June opens with three facts that read together. CASH — a May 28 PDVSA letter extended payment into a U.S. Treasury custodial account to aviation and marine fuel buyers; the mechanism has applied to crude since January and obliges Caracas to request authorization to use the funds. FLOW — oil shipments rose to 1.25 million barrels per day in May, the third consecutive monthly increase, with the United States as the first destination. INSTITUTIONS — the first trial over the oil-corruption scheme known as PDVSA-Crypto was suspended again when authorities failed to transfer all the defendants to court. The reading for the investor is not the volume, but the control of the revenue: exports rise, yet the share of hard currency Caracas manages freely narrows —the custody in force for crude since January now reaches fuel too— and the State leans more on a bolívar tax take that is modest measured in dollars. On the same plane, the judicial apparatus that must provide certainty to the new contracts cannot close the previous scandal. The productive recovery advances faster than the institutional capacity to manage it.
↳ Venezuelan oil flows at its highest pace in years, but the revenue is deposited under U.S. Treasury custody and reserves close May flat — the recovery is real; sovereignty over the cash is not.
SENIAT reported tax collection of Bs 486.163 billion in May 2026, delivered to the National Treasury. VAT contributed half the total. At the official exchange rate, the sum equals a figure on the order of US$885 million at May's close and near US$935 million at the month's average.
The figure must be read in dollars, not bolívars: the nominal amount grows mostly from the bolívar's depreciation, and converted it runs barely US$900 million for the month. It is the cash the State does control —domestic taxes in local currency— against the hard-currency oil revenue now deposited under Treasury custody. The contrast defines June's fiscal constraint: the government's discretionary spending depends on a tax take that is modest in real terms, while the bulk of the crude's hard currency stays outside its immediate reach. Indicator: June's collection measured in dollars and the weight of VAT against income tax.
If the formal tax base widens with the return of operators and import activity, dollar-measured collection could exceed US$1 billion a month and give the treasury its own cushion independent of the custodied oil revenue.
If the bolívar depreciates another 10% in June as in May, nominal collection will keep rising while its dollar value stalls or falls, compressing the State's real spending and its ability to sustain public wages.
A May 28 PDVSA letter orders its aviation and marine clients to pay for fuel in hard currency into a U.S. Treasury custodial account; the mechanism has applied to crude since January.
PDVSA's sales management notified its aviation and marine clients, in a May 28 letter, of the banking coordinates to pay in hard currency for JET A1, MGO and IFO 380 fuel into a U.S. Treasury Department custodial account. The scheme is not new: it has applied to Venezuelan crude revenue since January, when the Secretary of State described it and Caracas agreed to submit a monthly budget subject to authorization. The letter operationalizes it for fuel buyers.
PDVSA · MinH · OFAC·Tesoro EE.UU. ↗Carta PDVSA · 28-may-2026 · gerencia de ventas (Vicepresidencia de Comercio y Suministro Nacional) · combustibles JET A1 · MGO · IFO 380 · pago en divisas a cuenta de custodia del Tesoro EE.UU. · mecanismo vigente para el crudo desde enero · presupuesto mensual sujeto a autorizaciónFor the investor, the new fact is not the custody —in force since January for crude— but its documented extension to fuel buyers. With the letter, the last hard-currency flow that reached PDVSA directly is also channeled into an account Caracas does not administer. The upside: an account protected by executive order gives airlines and shippers certainty of payment and shields them from creditor claims. The downside: the Venezuelan government loses access to another portion of its hard-currency revenue, which ties reserves and currency intervention to a calendar of external approvals.
Venezuelan crude shipments rose to 1.25 million barrels per day in May, a third straight monthly gain and a multi-year high, with the United States as the first destination and independent traders ahead of Chevron.
Venezuelan crude and fuel shipments averaged 1.25 million barrels per day in May, according to vessel-tracking data — the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest level in years. The United States led destinations with some 558 thousand barrels per day. India and Europe followed, with 427 thousand and 169 thousand respectively. Chevron's volumes fell to 269 thousand barrels per day from 308 thousand in April. Traders such as Vitol and Trafigura raised their shipments to 787 thousand.
Reuters · Kpler · seguimiento marítimo ↗Exportaciones mayo 1,25 MM bpd · tercer mes al alza · EE.UU. 558 kbpd (primer destino) · India 427 kbpd · Europa 169 kbpd · Chevron 269 kbpd (−39 vs abril) · Vitol + Trafigura 787 kbpd · datos de seguimiento marítimoThe figure that orders the reading is not the total, but who moves the barrels. That independent traders surpass Chevron shows the export recovery no longer depends on a single license or a single operator: it diversified toward global intermediaries placing crude in Asia at a discount. For Venezuela that means more resilient revenue against isolated regulatory shifts, but also less traceability and margins compressed by the Merey discount. Combined with the Treasury's custody over the cash, the country exports more and retains less. Indicator: OPEC's monthly report on June 13 with May output, and whether the flow to India holds above 450 thousand barrels per day.
The PDVSA-Crypto hearing was suspended again on Monday after authorities failed to transfer all defendants. The defense teams are seeking to annul the case against 64 accused over procedural flaws.
The first trial over the PDVSA-Crypto scheme was suspended again in Caracas: authorities did not transfer all the defendants to court, and only those held by the Sebin appeared. Former minister and oil czar Tareck El Aissami, the principal defendant, declared a hunger strike days earlier. The defense teams for the 64 accused requested the absolute annulment of the case over missing signatures on records and the elimination of the preliminary hearing.
Ministerio Público · TSJ · defensas PDVSA-Cripto ↗Juicio PDVSA-Cripto suspendido · lunes 1-jun · solo trasladados los acusados del Sebin · Tareck El Aissami en huelga de hambre · 64 imputados · nulidad solicitada por falta de firmas y sin audiencia preliminar · daño estimado Fiscalía >US$5.000M · Transparencia Venezuela >US$16.000MFor anyone weighing the return of private capital, the case matters less for the amount embezzled than for what it reveals about the apparatus that will arbitrate the new contracts. The same judicial system being reorganized to appoint the justices who will decide arbitrations under the reformed hydrocarbons law cannot sustain a hearing or guarantee the transfer of the accused. The signal of legal certainty is weak just as the large international operators negotiate durable contractual terms. A case voidable over procedural flaws sets a precedent of institutional fragility that weighs on the country-risk premium. Indicator: the new hearing date and whether the court cures the nullities; the close of nominations to the high court on June 6.