WHAT CHANGES TODAY
  • LEGAL

    A new attorney appeared for PDVSA in the Delaware docket auctioning Citgo's parent.

    Escrito 2686 del 8-sep-2026 · salida de tres abogados de Arnold & Porter el 11-may-2026 · venta autorizada y sin ejecutar

    affects anyone holding an award against the Republic or exposed to how the sale ends

  • MERCADOS

    The exchange published August: market cap up 48% in a year while equities barely trade.

    US$207,98 millones transados · US$2,39 millones en acciones · capitalización de US$13.093 millones

    affects Venezuelan companies that need to raise outside capital at home

  • ENERGÍA

    PDVSA stated how many people its output plan requires, beyond any headcount it has published.

    250 taladros · al menos 100.000 contrataciones · 1,3 millones de barriles diarios en diciembre

    affects service companies, metalworking shops and anyone modeling barrels without labor cost

01MARKET PULSE · HOYKey indicators · Integrated reading
BRENT CRUDE
$104.60
USD/bbl
TASA BCV
827.74
Bs/USD
MEREY EST.
~$91-97
USD/bbl
RESERVAS INT
$12.91B
PRODUCCIÓN · JUL
1.200M
bpd
INFLACIÓN · AUG
8.9%
m/m
POR QUÉ IMPORTAInteligencia propietaria

A notice of appearance makes no noise and decides more than an announcement. On Tuesday, filing 2686 in the Delaware docket recorded a Wilmington attorney for Petroleos de Venezuela, four months after that same record pulled three Arnold & Porter attorneys off the case. Whoever signs for the counterparty is whoever can settle, appeal or wait, and the sale the court authorized has still not closed. The rest of the week measures domestic capacity: the whole exchange capitalizes US$13.093 billion, one-eighth of what the oil plan says it will invest, and PDVSA put at 100,000 the hires it needs without saying where they would come from. The big asset is decided abroad; the two ledgers that would have to absorb it are at home, and they are small.

02THE FIGUREKey number in context
The unit that prices what could not be charged on Tuesday and the payroll the plan promises
827.74bolivars per dollar, official rate

VE Análisis · Inteligencia propietariaVE

This is the price at which the official system turns bolivars into dollars, and it is the unit of both ledgers this edition puts on the table. The shop left without a terminal on Tuesday collects in this currency, and the hires PDVSA projects will be paid in it too, while the plan's investment is stated in hard currency. That asymmetry decides what an oil wage is worth two years out and how much room a shop has to absorb an hour without collecting. August's price index printed 8.9% monthly, the year's second-lowest reading.

IMPLICACIÓN POSITIVA

IMPLICACIÓN NEGATIVA

03RADAR VE3 señales · Proprietary analysis
Riesgo país · Litigio y activos externosEN CURSOMIXTOEscrito 2686 del 8

A Wilmington attorney filed a notice of appearance for Petroleos de Venezuela in the Crystallex case on September 8, the same one where three Arnold & Porter co-counsel were pulled in May.

EVENTO

The Crystallex case against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, before Judge Leonard P. Stark in the federal court in Delaware under number 1:17-mc-00151, recorded on September 8 a notice of appearance by Mark M. Billion for Petroleos de Venezuela. Billion is the principal attorney at Billion Law, in Wilmington. On May 11 that same docket recorded a request to remove three attorneys of the U.S. firm Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer as co-counsel, with the stated reason that they were no longer involved in the case.

Tribunal de Distrito de Delaware — vía CourtListenerEscrito 2686 del expediente 1:17-mc-00151 · comparecencia por PDVSA el 8-sep-2026 · retiro de tres abogados de Arnold & Porter el 11-may-2026 · venta autorizada y sin ejecutar
VE Análisis

That docket is auctioning the shares PDVSA holds in PDV Holding, the company that is Citgo Petroleum's parent, to pay arbitral awards against the Republic. Whoever appears for PDVSA is whoever can settle, appeal or let a deadline run. The process remains under a special master whose monthly report the court approved on August 14, and the sale the judge authorized has still not closed. It is also circulating, attributed to unidentified sources, that the opposition-linked boards would wind down this month: that appears in no official act and does not enter here as fact.

QUIÉN GANA

Whoever litigates against the Republic: the appearance leaves PDVSA with active representation and no procedural gap.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Whoever modeled the sale's closing around the previous representation: the calendar's counterpart is no longer the same.

