VENEECONOMIST
Analysis Type D — Risk · MARCH 25, 2026

Three Scenarios for Venezuela H2 2026: What Happens if Reforms Accelerate, Stall, or Collapse

Three months after Maduro's capture, Venezuela has produced more legal reforms than in the past decade. But oil majors call them inadequate, productivity is the hemisphere's lowest, and PDVSA's debt has no restructuring plan. This analysis evaluates three possible paths for the second half — and what each means for investors.

Published March 25, 2026

Rodríguez deepens reforms under pressure from Washington and the majors. The fiscal regime is reconfigured to be competitive. Mining opens with the law approved. Debt enters structured negotiation.

The most likely scenario. Rodríguez makes cosmetic adjustments but doesn't fundamentally reform the fiscal regime. OFAC licenses remain but majors don't scale. Production grows marginally. Debt stays unresolved. The opening is real but slow.

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Classification
Analysis Type D — Risk
Perspectives & Scenarios
March 25, 2026
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VENE · ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit · Informational analysis. Does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Vene Economist is not a credit rating agency; the "VE Verdict" is a proprietary editorial indicator, not a credit rating. Always verify against the primary source before making decisions.

Topics

PDVSAInflation & FX

FURTHER READING

04
VE PULSE · 08-OCT-2026

Pacific Coast Energy promises to double crude output at two PDVSA blocks claimed by former partners

On July 30 the company said it was finalizing the contracts; on October 7 it confirmed it runs both blocks with full operational control. Its release mentions no OFAC license and none of the partners claiming the fields.

ANÁLISIS · FINANZAS PÚBLICAS · RECAUDACIÓN TRIBUTARIA

SENIAT: Venezuela collects 37.6% more in dollars and 25.8% more in real terms

SENIAT reported $1.198 billion in September 2026, converted at the central bank's official rate, which rose less than inflation. Deflated by the consumer price index, the increase is 25.8%. March was the year's peak, April and July were not published, and it is not on record whether the totals include oil taxes that OFAC sends to the Treasury fund.

SECTOR BRIEF · VE-MACRO

Venezuela macro August 2026: the slide moderates and the accounts remain unaudited

The official rate rose 19.84% in July, but in August the slide eases to 5.09%. The central bank reported 7.14% growth in the second quarter and the Fund projects 4% for the year: nothing available today arbitrates between the two figures.

OFAC · GL 48D

GL 48D — Supply of Goods and Services to Venezuela

Authorizes the supply from the U.S. or by a U.S. person of goods, technology, software or services for oil, gas and petrochemical exploration, development and production —including maintenance and repair of equipment—, and for electricity generation, transmission, storage and distribution in Venezuela. As of September 28, 2026, the petrochemical annex lists methanol. The formation of new joint ventures remains outside the license. Supersedes GL 48C.