Repsol is no recent arrival: it already produces some 45,000 barrels a day in the country's west, which is why its signing to assess a new field weighs more than an ordinary memorandum —an operator with barrels in the ground doesn't study expanding unless it reads the regulatory framework as stable. But between ambition and the barrel lies distance: what was signed is a feasibility study, not an investment, and the goal of tripling output that the company stated in January is two to three years out. In the present, the real economy runs the other way: trade closed the half-year selling up to a quarter less and importing half as much, for lack of dollars. The thread is a gap between clocks —capital bets on the long term, the contraction is today's. Worth watching this week: whether the June 17 close of Supreme Court nominations moves toward an arbiter for these contracts, and whether OFAC again postpones —as is most likely— Friday's deadline on the CITGO shares.
↳ Venezuelan oil keeps drawing foreign capital —Repsol takes the latest step— but that recovery is written in the future tense and from abroad; the economy Venezuelans actually live, by contrast, is contracting now.
The BCV's international reserves closed the week of June 12 at around US$13.447 billion, up 4.5% from the prior week. The rebound coexists with reports of scarce dollar availability for banks and firms, which the private sector links to the fall in imports during the first half.
The figure is puzzling on its own: the central bank's reserves rose about 4.5% on the week, to roughly US$13.447 billion, their best level in months. But that sovereign cushion is not the currency the importer sees. The government piles up reserves and, at the same time, hands fewer dollars to banks and firms, so as not to loosen the anchor that keeps inflation low. Hence the paradox the trade sector lives: a country with more reserves that is, at once, importing half of what it used to. For the business owner the indicator is not the central bank's balance but how many dollars he can buy at the official rate to restock. Indicator: whether the BCV widens currency sales to the private sector or keeps prioritizing the defense of the exchange rate.
If higher reserves allow wider currency sales to the private sector, trade could restock and slow the fall in sales.
If the state keeps dollars rationed to hold the exchange rate, disinflation will keep being paid for with fewer imports and weaker consumption.
Repsol signed a letter of intent on June 16 with PDVSA and the Hydrocarbons Ministry to assess exploring the Horcón field, of light crude, southeast of Lake Maracaibo.
Spain's Repsol signed on June 16 in Caracas a letter of intent with PDVSA and the Hydrocarbons Ministry to analyze the feasibility of exploring and developing Horcón, a light-crude area southeast of Lake Maracaibo, in Trujillo state, adjacent to the Barúa and Motatán fields where it already operates through the Petroquiriquire joint venture. The document —signed by chairman Josu Jon Imaz alongside Delcy Rodríguez, Minister Paula Henao and PDVSA head Héctor Obregón— also envisions studies of gas deposits along the coast.
Repsol · PDVSA · MinH · vía Infobae ↗16-jun · acuerdo de intención Repsol–PDVSA–MinH · campo Horcón, crudo liviano, sur del Lago de Maracaibo · junto a Barúa y Motatán, mixta Petroquiriquire · firma del CEO Josu Jon Imaz · contexto: en enero la compañía declaró ante Trump querer triplicar a ~135.000 bpd (hoy ~45.000) · incluye estudios de gas en la costaRepsol is no newcomer: it already produces in western Venezuela, and that is why its move weighs differently than any exploration memorandum —when an operator with barrels on the ground signs to add another area, it reads the OFAC framework as durable. But what was signed is a letter of intent to study feasibility, not committed investment: the goal of tripling output to some 135,000 barrels a day is an aspiration the company's chairman voiced in January before Trump, not a figure in this agreement. For the investor, the value lies in who signs —one of Europe's majors— more than in what was signed. Indicator: the step from study to a contract with committed capital and a drilling schedule at Horcón.
Consecomercio reported that the first half closed with a brutal fall in consumption and imports —half of prior years— due to the scarcity of dollars the government provides.
The president of Consecomercio, Fernando Morgado, said on June 16 that the first half closed with a brutal fall in consumption and in imports, which dropped to about half of prior years. He blamed the deterioration on the insufficient supply of dollars the government delivers, which has pushed part of the business community into barter between firms; with that, prices rise and sales freeze. Regional chambers report sales declines of up to 25% so far this year.
Consecomercio (Fernando Morgado) ↗1er semestre 2026 · Consecomercio, Fernando Morgado · importaciones cerca de la mitad de años previos · ventas hasta -25% según cámaras regionales · causa: escasez de divisas oficiales · efecto: trueque entre empresas y ventas congeladasFor the shop owner, the contrast is the real headline: while a European oil major signs to add barrels, the economy he lives in imports half as much and sells less. The cause is the very dollar that sustains price stability —the exchange anchor that brought inflation to single digits rations the dollars trade needs to restock. It is the hidden cost of disinflation: a firmer bolívar paid for with softer domestic demand. The capital arriving at the top bets on years; the contraction at the bottom is this half-year. Indicator: whether the government releases to the private sector part of the currency it now concentrates, or consumption keeps giving way into the second half.
ITA Airways confirmed it expects to reopen the direct Rome–Caracas route in the second half of 2026; Venezuela and Italy are reviewing operational details, still without a date or frequency.
Italian carrier ITA Airways confirmed —through its chief executive, Joerg Eberhart, at the IATA general assembly in Rio de Janeiro— that it expects to reopen in the second half of 2026 the direct route between Rome and Caracas, one of the most profitable itineraries of the former Alitalia. Venezuela's deputy tourism minister, Nadia Mignogna, and the airline reviewed details this week, within the government's open-skies policy. The company has not yet specified a start date or frequency.
ITA Airways · Min. Turismo · vía RNV ↗2S-2026 previsto · ITA Airways · confirmado por el CEO Joerg Eberhart en la asamblea de la IATA · ruta directa Roma–Caracas, antiguo itinerario de Alitalia · interlocutora: viceministra de Turismo Nadia Mignogna · sin fecha ni frecuenciaAn air route does not move domestic output, but it measures something no energy memorandum captures: a European company's confidence that reconnecting Venezuela to the world is worth it. For the Italo-Venezuelan diaspora and the traveling business owner, the direct flight cuts the cost and time that today force layovers in third countries. Worth gauging is the distance between the announcement and takeoff: the airline confirmed the intent but not the date or the frequency, and an intercontinental route depends on permits, sustained demand and profitability. It is a sign of normalization, not yet a service. Indicator: the start date, the weekly frequency, and whether other European carriers follow.