INDICADORwhether equivalent notices of appearance show up in the other dockets where the Republic and PDVSA are parties, and whether the U.S. Treasury issues the specific license enabling the share transfer · el maestro especial presenta informe mensual al tribunal de Delaware; el último que el juez aprobó cubre el período cerrado el 30 de junio

Macro · Mercado de capitalesURGENTEMIXTOResumen de mercado de agosto, publicado el 9

The whole Venezuelan exchange capitalizes US$13.093 billion and moved US$207.98 million in August, of which barely US$2.39 million were equities.

EVENTO

The Caracas Stock Exchange published its August figures on September 9. During the month Bs 156,714,313,135.40 changed hands, equal to US$207.98 million at the central bank's rate, 21.85% more than in July. The main index closed at 5,558.28 points, up 168.38% year to date. Of everything traded, equities accounted for US$2.39 million across 42,938 operations and fixed income for US$4.37 million. Market capitalization closed at US$13.093 billion, 48.34% above August 2025.

Bolsa de Valores de CaracasUS$207,98 millones transados en agosto (+21,85% mensual) · acciones por US$2,39 millones en 42.938 operaciones · capitalización de US$13.093 millones (+48,34% interanual)
VE Análisis

An exchange measures two different things: what listed companies are worth and how much of that changes hands. The first grew 48.34% in a year. The second stays thin, because of the US$207.98 million traded in August equities were US$2.39 million, and the month's ten most-traded securities are mostly banks and consumer manufacturing. Against that, the oil plan states US$100 billion of private investment over twenty-five years: the entire local market capitalizes one-eighth of that figure.

QUIÉN GANA

Bank issuers that concentrate the volume: Banco Provincial led the month's ten most-traded securities.

QUIÉN PIERDE

The Venezuelan company needing outside capital to ride the oil expansion: the market where it would raise it moved US$2.39 million in equities across all of August.

INDICADORwhether any issuer announces a primary equity or debt offering tied to the oil sector's supplier chain, and whether monthly traded volume holds August's pace · la bolsa publica su resumen mensual en los primeros días del mes siguiente; el de septiembre se conocerá a comienzos de octubre

Energía · Trabajo y serviciosEN CURSOMIXTOEntrevista del 8

PDVSA's executive vice president spelled out the plan's arithmetic on Tuesday: 250 rigs on three shifts, 60 workers per unit and at least 100,000 hires to close the year at 1.3 million barrels a day.

EVENTO

Jovanny Martinez, executive vice president of Petroleos de Venezuela, described on September 8 the deployment the official target requires: closing 2026 averaging 1.3 million barrels a day and reaching 1.5 million in 2027 across 17 fields covered by the bilateral agreements with the United States. Reactivating the projected 250 rigs, which run on three shifts with 60 workers per unit, calls for more than 50,000 operators dedicated to drilling alone and at least 70 floor hands per rig, the workers who handle pipe on the floor. The declared total is at least 100,000 hires.

PDVSA — vía teleSUR250 taladros en tres turnos · 60 trabajadores por equipo y al menos 70 cabilleros · más de 50.000 operarios de perforación · al menos 100.000 contrataciones · 1,2 millones de barriles diarios en julio
VE Análisis

The plan starts on the ground before it starts at the rig. Martinez put at 80% the share of the Orinoco Belt — the extra-heavy crude reserve in the country's east — that remains undeveloped, and acknowledged that roads, bridges and power lines have to be built there from scratch. That makes the first phase civil works, with a headcount PDVSA has not published. The starting reference is July output: 1.2 million barrels a day, 100,000 short of the December target.

QUIÉN GANA

Service companies and the local metalworking shops Martinez named as parts suppliers: civil works are contracted before the first barrel.

QUIÉN PIERDE

Anyone who modeled incremental barrels without labor or infrastructure cost: the operator has just put a magnitude on both lines.

INDICADORwhether the monthly output recorded by the exporting countries' organization approaches 1.3 million barrels a day before December, and whether PDVSA opens public hiring with stated terms · el informe mensual del mercado petrolero se publica alrededor del día 12 de cada mes; el dato de julio, el último disponible, marca 1,2 millones de barriles diarios

04

HOW OUR CALLS ARE DOING

indicators we issued in earlier editions
  • Confirmededition #126 · 2026-09-04

    On September 4 we set as indicator whether a committed megawatt figure with an in-service date would appear and whether the U.S. company would record the agreement in its own newsroom.

    The figure appeared, and a third party supplied it. That same September 4, one gigawatt in two years and five more gigawatts over the following four were circulated, attributed to GE Vernova in a note from the U.S. embassy in Caracas. The company's newsroom, downloaded on September 9, names Venezuela only in its country selector. Magnitude and horizon are on the record from the government pushing the deal, with nothing on the record from the party that has to install the equipment.

VE Pulse · Core indexes public-domain events and applies proprietary analysis; the content is produced through data processing with editorial review.