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VENE · ECONOMISTINTELLIGENCE UNIT · SECTOR BRIEF
VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM · August 2026 · SECTOR BRIEF

Venezuela upstream August 2026: the framework stopped being the question and the rate now decides

The Ministry of Hydrocarbons denied an extension of the contract migration deadline. Chevron declared 280,000 bpd in its joint ventures and confirmed it is negotiating fiscal terms. The United States absorbed ~786,000 bpd in July, the highest since early 2019.

FAVORABLE · Stable perspectiveAugust 25, 2026

For four months the Venezuelan upstream debate turned on whether a framework would exist. That question closed on July 7, when the Regulation of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law took effect through Extraordinary Official Gazette 7,052. What August opens is a different question, and a more uncomfortable one to model: how much each project pays. On July 31, on the second-quarter earnings call, Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth stated that the company is negotiating better fiscal terms in Venezuela to enable further investment. It is the first time the country's largest foreign operator has stated publicly that the binding constraint is no longer the U.S. authorization — which it holds — nor the legal framework — which is published — but the rate applied to it.

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Classification
Sector Brief · VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM
August 2026 · Monthly edition
Sector Verdict
FAVORABLE · Stable perspective
Next review: September 2026
Editorial product
Sector Brief — Recurring structural knowledge. Distinct from Analysis (ad-hoc per event) and VE Score (quantitative rating).

FURTHER READING

04
VE PULSE · 25-AUG-2026

Money paid up front for a Venezuelan home stops passing through the builder's hands

Until now the developer took the buyer's down payment and put it to work. The text passed on Friday routes it into a trust that releases funds only against construction progress certified by an independent engineer.

SECTOR BRIEF · VE-ENERGY

Venezuela refining August 2026: the country produces as in 2019 and converts at a quarter of capacity

The country produces crude at seven-year highs and refines at a quarter of installed capacity. Art. 43 of the Regulation grants up to −5 points of the rate to projects with integrated upgrading or refining: the only incentive aimed at that gap.

OFAC · GL 46C

GL 46C — Trade in Venezuelan-Origin Oil and Petrochemical Products

Authorizes an established U.S. entity to lift, export, sell, store, transport and refine Venezuelan-origin oil —and to import Venezuelan-origin petrochemical products into the U.S.— in transactions involving the Government of Venezuela and PdVSA, subject to U.S./allied law and forum and Treasury payment routing. Supersedes GL 46B.

ANÁLISIS · SECTORES · VIVIENDA Y FINANCIAMIENTO

Venezuela's housing law: who funds the build if the down payment goes into a trust

The law enacted on August 25, 2026 takes the buyer's down payment off the developer's balance sheet and releases it only against certified work and complete permits. The Venezuela Renace program subsidy already runs through three state banks, but it pays for finished homes on the secondary market.

VENE · ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit · Informational analysis. Does not constitute investment advice.
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