The first full week after the financial reopening begins with two favorable moves consolidated over the weekend. Brent, which had closed Friday at $89.50 after Iran's announced reopening of Hormuz, reversed to $96.36 at Monday's Asian open after the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Tehran reasserted control over the Strait, and Iranian state media rejected the second round of talks planned in Islamabad. Estimated Merey returns to $85.86 — an operationally comfortable zone for the capex commitments from Chevron, Repsol and Shell signed last week. On the financial flank, the Venezuela 2023 sovereign bond closed Friday at 51.25 cents on the dollar — the highest since 2017 — reflecting the formal resumption with the IMF and World Bank announced during the Spring Meetings; El País documented on Saturday April 18 the potential claim of ~$5 billion in pandemic SDRs never used. The operating scenario on which all this occurs was already built: Vitol and Trafigura have been exporting Venezuelan crude since January under the $2 billion bilateral deal, India received a direct VLCC cargo of 2 million barrels of Merey at Jose for Reliance in April, and the US DOE placed country production at 1.2 million bpd mid-month. This week's question is not whether the framework exists — Pulse 26 closed confirming it — but whether it becomes flow: the first formal BCV currency auction under Luis Pérez, the first verifiable SWIFT wire, narrowing of the FX gap by Friday April 25. Petro's April 24 visit is the week's political-regional event.
↳ Pulse 26's architecture consolidated over this weekend with the price anchor restored and the sovereign curve at nine-year highs. The week now measures domestic execution: if the first formal BCV currency auction occurs before Friday, the FX gap narrows and the normalization thesis validates with real flow. If not, the regulatory framework will exist on paper but not in the market
Brent reversed over the weekend from Friday's $89.50 close to Monday's Asian open at $96.30 (+6.55%, +$5.92); WTI opened at $90.22 (+7.60%). The move responds to four events between Saturday and Monday: the US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran committed to a response, Iranian state media reported that the second round of talks planned in Islamabad will not take place, and analysts cited by Fortune described Hormuz as a combat zone. Estimated Merey recovers to $85.86.
Gulf News / Euronews / Fortune ↗+$5.92 en 48h · Merey $85.86The reversal restores the fiscal anchor that Friday's close had challenged and leaves Merey within the breakeven range of last week's deals, sized from $75. Each dollar of Brent equals approximately $400 million annually in fiscal revenue at 1.1 million bpd; the $6 rebound represents, on an annualized basis, some $2.4 billion of additional margin for PDVSA's operating cash. The relevant range for the rest of the cycle is now defined at $85–$100: if it holds, Chevron's Petroindependencia and Repsol's Petroquiriquire capex contracts advance on the planned timing. Indicator: NYMEX open 14:00 UTC; State Department communication on whether Washington insists on Islamabad; EIA weekly inventory report Wednesday.
The Venezuela 2023 sovereign bond closed the Friday April 17 session at 51.25 cents on the dollar — its highest since 2017 — rising 4.1 cents on the day. PDVSA 2021 gained 2.9 cents to 47 cents. The move coincides with the formal resumption of relations with the IMF and World Bank announced during the Washington Spring Meetings. El País documented on Saturday April 18 Venezuela's potential claim of approximately $5 billion in pandemic SDRs never used. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva conditioned any eventual program on closing data gaps and advancing reforms.
Bloomberg / El País / Invezz ↗VEN 2023 a 51.25¢ · DEG pendientes $5,000MThe 2023's quotation at 51.25 cents explicitly reincorporates the institutional dividend of the IMF and World Bank resumption. The data documented by El País over the weekend adds a concrete figure to the distressed thesis: $5 billion in pandemic SDRs Venezuela never activated, available as multilateral liquidity not conditioned on a formal program. This would allow the country to address operational arrears with multilaterals and suppliers before any negotiation table with private holders, altering the traditional order of a sovereign workout. For the investor: the 2023/PDVSA 2020 curve assumes an implicit recovery sustained while three indicators advance — IMF Article IV in 2026, technical route to the SDRs, political calendar without surprises. Indicator: intraday tick of VEN 2023 and PDVSA 2020 in today's session; first IMF technical mission to Caracas; publication of audited BCV data under Luis Pérez.
The Central Bank of Venezuela set on Monday April 20 the reference rate at Bs. 481.22 per dollar and the euro at Bs. 568.52, with a minimal variation of 0.20% from Friday's close. The reference FX gap remains above 20% opening the first full week under General License 57, issued April 14, which authorized the BCV and the three public banks to conduct operations in US dollars for the first time in seven years. Volume traded on the Caracas Stock Exchange during the April 13-17 week closed at Bs. 7,131.7 million, contracting 2.1% from the prior week.
BCV ↗BCV Bs. 481.22 · brecha sobre 20%The FX gap is the operational thermometer of GL-57. The regulatory architecture authorizes the BCV and public banks to operate in dollars, but authorizing does not equal supplying: the week's opening data confirms that effective State dollar flow to the private sector has not yet materialized. The design the private sector has put on the table is explicit — Conindustria, through its president Tito López, proposed a currency auction 'monthly, cyclical and including all productive sectors' and projects close to $6 billion entering the formal system under the new framework; in parallel, José Grasso Vecchio (president of the Caracas Stock Exchange) described on April 16 the expected effect of GL-56 and GL-57 as 'the State selling dollars to the private sector with efficiency not seen in years'. For the investor with Venezuelan corporate balance-sheet exposure — importers, manufacturing, commerce — the normalization thesis carries a real operational cost while the gap persists: prices continue forming outside the official channel, bolivar cash loses value, and the real weight of dollar corporate debt adjusts with lag. The next move depends on three concrete technical milestones: the first BCV communication under Luis Pérez on auction mechanism, the formal decree of the scheme, and execution of the first public call. Indicator: weekly FX gap close on Friday April 25 — if it remains above 20% after five sessions under GL-57 in full force, implementation slips beyond April.