June advances and the question of who answers Venezuela's opening gets a foundational answer. SECURITY — General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the highest-ranking U.S. soldier, landed in Caracas on June 3, his first visit, and committed the Joint Force to Washington's three-phase plan: stabilization, economic recovery and democratic transition. CAPITAL — a Nasdaq acquisition vehicle, Lionheart Capital, lines up as much as US$2.25 billion for the energy sector, financed by a brokerage; the deal hinges on permits from Caracas and Washington. INSTITUTIONS — the PDVSA-Crypto trial stays without progress: the judge issues no decisions and six defendants collapsed on hunger strike. The reading for the investor is that U.S. military backing is now the real floor of the investment thesis —it lowers reversal risk—, but it also makes visible that Washington directs the transition. The capital arriving is financial and speculative, not operational; and the judicial apparatus that should give certainty to contracts cannot close the previous scandal. External security and capital rise faster than the country's own institutions.
↳ Venezuela's transition gains its strongest guarantee —the highest-ranking U.S. soldier in Caracas— and draws capital, but the money answering is still speculative and the institutions that should sustain it still do not work.
The bolívar depreciated by about 45% against the official dollar so far in 2026, per the Central Bank's exchange rate. It went from Bs 301.37 on January 1 to Bs 549.37 at May's close. In May alone the currency lost 10.8% of its value; accumulated inflation between January and April ran near 90%.
The figure puts the disinflation 'good news' in perspective: even as monthly inflation eases, the currency lost almost half its value in five months and the year's accumulated inflation runs near 90%. What does it mean for anyone operating in Venezuela? That planning in bolívars remains unworkable: importers and business owners set prices and funding in dollars and adjust daily to the official rate. The stability the Central Bank sustains with intervention —US$1.7 billion in June— slows the pace, it does not reverse the loss. For the investor weighing entry, the signal is that the exchange-rate anchor is costly and not yet structural. Indicator: June's devaluation and whether the monthly pace drops below May's sustained 10%.
If the intervention manages to bring the monthly devaluation down to single digits in a sustained way, the bolívar would stabilize for the first time this year and give firms and households a more predictable price horizon.
If June repeats a double-digit devaluation, the exchange-rate anchor grows costlier and the recent disinflation reverses, eroding a purchasing power that already fell by almost half this year.
Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the top U.S. military officer, landed in Caracas on June 3 —his first visit— and committed the Joint Force to Washington's three-phase plan for Venezuela.
Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, landed on June 3 at the Maiquetía airport for his first visit to Venezuela. He held bilateral meetings with senior leaders of the interim government and with the leadership of the U.S. Embassy in Caracas. According to the official readout, he stressed Venezuelan stability and shared hemispheric security, and committed the Joint Force to the three-phase plan of the President of the United States: stabilization, economic recovery and reconciliation, and democratic transition.
Estado Mayor Conjunto · EE.UU. ↗Gen. Dan Caine (jefe del Estado Mayor Conjunto, militar de mayor rango de EE.UU.) · primera visita a Caracas, 3-jun · reuniones bilaterales con altos cargos del gobierno interino y la embajada de EE.UU. · plan de tres fases: estabilización · recuperación económica y reconciliación · transición democrática · compromiso de la Fuerza Conjunta con su implementaciónFor the investor, this is the signal that holds up all the others: U.S. military backing lowers the risk that the transition reverses, and that security floor is what makes investing in Venezuelan assets thinkable. But the flip side is worth seeing: that Washington's top soldier guarantees a plan 'designed by the President of the United States' makes it explicit that the roadmap is external, not sovereign. What does Venezuela give —in politics, resources or command— in exchange for that guarantee? For whoever weighs entry it is the best policy against an abrupt turn; for the country, it ties its stability to the continuity of U.S. policy. Indicator: whether the visit yields a public timeline for the three phases or security-cooperation agreements.
Lionheart Capital's Nasdaq-listed acquisition vehicle is lining up as much as US$2.25 billion for Venezuelan energy and is in talks to buy oil fields for US$150-400 million, with US$1.5 billion from brokerage Clear Street; it still needs approval from Caracas and Washington.
Lionheart Capital's Nasdaq-listed acquisition vehicle is lining up as much as US$2.25 billion to invest in Venezuela's energy sector, as reported on June 3. It is negotiating to buy oil fields for between US$150 and US$400 million. New York brokerage Clear Street would provide US$1.5 billion for the acquisitions and the rehabilitation; the rest would come from its own funds and bank financing. The deals are not final and require regulatory approval from Caracas and Washington.
Lionheart Capital · Clear Street · Bloomberg ↗SPAC de Lionheart Capital (Nasdaq) · hasta US$2.250M para energía venezolana · compra de campos por US$150-400M · Clear Street aporta US$1.500M · resto: fondos propios + financiamiento bancario · sujeto a aval de OFAC/Caracas · operación no definitiva · reportado 3-junWhat matters is not the amount, but who puts it up. The first big check after the opening comes not from an oil major with operating experience, but from a Nasdaq financial vehicle backed by a brokerage: capital that buys distressed assets cheap to resell them or produce with third parties. For Venezuela it is validation —someone puts a number and a timeline on the opportunity—, but it also signals the profile of investor the current risk attracts: tolerant of shifting sanctions and uncertain jurisdiction, not long-term. The announcement itself conditions everything on permits from Caracas and Washington. Indicator: whether the deal clears regulatory approval and whether an operator with a technical track record follows the speculative capital.
The PDVSA-Crypto trial, opened on April 20, records no decisions from the judge; six defendants collapsed after a hunger strike and a rumor about one detainee circulated and was denied.
The trial over the PDVSA-Crypto case, the country's largest oil-corruption scheme, remains without progress in Caracas: judge Alejandra Romero Castillo has made no decisions on any of the detainees since the process began on April 20. Six defendants collapsed after starting a hunger strike, and a rumor about the revocation of one defendant's house arrest was denied. Hearings have been suspended over the failure to transfer the 64 accused.
Tribunal 3° · MP · El Nacional ↗Juicio PDVSA-Cripto · iniciado 20-abr · 64 imputados (Tareck El Aissami, Simón Zerpa, Hugbel Roa) · jueza Alejandra Romero Castillo sin decisiones sobre los detenidos · seis acusados descompensados tras huelga de hambre (3-jun) · rumor sobre De Grazia desmentido · daño Fiscalía >US$5.000MThe contrast orders the reading: while U.S. power (a general) and capital (a SPAC) move in, the system that should give them certainty cannot move its emblematic case. What confidence can a tribunal that in six weeks decides not even a transfer offer a long-term oil contract? The opacity —suspended hearings, hunger strikes, rumors that must be denied— is the real risk signal, more than the amount embezzled. For the investor weighing the Orinoco Belt, the question is not whether there is opportunity, but whether there will be a credible forum when a dispute arises. Indicator: the judge's first substantive decision and whether the court guarantees the transfer of the accused.