Venezuela's oil on the campaign trail: what is real and legal in Trump's "gift"

On October 27, at a rally at the Port of Corpus Christi, Texas, Donald Trump pointed to a tanker docked near the stage. "It's got one million barrels of oil on it from Venezuela," he said. That day he called it a gift and the spoils of war and, at the same rally, proposed turning Venezuela into the 51st state. The U.S. midterm elections were a week away.

Each of those phrases raises a question. These are the answers, documents in hand.

1. Was it a campaign event?

Yes, and there is no need to guess: the setting and his own words say so.

The ship was not presented at an Energy Department briefing. It was presented at a midterm campaign rally, where Trump asked people to vote for the governor of Texas, his lieutenant governor and the Republican candidates for Congress. In the same speech he said lower drug prices "alone should win us the midterms." And he got ahead of the criticism: "The Democrats will attack us, what kind of a deal is that?"

He arrived with the polls against him. FiftyPlusOne's average gave Democrats a nine-point lead in the congressional vote on October 27, 52.2% to 43.4%. His approval stood at 32% in the Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26, just off its low. Sabato's Crystal Ball leans 225 House seats toward the Democrats, seven more than the 218 needed for a majority.

And the issue that weighs most is the wallet: for 84% of registered voters, according to Pew, the economy is "very important" to their vote. Gasoline is the part of the economy everyone pays for every week. That is where the ship comes in.

Desperation? No document measures intent. What can be measured is the limit of the play: in a PF Global poll for Politico, only 29% said they would be more likely to back Republicans if gasoline fell by a dollar a gallon.

2. Did Venezuela give that oil to the United States?

There is no record of it. It was delivered by a company in which Washington is a partner.

Before flying to Texas, Trump said Venezuela had sent him the cargo "as a gift" and that he was giving it to the United States. The release from its producer tells a different story. NABEP, the operator that has an agreement with the departments of State and War, said two tankers had carried one million barrels to Corpus Christi and that it delivered them "at no cost to the U.S. taxpayer."

The U.S. government holds 35% of NABEP's parent company and the right to buy 20% of its output at cost. In other words: the gift was made by a company to one of its owners.

On the Venezuelan side, silence. As of the close of October 27, Delcy Rodríguez's government had said nothing about the shipment. And NABEP's release leaves out what matters most to the country: whether that crude paid the royalty of up to 30% set by January's hydrocarbons law. The oil comes from deposits that, under Article 12 of the Constitution, "belong to the Republic."

At the price OPEC recorded for Merey in September, $93.75, that million barrels is worth about $94 million.

3. Did gasoline get cheaper thanks to Venezuelan oil?

No. It rose 52.7%.

In the week of January 5, two days after Maduro's capture, a gallon of regular gasoline cost $2.796 in the United States, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In the week of October 26 it cost $4.269.

Venezuelan crude did arrive. In the four weeks before the capture, the United States was buying about 145,000 barrels a day; in the four weeks to October 16, 551,000, according to the EIA's preliminary weekly data. That is almost four times as much, though below August's peak of 684,000. But it is less than 3% of the roughly 21 million barrels the country consumes every day. The million barrels at the rally lasts it about 68 minutes.

Brent sets the price, and another war moved Brent. The EIA dates the rise to the military action in the Middle East that began on February 28 and left the Strait of Hormuz "effectively closed." In three weeks, Brent went from $71 to $111.

On October 27, Trump wrote that gasoline prices "will soon come plummeting down." The EIA, part of his own Energy Department, expects gasoline to average "just under $3.60" a gallon in 2027: less than in October, more than in January.

Did anyone in the United States gain? Yes. Refiners on the Gulf of Mexico, which need heavy crude (why), and the custody account that collects the proceeds of Venezuelan crude sales at a Brent that doubled.

4. Is there a legal basis for any of this?

For holding the money, yes: U.S. law. For calling it spoils or annexing the country, no.

Holding the money. In January, Trump signed Executive Order 14373 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and declared a national emergency. The order routes the proceeds of Venezuelan crude sales into Treasury accounts, shields them from creditors and leaves their use to the Secretary of State. But it states in so many words that the money is "sovereign property of the Government of Venezuela," held in custody and "not as the property of the United States."

Calling it spoils. At the rally, Trump said "to the victor belong the spoils, right?" and spoke of "our recent war with Venezuela." His own order contradicts him. And if the word war is taken literally, so does the law of war: the 1907 Hague Regulations, in their chapter on occupied territory, say "pillage is formally forbidden," and the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 says "pillage is prohibited." If there was no war, there is no victor.

Annexing the country. "Let's make it the 51st state. And instead of a president, we'll have an election for a governor," he said. Venezuela's Constitution declares the Republic "irrevocably free and independent" and forbids ceding its territory to foreign states. The U.S. Constitution reserves the admission of new states to Congress. Trump has been repeating the idea since March; in May, Rodríguez replied that it "would never be contemplated."

The phrase does not help the contracts Washington promotes, either. That same October 27, a federal appeals court put in writing that the United States recognized Rodríguez's government, the counterparty with which oil contracts are signed under Venezuelan law. And there is an open question in the U.S. Congress itself: under what law the Pentagon took 35% of an oil company's parent. The law that created its Office of Strategic Capital lets it provide loans, loan guarantees and technical assistance, and four Democratic senators wrote that the statute "does not explicitly provide authority to take equity stakes in private oil companies" (NABEP and November 3).

5. Is Venezuela being plundered?

Each reader can choose the word. The documents show a country that does not control its money and cannot see the account.

This is what the documents say about who gets what:

Caracas is not a bystander. Rodríguez's government has not said whether it authorized the shipment or collected royalties. Its 2027 budget, submitted on October 14, still has no public figures. And on October 26 its Economy Ministry signed an agreement with the central bank that stakes next year's growth on "the increase in external oil revenue": the same revenue Washington holds. In September we wrote that the difference between custody and trophy would be settled by publishing a balance (the heist of the century). Neither government has done so.

Meanwhile, the minimum wage is still 130 bolívars: 15 cents a month. The $240 comprehensive income, paid in bonuses, does not cover even a third of a family's food basket, which cost $761.35 in September according to Cendas-FVM. More than five million people need urgent food assistance, according to the World Food Programme. Education, health and university workers called a national protest for Thursday, October 29.

The ship's $94 million is a month of food for about 123,000 Venezuelan families. No one is saying that money would go to them. What the documents say is simpler: the value exists, Venezuelan law and Trump's own order assign it the same owner, and neither government accounts for it.

What to watch

On November 2, the EIA publishes its weekly gasoline price. On November 3, the United States votes. Three documents would change this reading: the royalty the cargo paid, disclosed by NABEP or the Hydrocarbons Ministry; an official balance of the custody accounts; and a response from Caracas to the gift and to the 51st state.

Until then, Venezuelan oil will have served at a rally in three ways: as a gift, as spoils and as a campaign argument. In none of the three does Venezuela's signature appear.