- ENERGÍA
The U.S. president receives refiners and fuel distributors this afternoon to look for ways to expand capacity, four days after announcing the oil deal with Venezuela.
Utilización de 97,0% en la Costa del Golfo · sin bajar de 96,7% desde el 17-jul · crudo venezolano a EE. UU.: 231 kb/d en febrero y 471 kb/d en mayo
affects anyone who projected Merey realization prices assuming the U.S. buyer absorbs the additional volume
- LOGÍSTICA
The customs superintendent presented his La Guaira inspection as a sustained reactivation, and in the same video the port manager puts intake above clearances.
Hasta 500 contenedores despachados al día · recepción de 500 a 1.000 desde los buques · operación bajo contingencia desde el sismo del 24 de junio
affects the importer with freight paid and inventory stuck on the yard, and retailers building year-end stock
- MONEDA
The economist who drafted the dollarization bill with congressman Ecarri said he delivered it to the White House at the U.S. administration's request.
Probabilidad de dolarización que estima su autor, entre 50% y 80% · el tipo oficial subió 6,5% en agosto frente a 19,8% en julio · índice de precios de julio, 19,9%
affects anyone holding balances, contracts or payroll in bolívares, and the bank whose business depends on the currency continuing to exist
Friday's announcement put more than 65 billion barrels on the U.S. side of the table, and this afternoon the U.S. president receives refiners and distributors. Between the two sits a constraint Caracas does not decide: the refineries able to process that crude run at the limit of what is installed. A barrel with no plant to process it neither lowers the pump price nor improves what the producer collects, and that weighs more today than any reserve figure. At La Guaira the port takes in more containers than it clears, and the difference turns into storage the importer pays. The bolívar, which in July slid at the pace of prices, slowed in August to a third, and the bill to replace it with the dollar has just reached the White House.
The entire bolívar money supply is worth about US$3.241 billion and the central bank's reserves total US$13.056 billion.
The argument for formal dollarization is that the central bank has the means to swap out the bolívares in circulation. The arithmetic backs it on the easy part: at the official rate, the entire bolívar money supply is worth about US$3.241 billion, four times less than declared reserves. What that sum does not cover are the deposits banks owe and do not hold in cash, nor the public spending currently closed by issuance. Swapping the currency is a cash operation. Sustaining it without issuance is a permanent fiscal constraint, and that is the part no reserve buys.
Gulf Coast plants posted 97.0% utilization in the week to August 21. The U.S. president receives refiners and distributors this afternoon to talk about capacity.
The White House said in a written statement that this afternoon's meeting will address how to increase refining capacity, expand production across the supply chain and lower consumer prices. Attending are Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Energy Dominance Council Executive Director Jarrod Agen, alongside small, medium and large refiners and distributors. The time and the guest list came from an official who asked not to be identified because the meeting has not been announced.
EIA — agencia de información energética de EE. UU. ↗Utilización de 97,0% en la Costa del Golfo · sin bajar de 96,7% desde el 17-jul · crudo venezolano a EE. UU.: 231 kb/d en febrero y 471 kb/d en mayo · unos 5 MM b/d de capacidad global paradaVenezuelan crude is heavy and sour, and the refineries configured to process it cluster on the Gulf Coast. U.S. imports of that crude went from 231,000 barrels a day in February to 471,000 in May, per the U.S. energy agency. Those plants have not dropped below 96.7% utilization since July 17, and global capacity idled by the Iran and Ukraine wars runs near 5 million barrels a day on Valero's estimate. With no spare plant, volume does not become product.
The Gulf Coast refiner with available coking units, buying heavy barrels at a discount and selling product into a capacity-short market.
Anyone who projected Merey realization prices assuming the U.S. buyer absorbs any additional volume, and the American driver who was promised relief at the pump.
INDICADORwhether the White House announces concrete capacity measures after the meeting, and whether Gulf Coast utilization eases as autumn maintenance begins · el informe semanal de petróleo de la agencia energética estadounidense sale el miércoles 2 de septiembre, con la semana al 28 de agosto
The customs superintendent posted his inspection of the port as a sustained reactivation. In the same video the general manager puts clearances at 500 containers a day and intake at 500 to 1,000.
Román Maniglia, superintendent of the customs and tax service, posted yesterday that he had inspected port and customs activity at La Guaira and verified a progressive, fast and sustained reactivation of import and goods-reception processes. In the video attached to that post, the port's general manager, Danny Salazar, says they clear up to 500 containers a day, receive an average of 500 to 1,000 from ships and have not stopped since operations began. Cipriana Ramos, of the La Guaira Chamber of Commerce, asks him there for more direct releases.
SENIAT — Román Maniglia ↗Hasta 500 contenedores despachados al día · recepción de 500 a 1.000 desde los buques · operación bajo contingencia desde el sismo del 24 de junioThe two figures do not measure the same thing. One is what the port can move out and the other what comes in, and while the second is larger the difference stays on the yard. Every day on the yard is storage, paid by whoever imported. La Guaira is the port that supplies Caracas and has operated under contingency since the June 24 earthquake. The direct release the chamber asks for skips the warehouse, but it is decided at customs, not on the dock.
The warehouse and the bonded depot, which charge for every day the container does not leave.
The importer who already paid freight and sees inventory stuck on the yard, and retailers building stock for the year-end season.
INDICADORwhether customs enables more direct release and whether the gap between what the port receives and what it clears closes · la carga de fin de año entra entre septiembre y octubre; el gremio hizo la petición el 31 de agosto
Steve Hanke said yesterday he delivered to the White House the dollarization bill he drafted with congressman Antonio Ecarri, and that he did so at the U.S. administration's request.
"They requested that I present them with a plan and I have given it to them," the Johns Hopkins economist said in an interview released on August 31. Hanke also advises the U.S. administration's Grand Dollar Strategy, and puts the odds of Venezuela formally adopting the currency at between 50% and 80%. The Parliament's presidency had already removed Ecarri in August for proposing that substitution, invoking in writing Article 318 of the Constitution, which declares the bolívar the Republic's monetary unit.
Steve Hanke — vía La Patilla ↗Tipo oficial de Bs 746,63 a Bs 794,99 en agosto, 6,5% · de Bs 623,02 a Bs 746,63 en julio, 19,8% · índice de precios de julio, 19,9% · probabilidad de dolarización que estima su autor, entre 50% y 80%The official rate rose 19.8% in July, nearly the same step as prices, which advanced 19.9%. In August it rose 6.5%. If the August index lands near July's, the bolívar will have grown more expensive in real terms. That slowdown runs on the currency whose replacement has just entered the White House as draft legislation.
The dollar holder inside Venezuela, and anyone able to defer bolívar commitments while the official rate rises more slowly than prices.
The producer competing against imports with a bolívar growing more expensive in real terms, and the bank whose bolívar business depends on the currency continuing to exist.
INDICADORwhether any U.S. authority mentions the bill in an act of its own, and whether the August price index approaches July's 19.9% · el índice de precios de agosto se publica a mediados de septiembre; el de julio salió el 12 de agosto