The dialogue that underpins Venezuela’s transition is being prepared in Madrid — and starts without its central figure

On August 1 the formal table is seated between Delcy Rodríguez’s government and the opposition led by Dinorah Figuera, with the active accompaniment of the United States, to agree on a reform of the electoral arbiter. It is the process on which, ultimately, rest the de-facto recognition of the government and the durability of the license architecture that revived oil.

But it arrives half-assembled: the preparatory meetings are being held in Madrid, the participant lists are announced only that day, and the main opposition figure has just stepped back. On July 26, María Corina Machado and Edmundo González announced they will not take part — and, in parallel, convened citizen assemblies in all 335 municipalities for July 28. For the investor, the question is not whether the dialogue starts, but with how much legitimacy, and against what rival source of legitimacy.