VENEECONOMIST
Analysis Type D — Risk · MARCH 25, 2026

Three Scenarios for Venezuela H2 2026: What Happens if Reforms Accelerate, Stall, or Collapse

Verdict: UNDER OBSERVATION · Favorable outlook. Three months after Maduro's capture, Venezuela has produced more legal reforms than in the past decade. But oil majors call them inadequate, productivity is the hemisphere's lowest, and PDVSA's debt has no restructuring plan. This analysis evaluates three possible paths for the second half — and what each means for investors.

Published March 25, 2026

Rodríguez deepens reforms under pressure from Washington and the majors. The fiscal regime is reconfigured to be competitive. Mining opens with the law approved. Debt enters structured negotiation.

The most likely scenario. Rodríguez makes cosmetic adjustments but doesn't fundamentally reform the fiscal regime. OFAC licenses remain but majors don't scale. Production grows marginally. Debt stays unresolved. The opening is real but slow.

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Classification
Analysis Type D — Risk
Perspectives & Scenarios
March 25, 2026
VENE · ECONOMIST Intelligence Unit · Informational analysis. Does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Vene Economist is not a credit rating agency; the "VE Verdict" is a proprietary editorial indicator, not a credit rating. Always verify against the primary source before making decisions.
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Topics

PDVSAInflation & FX

FURTHER READING

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Fiscal Sovereignty in Custody: Who Signs Off on Every Dollar of Venezuelan Oil

Since Executive Order 14373, Venezuela’s oil revenue flows into accounts custodied by the U.S. Treasury and is spent through a monthly budget approved by the State Department. Some ~US$8 billion moved in four months, with audits announced but unpublished. For the investor, the double lock is both a guarantee —less revenue diversion— and a risk —State discretion, opacity and Washington politics— in the same mechanism.

OFAC · GL 60

GL 60 — Earthquake Relief Efforts (through October 23, 2026)

Authorizes, through 12:01 a.m. eastern time on October 23, 2026, transactions ordinarily incident and necessary to earthquake-relief efforts following the June 24, 2026 earthquake in Venezuela that would otherwise be prohibited by the Venezuela Sanctions Regulations (31 CFR part 591), including those involving the Government of Venezuela and SDNs sanctioned under the executive orders incorporated into the VSR. Note 1 covers the processing and transfer of funds on behalf of third-country persons in support of relief and lets U.S. financial institutions and money transmitters rely on the originator to establish compliance. Does not unblock blocked property and does not cover ordinary activity (routine remittances, general commerce).