VENEECONOMIST
VENE · ECONOMISTINTELLIGENCE UNIT · SECTOR BRIEF
VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM · April 2026 · SECTOR BRIEF

Production crosses 1 million bpd and majors sign: upstream closes Q1 with complete framework and binding power ceiling

VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM April 2026 brief. Hydrocarbons reform passed (Jan 29), OFAC GL 52 (Mar 18), formal returns from Eni, Repsol and Chevron in April. Production 1.095M bpd, exports >1M for the first time in 6 months. India overtakes China as top buyer at 343K bpd. Revenues channeled to U.S. Treasury custody via EO 14373. The binding ceiling remains electrical (covered in VE-ENERGY-DOMESTICO).

FAVORABLE · Favorable perspectiveApril 30, 2026

Abril cierra con el momentum upstream más fuerte en seis años. La cadena de hitos: Reforma de la Ley Orgánica de Hidrocarburos sancionada el 29-ene; GL 52 OFAC el 18-mar (autorización amplia para entidades estadounidenses establecidas pre-29-ene-2025); GL 56 + GL 57 OFAC el 14-abr; IMF/WB/BID re-engagement 17-abr en Spring Meetings; cinco majors con contratos formales en abril (Chevron 13, Repsol 16, Eni y BP el 29). Visita Jarrod Agen (Casa Blanca · National Energy Dominance Council) a Caracas el 30-abr en el primer vuelo directo American Airlines Miami-Caracas reabierto tras siete años de pausa.

La producción PDVSA cerró marzo en torno a 1,1 millones de barriles por día según OPEP. El Brent settled el 30-abr en $113,77 con sesión intradía amplia por escalada EE.UU.-Irán y tensiones sobre el Estrecho de Ormuz; el Merey calculado como Brent −$10,50 cotiza en $103,18, un spread más comprimido que en trimestres previos. La refinación interna sigue siendo el cuello operativo: 31% de operatividad en abril limita la conversión de crudo a productos refinados y compone el techo eléctrico que cubre el brief complementario VE-ENERGY-DOMÉSTICO.

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Classification
Sector Brief · VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM
April 2026 · Monthly edition
Sector Verdict
FAVORABLE · Favorable perspective
Next review: May 2026
Editorial product
Sector Brief — Recurring structural knowledge. Distinct from Analysis (ad-hoc per event) and VE Score (quantitative rating).

FURTHER READING

04
VE PULSE · 27-JUL-2026

No extension: on Tuesday each oil company decides whether the new fiscal regime pencils out

With the deadline firm, migrating turns from paperwork into arithmetic: at 20% to 35% by field type, each operator decides whether the return holds or keeps its rights without the fiscal benefit.

SECTOR BRIEF · VE-ENERGY-UPSTREAM

Venezuela Upstream July 2026: LOH Regulation drops PDVSA (Gaceta 7,052), Repsol signs Horcón MoU, OFAC amends GL 46C-54A, Brent normalizes to $81

The first comprehensive Hydrocarbons Law regulation since 1943 opens upstream to privates without a mandatory joint venture; the VE Score eases from 94 to 84 on Brent's correction (May $104 → July $81), not regulatory deterioration.

OFAC · GL 46C

GL 46C — Trade in Venezuelan-Origin Oil and Petrochemical Products

Authorizes an established U.S. entity to lift, export, sell, store, transport and refine Venezuelan-origin oil —and to import Venezuelan-origin petrochemical products into the U.S.— in transactions involving the Government of Venezuela and PdVSA, subject to U.S./allied law and forum and Treasury payment routing. Supersedes GL 46B.

ANÁLISIS · ENERGÍA · SANCIONES Y ELEGIBILIDAD

OFAC eligibility in Venezuela: who lends the permit to sign with PDVSA

A Canadian oil company set out on August 24 the six steps it took to enter Venezuelan crude: a U.S. subsidiary, registration with the investment agency, exclusivities, data packages and a field visit. Five it took alone. For the sixth it states that it partners "with entities benefiting from the updated U.S. sanctions regime."

VENE · ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit · Informational analysis. Does not constitute investment advice.
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