilling planned for 2027. The oil companies with the most weight in the country report their quarterly accounts in the following days, and what they say about Venezuela will be the first outside measure of the opening’s pace.
UNCERTAINTY
Medium
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
  • →Jueves 29 de octubre — Repsol reports quarterly results — a partner of Eni in Cardón IV gas and of PDVSA in Petroquiriquire, its report may show how much it produced and collected in the country
  • →Jueves 29 de octubre — Shell reports quarterly results — it holds Loran Phase I, the same accumulation BP began surveying, and the Dragon field license
  • →Viernes 30 de octubre — Chevron reports quarterly results — Mike Wirth said on September 11 that the $7 billion it will invest in Venezuela will come from the cash of its three joint ventures; the report shows how much that cash generates today
  • →The Judicial Nominations Committee publishes the timetable to elect Supreme Court justices — it will show whether the Supreme Court renewal fits in December, the deadline Washington set
05

HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING

indicators we issued in earlier editions
  • Openedition #151 · 2026-10-09

    On October 9 we set a watch on the second reading of the power reform that opens the grid to private companies, against the year-end deadline the acting president set.

    The National Assembly unanimously approved on Thursday the 22nd, on second reading, 13 articles of the reform of the Organic Law of the Electric System and Service. According to the official note, they define the service contract, disconnection for non-payment and the security deposit; the note does not mention concessions to private companies.

  • Confirmededition #159 · 2026-10-21

    On October 21 we set a watch on whether the National Assembly would appoint in plenary the 12 civilians of the Judicial Nominations Committee and install it, after two missed dates.

    The Assembly unanimously appointed on Thursday the 22nd the 12 civil-society members, chosen from the 85 of 127 nominees who passed the review, and swore them in. The committee is installed this Friday the 23rd and its first task is to set the timetable to elect Supreme Court justices.

VE Pulse · Close indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.