VENEECONOMIST
Analysis Type D — Risk · MARCH 25, 2026

Three Scenarios for Venezuela H2 2026: What Happens if Reforms Accelerate, Stall, or Collapse

Three months after Maduro's capture, Venezuela has produced more legal reforms than in the past decade. But oil majors call them inadequate, productivity is the hemisphere's lowest, and PDVSA's debt has no restructuring plan. This analysis evaluates three possible paths for the second half — and what each means for investors.

Published March 25, 2026

Rodríguez deepens reforms under pressure from Washington and the majors. The fiscal regime is reconfigured to be competitive. Mining opens with the law approved. Debt enters structured negotiation.

The most likely scenario. Rodríguez makes cosmetic adjustments but doesn't fundamentally reform the fiscal regime. OFAC licenses remain but majors don't scale. Production grows marginally. Debt stays unresolved. The opening is real but slow.

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Classification
Analysis Type D — Risk
Perspectives & Scenarios
March 25, 2026
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VENE · ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit · Informational analysis. Does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Vene Economist is not a credit rating agency; the "VE Verdict" is a proprietary editorial indicator, not a credit rating. Always verify against the primary source before making decisions.

Topics

PDVSAInflation & FX

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OFAC · GL 62

GL 62 — Negotiations of and Entry Into Contingent Contracts for Investment in the Telecommunications Sector of Venezuela

Authorizes transactions prohibited by the VSR — including those involving the Government of Venezuela, CONATEL, and CANTV — related to the negotiation of and entry into contingent contracts for new investment in the telecommunications sector of Venezuela, provided that performance of any such contract is made expressly contingent upon separate authorization from OFAC. Covers establishing new telecommunication service providers, expanding existing operations, and forming new joint ventures or other entities, along with prefatory steps such as commercial, legal, technical, safety, and environmental due diligence and assessments. No periodic reporting and no expiration date.